§2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2021
In fiscal year 2021, 159 people were sentenced under §2M5.2, and 44% (70 people) received a sentence within the guideline range. The median prison term was 30 months, close to the 29-month median for all federal cases that year.
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Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › §2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment › §2M5.2: FY2021
In brief: In fiscal year 2021, 159 people were sentenced under §2M5.2, and 44% (70 people) received a sentence within the guideline range. The median prison term was 30 months, close to the 29-month median for all federal cases that year.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 159 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2021. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Within-Range Sentences Under §2M5.2 in Fiscal Year 2021
The guideline range is the sentencing range that the Guidelines Manual produces for a case. In fiscal year 2021, 70 of the 159 people sentenced under §2M5.2 (44%) received a sentence within it.
35 people (22%) were below the range at the government's request, and 54 people (34%) were below the range without a government request. No one was above the range.
For all 57,287 people sentenced in federal court that year under every guideline, 43% were within the range. These shares are about the same. The 44% for §2M5.2 is higher than the 32% for the guideline across all fiscal years 2016 to 2025. The records do not explain why.
Prison Terms and Probation
147 of the 159 people (92%) were sentenced to prison. 10 (6%) received probation only, with no prison or other confinement.
The median prison term was 30 months (2.5 years). A quarter received 46 months or more, and a quarter received 14 months or less. The median for everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2021 was 29 months, so the medians are close. The fiscal year ran from October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021.
One Person Went to Trial
158 people (more than 99%) pleaded guilty. 1 person was convicted after a trial and received a prison term of 63 months, compared with a median of 30 months after a guilty plea. One person cannot stand for trials in general.
Among the guilty pleas, 66% had a written plea agreement and 33% were straight pleas with no agreement.
Other Orders and Criminal History
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 0 of the 159 people. Supervised release was ordered for 131 people (82%), with a median term of 36 months. A fine was ordered for 14 people (9%), and no one was ordered to pay restitution.
84% of the group was in the lowest criminal history category, category I. Less than 1% was in the highest, category VI.
Comparing Years and the Whole Period
In fiscal year 2020, 119 people were sentenced under §2M5.2, the median prison term was 28 months, and 35% were within the range. In fiscal year 2022, 118 people were sentenced, the median was 25 months, and 32% were within the range.
For fiscal years 2016 to 2025 together, the guideline covered 1,391 people. 90% went to prison, the median prison term was 27 months, 98% pleaded guilty, and 32% were within the range. The 2021 count of 159 people is a small group, and one year does not show a trend.
The guideline is titled "Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License." The Commission files these cases under National Defense.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 100 | 32 months | 99% |
| 2017 | 108 | 27 months | 96% |
| 2018 | 131 | 30 months | 95% |
| 2019 | 141 | 24 months | 99% |
| 2020 | 119 | 28 months | 98% |
| 2021 | 159 | 30 months | more than 99% |
| 2022 | 118 | 25 months | 96% |
| 2023 | 168 | 28 months | 99% |
| 2024 | 178 | 24 months | more than 99% |
| 2025 | 169 | 24 months | 99% |
Limits of These Records
Only people who were convicted and sentenced are counted, so acquittals and dismissals are not in the data. The approved crosswalk has no close court-martial counterpart for this guideline. This post therefore reports the federal numbers on their own.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2021 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2M5.2 (159), U.S. Sentencing Commission individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- §2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2020 (previous or next fiscal year)
- §2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2022 (previous or next fiscal year)
- How Often Federal Judges Sentence Outside the Guideline Range
- Mandatory Minimums: How Many Federal Sentences Are Set by Congress
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.