Military Trial Results · Analysis
Understanding Trends in Military Practice
Analysis of real court-martial records: what gets charged, how cases end, what sentences look like, how experienced the lawyers of record were, and what changed when the law did.
Every number is computed from the Military Trial Results data, built from the services' public court-martial records. Each post says how many cases it rests on, the years covered, and how we counted. Read how this data was built before citing it.
Browse the Analysis
- By InstallationBases and regions, by time period
- By OffenseUCMJ articles, rising and falling charges
- By ServiceArmy, Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps
- By YearWhat each year and month looked like
- SentencesConfinement, discharges, judge alone vs. members
- Counsel ExperiencePrior cases of the lawyers of record
- Law ChangesBefore and after the major reforms
- Episode CompanionsThe numbers behind podcast episodes
Federal Prosecution Analysis
How do federal prosecutions compare with courts-martial? These posts use the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of everyone sentenced in federal court and the Federal Judicial Center's records of every federal defendant whose case ended, including dismissals and acquittals, for fiscal years 2016 to 2025. They cover sentences, guilty pleas, trials and acquittals, mandatory minimums, and supervised release, offense by offense. Where a federal crime has a close counterpart in the UCMJ, the post sets the two side by side. Where it doesn't, the post reports the federal numbers on their own. For how military law has moved toward the federal system, start with Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System.
Latest Analysis
§2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2022
Of the 118 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2022 with §2M5.2 as the primary guideline, 100 (85%) received a prison term and 12 (10%) received probation only. The median prison term was 25 months, and 96% pleaded guilty.
§2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2021
In fiscal year 2021, 159 people were sentenced under §2M5.2, and 44% (70 people) received a sentence within the guideline range. The median prison term was 30 months, close to the 29-month median for all federal cases that year.
§2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2020
In fiscal year 2020, the median prison term under §2M5.2 was 28 months for 108 of the 119 people sentenced (91%). The median for everyone sentenced in federal court under every guideline that year was 18 months. 98% of the §2M5.2 group pleaded guilty.
§2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2019
Federal courts sentenced 141 people in fiscal year 2019 with §2M5.2 as the primary guideline. The median prison term was 24 months, and only 22% of sentences (31 people) were within the guideline range. 99% pleaded guilty.
§2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2018
In fiscal year 2018, 50% of the 131 people sentenced under §2M5.2 (65 people) received a sentence below the guideline range without a government request. Only 27% (35 people) were sentenced within the range. The median prison term was 30 months.
§2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2017
In fiscal year 2017, 104 of the 108 people sentenced under §2M5.2 (96%) pleaded guilty, and 4 were convicted after a trial. 99 people (92%) were sentenced to prison, with a median prison term of 27 months.
§2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2016
In fiscal year 2016, 100 people were sentenced in federal court with §2M5.2 as the primary guideline. 89 of them (89%) received a prison term, and the median prison term was 32 months. 99 of the 100 (99%) pleaded guilty.
§2D2.1 Unlawful Possession: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2025
All 57 people sentenced under §2D2.1 in fiscal year 2025 pleaded guilty (100%), and none was convicted after a trial. Of the 57, 37 (65%) went to prison, and the median prison term was 0 months. Within the guideline range were 86%.
§2D2.1 Unlawful Possession: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2024
In fiscal year 2024, 67 people were sentenced under §2D2.1, and the median prison term among the 38 sent to prison (57%) was 0.2 months. No restitution was ordered: 0 of 67 (0%). A fine was ordered for 27 people (40%).
§2D2.1 Unlawful Possession: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2023
In fiscal year 2023, a mandatory minimum prison term applied to 15 of the 78 people with that information recorded (19%) under §2D2.1. Of the 80 people sentenced, 45 (56%) went to prison, with a median of 1.1 months. Within the guideline range were 86%.
§2D2.1 Unlawful Possession: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2022
In fiscal year 2022, 129 people were sentenced under §2D2.1, and 8% were sentenced above the guideline range. Of the group, 60 (47%) went to prison, with a median of 2.7 months. A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 14 people (11%).
§2D2.1 Unlawful Possession: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2021
In fiscal year 2021, the median prison term was 0.1 months after a guilty plea and 26.1 months after a trial under §2D2.1. The trial figure is based on 2 people, so it is not a general comparison. Of 113 people sentenced, 44 (39%) went to prison, with a median of 0.3 months.
Go deeper: Military Trial Results (every case, members) · Know Your Judge · Learn Your Lawyer (free)
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