§2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2019
Federal courts sentenced 141 people in fiscal year 2019 with §2M5.2 as the primary guideline. The median prison term was 24 months, and only 22% of sentences (31 people) were within the guideline range. 99% pleaded guilty.
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Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › §2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment › §2M5.2: FY2019
In brief: Federal courts sentenced 141 people in fiscal year 2019 with §2M5.2 as the primary guideline. The median prison term was 24 months, and only 22% of sentences (31 people) were within the guideline range. 99% pleaded guilty.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 141 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2019. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
The Median Prison Term in Fiscal Year 2019
127 of the 141 people (90%) received a prison term under §2M5.2 in fiscal year 2019, according to the U.S. Sentencing Commission. The median prison term for those 127 people was 24 months (2 years).
A quarter received 36 months or more, and a quarter received 13 months or less. 10 people (7%) received probation only, with no prison or other confinement.
The median is lower than the median of 27 months for all fiscal years 2016 to 2025 under this guideline. It is higher than the median of 21 months for everyone sentenced in federal court in 2019 under every guideline. That all-guidelines group had 76,538 people.
Few Sentences Were Within the Range
The guideline range is the sentencing range the Guidelines Manual produces for each case. In fiscal year 2019, 31 people (22%) were sentenced within it. 47 people (33%) were below the range at the government's request, and 63 people (45%) were below it without a government request. No one was above the range.
Across all guidelines in 2019, 51% of sentences were within the range. Within-range sentences were therefore less often the result under §2M5.2. The records do not explain the reasons in individual cases.
Almost All Cases Ended in a Guilty Plea
139 people (99%) pleaded guilty, and 2 were convicted after a trial. The median prison term after a guilty plea was 24 months. After a trial it was 20 months, based on 2 people. A comparison built on 2 people is too small to support a general statement about trials.
85% of the guilty pleas came with a written plea agreement, and 15% were straight pleas with no agreement.
Mandatory Minimums, Release, and Financial Orders
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 1 of the 141 people (less than 1%). 99 people (70%) were ordered to serve supervised release after prison, and the median supervised release term was 36 months.
A fine was ordered for 16 people (11%), and restitution for 3 (2%). In the group, 92% were in the lowest criminal history category, category I, and 1% were in the highest, category VI.
Where Fiscal Year 2019 Fits in the Series
The Commission's offense type for all 141 cases is National Defense. The guideline is titled "Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License," and the fiscal year ran from October 1, 2018 to September 30, 2019.
In fiscal year 2018, 131 people were sentenced under §2M5.2, with a median prison term of 30 months and 27% within the range. In fiscal year 2020, there were 119 people, a median prison term of 28 months, and 35% within the range.
Over fiscal years 2016 to 2025, the guideline covered 1,391 people. 90% went to prison, 98% pleaded guilty, and 32% were within the range. The table shows each year. A single year with this few people is a small group, and this post does not claim a trend.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 100 | 32 months | 99% |
| 2017 | 108 | 27 months | 96% |
| 2018 | 131 | 30 months | 95% |
| 2019 | 141 | 24 months | 99% |
| 2020 | 119 | 28 months | 98% |
| 2021 | 159 | 30 months | more than 99% |
| 2022 | 118 | 25 months | 96% |
| 2023 | 168 | 28 months | 99% |
| 2024 | 178 | 24 months | more than 99% |
| 2025 | 169 | 24 months | 99% |
What Cannot Be Learned Here
The data covers only people convicted and sentenced, so acquittals and dismissals are missing. The approved crosswalk lists no close court-martial counterpart, so this post reports federal numbers alone. Prison terms are terms imposed, not time served.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2019 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2M5.2 (141), U.S. Sentencing Commission individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- §2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2018 (previous or next fiscal year)
- §2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2020 (previous or next fiscal year)
- How Often Federal Judges Sentence Outside the Guideline Range
- Mandatory Minimums: How Many Federal Sentences Are Set by Congress
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.