§2K1.4 Arson: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2024
Of the 84 people sentenced under §2K1.4 in fiscal year 2024, 16 (19%) received a sentence above the guideline range, and 34 (40%) were within it. The median prison term was 60 months (5 years), and 81 people (96%) were sentenced to prison.
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Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › §2K1.4 Arson › §2K1.4: FY2024
In brief: Of the 84 people sentenced under §2K1.4 in fiscal year 2024, 16 (19%) received a sentence above the guideline range, and 34 (40%) were within it. The median prison term was 60 months (5 years), and 81 people (96%) were sentenced to prison.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 84 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2024. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Sentences Above the Guideline Range
The guideline range is the span of prison terms the Sentencing Guidelines recommend for a case. In fiscal year 2024, 34 of the 84 sentences (40%) were within it. 16 sentences (19%) were above it.
17 sentences (20%) were below the range at the government's request, and another 17 (20%) were below it without that request. In fiscal year 2023, 46% of sentences under this guideline were within the range, and in fiscal year 2025 the figure was 53%.
Prison Terms and Probation
81 of the 84 people (96%) received a prison term, and 3 (4%) received probation only. Among those sent to prison, the median term was 60 months. A quarter received 78 months or more, and a quarter received 36 months or less.
The median for all guidelines in fiscal year 2024 was 30 months. Across fiscal years 2016 to 2025, the median for §2K1.4 was 60 months.
Pleas, Trials, and Mandatory Minimums
78 people (93%) pleaded guilty, and 6 were convicted after a trial. The median prison term was 60 months after a guilty plea and 87 months after a trial. The trial group is small, so the comparison should be read with care.
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 48 of the 84 people with that information recorded (57%). Of the guilty pleas, 91% had a written plea agreement and 8% did not.
Supervised Release, Fines, and Restitution
82 people (98%) were ordered to serve supervised release after prison, and the median term was 36 months.
A fine was ordered for 2 people (2%). Restitution was ordered for 49 (58%). On criminal history, 40% were in category I, the lowest, and 13% were in category VI, the highest.
Context From the Series
The Commission labels these cases with the offense type Arson. The guideline carries the title "Arson; Property Damage by Use of Explosives." Fiscal year 2024 ran from October 1, 2023 to September 30, 2024.
Across fiscal years 2016 to 2025, 727 people were sentenced under this guideline. 45% of those sentences were within the range and 93% were guilty pleas. For every guideline in fiscal year 2024, 61,678 people were sentenced and 46% were within the range. The table shows each year.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 63 | 48 months | 92% |
| 2017 | 53 | 60 months | 94% |
| 2018 | 52 | 58.5 months | 87% |
| 2019 | 66 | 60 months | 85% |
| 2020 | 47 | 60 months | 85% |
| 2021 | 78 | 48 months | 97% |
| 2022 | 103 | 51 months | 96% |
| 2023 | 105 | 60 months | 98% |
| 2024 | 84 | 60 months | 93% |
| 2025 | 76 | 60 months | 93% |
What the Data Cannot Answer
The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count, so other counts in the same case are not described. The numbers describe 84 people in one fiscal year, which is a modest count, and no single year should be read as a trend.
The Commission's files include only people who were convicted and sentenced, so they cannot show acquittals or dismissed cases. They also do not show why a sentence was above or below the range.
No close court-martial counterpart exists in the approved crosswalk. This post reports the federal numbers on their own.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2024 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2K1.4 (84), U.S. Sentencing Commission individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2K1.4 Arson: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- §2K1.4 Arson: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2023 (previous or next fiscal year)
- §2K1.4 Arson: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2025 (previous or next fiscal year)
- How Often Federal Judges Sentence Outside the Guideline Range
- Mandatory Minimums: How Many Federal Sentences Are Set by Congress
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.