§2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2016
In fiscal year 2016, 100 people were sentenced in federal court with §2M5.2 as the primary guideline. 89 of them (89%) received a prison term, and the median prison term was 32 months. 99 of the 100 (99%) pleaded guilty.
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In brief: In fiscal year 2016, 100 people were sentenced in federal court with §2M5.2 as the primary guideline. 89 of them (89%) received a prison term, and the median prison term was 32 months. 99 of the 100 (99%) pleaded guilty.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 100 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2016. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
What Did Fiscal Year 2016 Look Like Under §2M5.2?
The Guidelines Manual titles §2M5.2 "Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License." The U.S. Sentencing Commission counted 100 people whose cases used this guideline as the primary guideline. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
The Commission places all 100 cases in its National Defense offense type. The fiscal year ran from October 1, 2015 to September 30, 2016.
Of the 100, 89 (89%) were sentenced to prison and 8 (8%) received probation only. Probation only means no prison and no other confinement.
Prison Terms in Fiscal Year 2016
Among those sent to prison, the median prison term was 32 months (2.7 years). A quarter received 46 months or more, and a quarter received 18 months or less. These are the terms imposed, not the time actually served.
No one in this group was subject to a mandatory minimum prison term. The sheet records that information for all 100 people, and the count was 0 (0%).
83 people (83%) were ordered to serve supervised release after prison. The median supervised release term was 36 months. A fine was ordered for 9 people (9%), and restitution for 3 (3%).
Pleas and the One Trial
Nearly everyone pleaded guilty: 99 of 100 (99%). 1 person was convicted after a trial.
The median prison term after a guilty plea was 31.5 months. The median after a trial was 78 months, but that figure rests on 1 person, so it says very little about trials in general.
Among the guilty pleas, 85% had a written plea agreement and 15% were straight pleas with no agreement. In the group as a whole, 86% were in the lowest criminal history category I and 0% were in the highest, category VI.
Where Sentences Fell Against the Guideline Range
30% of the sentences (30 people) were within the guideline range. 45% (45 people) were below the range at the government's request. 23% (23 people) were below the range without a government request, and 2% (2 people) were above it.
Sentences below the range were therefore more common than sentences within it. The records do not explain the reasons in individual cases.
How Does This Compare With Other Years and Other Guidelines?
Across fiscal years 2016 to 2025, §2M5.2 covered 1,391 people. 90% went to prison, the median prison term was 27 months, 98% pleaded guilty, and 32% received sentences within the guideline range.
For everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2016 under every guideline, there were 67,742 people. Their median prison term was 24 months, 97% pleaded guilty, and 49% were sentenced within the range. The median prison term for §2M5.2 in 2016 was higher than that overall median, and within-range sentences were less common.
The next fiscal year, 2017, had 108 people under §2M5.2, a median prison term of 27 months, and 31% of sentences within the range. The table below lists every year. Counts of around 100 people are small, and one year does not show a trend.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 100 | 32 months | 99% |
| 2017 | 108 | 27 months | 96% |
| 2018 | 131 | 30 months | 95% |
| 2019 | 141 | 24 months | 99% |
| 2020 | 119 | 28 months | 98% |
| 2021 | 159 | 30 months | more than 99% |
| 2022 | 118 | 25 months | 96% |
| 2023 | 168 | 28 months | 99% |
| 2024 | 178 | 24 months | more than 99% |
| 2025 | 169 | 24 months | 99% |
What These Records Cannot Show
The Commission's data counts only people who were convicted and sentenced. Acquittals and dismissals are not in it. There is no close court-martial counterpart for this guideline in the approved crosswalk, so this post reports the federal numbers on their own.
The records also do not describe the facts of any case, the items exported, or the reasons a judge chose a sentence.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2016 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2M5.2 (100), U.S. Sentencing Commission individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- §2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2017 (previous or next fiscal year)
- How Often Federal Judges Sentence Outside the Guideline Range
- Mandatory Minimums: How Many Federal Sentences Are Set by Congress
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.