§2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2022
Of the 118 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2022 with §2M5.2 as the primary guideline, 100 (85%) received a prison term and 12 (10%) received probation only. The median prison term was 25 months, and 96% pleaded guilty.
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Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › §2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment › §2M5.2: FY2022
In brief: Of the 118 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2022 with §2M5.2 as the primary guideline, 100 (85%) received a prison term and 12 (10%) received probation only. The median prison term was 25 months, and 96% pleaded guilty.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 118 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2022. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Prison and Probation Under §2M5.2 in Fiscal Year 2022
The U.S. Sentencing Commission counted 118 people in this group. 100 of them (85%) were sentenced to prison. 12 (10%) received probation only, which means no prison and no other confinement.
The median prison term was 25 months (2.1 years). A quarter of those sent to prison received 46 months or more, and a quarter received 12 months or less. These are the terms imposed, not time served.
The share sent to prison was 85% in 2022. Across fiscal years 2016 to 2025, the share was 90%, so 2022 was lower than the all-years figure.
Guilty Pleas and Trial Convictions
113 people (96%) pleaded guilty, and 5 were convicted after a trial. The median prison term after a guilty plea was 24 months. After a trial it was 57 months, based on 5 people sent to prison.
A group of 5 trial cases is still small. The comparison shows how these particular cases ended and does not predict what a trial would produce.
Among the guilty pleas, 71% had a written plea agreement and 27% were straight pleas with no agreement.
Sentences and the Guideline Range
38 people (32%) were sentenced within the guideline range. 29 people (25%) were below the range at the government's request, and 50 people (42%) were below the range without a government request. 1 person (less than 1%) was above the range.
For everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2022 under every guideline, there were 64,142 people. 42% of them were within the range, the median prison term was 30 months, and 97% pleaded guilty. The §2M5.2 median was lower than the all-guidelines median, and within-range sentences were less common.
Fines, Supervised Release, and Mandatory Minimums
A fine was ordered for 15 people (13%). Restitution was ordered for 0 (0%). 95 people (81%) were ordered to serve supervised release, with a median term of 36 months.
No mandatory minimum prison term applied to any of the 118 people. 85% were in the lowest criminal history category, category I, and 0% were in the highest, category VI.
What Is §2M5.2, and How Do the Neighboring Years Compare?
The Guidelines Manual titles §2M5.2 "Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License." The Commission places the cases in the National Defense offense type. The fiscal year ran from October 1, 2021 to September 30, 2022.
In fiscal year 2021, 159 people were sentenced under this guideline, the median prison term was 30 months, and 44% were within the range. In fiscal year 2023, 168 people were sentenced, the median was 28 months, and 35% were within the range. The table lists every year. One year of 118 people is a small group and is not a trend.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 100 | 32 months | 99% |
| 2017 | 108 | 27 months | 96% |
| 2018 | 131 | 30 months | 95% |
| 2019 | 141 | 24 months | 99% |
| 2020 | 119 | 28 months | 98% |
| 2021 | 159 | 30 months | more than 99% |
| 2022 | 118 | 25 months | 96% |
| 2023 | 168 | 28 months | 99% |
| 2024 | 178 | 24 months | more than 99% |
| 2025 | 169 | 24 months | 99% |
What the Records Cannot Answer
Acquittals and dismissals are not in the Commission's data, only convictions that led to a sentence. The approved crosswalk has no close court-martial counterpart for this guideline, so the numbers here are federal numbers on their own. The records also do not explain why any sentence was set where it was.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2022 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2M5.2 (118), U.S. Sentencing Commission individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- §2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2021 (previous or next fiscal year)
- §2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2023 (previous or next fiscal year)
- How Often Federal Judges Sentence Outside the Guideline Range
- Mandatory Minimums: How Many Federal Sentences Are Set by Congress
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.