§2K1.4 Arson: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2025
All 76 people (100%) sentenced under §2K1.4 in fiscal year 2025 received a prison term, and all 76 were ordered to serve supervised release afterward. The median prison term was 60 months (5 years). 71 people (93%) pleaded guilty.
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Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › §2K1.4 Arson › §2K1.4: FY2025
In brief: All 76 people (100%) sentenced under §2K1.4 in fiscal year 2025 received a prison term, and all 76 were ordered to serve supervised release afterward. The median prison term was 60 months (5 years). 71 people (93%) pleaded guilty.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 76 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2025. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Every Person Sentenced Received Prison
In fiscal year 2025, the U.S. Sentencing Commission counted 76 people with §2K1.4 as the primary guideline. None received probation only. All 76 were sentenced to prison, and the median prison term was 60 months.
A quarter received 71 months or more, and a quarter received 24 months or less. Across fiscal years 2016 to 2025, 96% of people sentenced under this guideline went to prison, so fiscal year 2025 is higher than that all-years share.
Supervised Release, Fines, and Restitution
76 people (100%) were ordered to serve supervised release after prison, and the median term was 36 months.
A fine was ordered for 4 people (5%). Restitution was ordered for 51 (67%).
Trial Sentences Compared With Plea Sentences
71 of the 76 people (93%) pleaded guilty, and 5 were convicted after a trial. 93% of the guilty pleas had a written plea agreement, and 7% were straight pleas.
The median prison term was 60 months after a guilty plea and 120 months after a trial. Only 5 people were convicted at trial, so that number should not be treated as a pattern.
Mandatory Minimums and Range Position
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 46 of the 76 people with that information recorded (61%).
40 sentences (53%) were within the guideline range. 18 (24%) were below the range at the government's request, and 9 (12%) were below it without a government request. 9 sentences (12%) were above the range. In fiscal year 2024, 40% of sentences under this guideline were within the range.
How Fiscal Year 2025 Fits the Full Record
The guideline is titled "Arson; Property Damage by Use of Explosives" in the Sentencing Guidelines Manual, and the offense type in the Commission's data is Arson. Fiscal year 2025 ran from October 1, 2024 to September 30, 2025.
For all guidelines in fiscal year 2025, 66,662 people were sentenced, the median prison term was 24 months, and 51% of sentences were within the range. Across fiscal years 2016 to 2025, 727 people were sentenced under §2K1.4, and 45% were within the range.
The table shows the count, median, and plea rate for each year. On criminal history, 46% of people in fiscal year 2025 were in category I, the lowest, and 12% were in category VI, the highest.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 63 | 48 months | 92% |
| 2017 | 53 | 60 months | 94% |
| 2018 | 52 | 58.5 months | 87% |
| 2019 | 66 | 60 months | 85% |
| 2020 | 47 | 60 months | 85% |
| 2021 | 78 | 48 months | 97% |
| 2022 | 103 | 51 months | 96% |
| 2023 | 105 | 60 months | 98% |
| 2024 | 84 | 60 months | 93% |
| 2025 | 76 | 60 months | 93% |
Limits on What These Records Show
A median is the middle value when prison terms are listed from shortest to longest. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count, so a person's other counts are not described here.
The data covers only people who were convicted and sentenced. It has no acquittals and no dismissed cases, and it does not give reasons for any sentence.
The approved crosswalk has no close court-martial counterpart for this guideline, so the post stands on federal numbers alone.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2025 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2K1.4 (76), U.S. Sentencing Commission individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2K1.4 Arson: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- §2K1.4 Arson: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2024 (previous or next fiscal year)
- How Often Federal Judges Sentence Outside the Guideline Range
- Mandatory Minimums: How Many Federal Sentences Are Set by Congress
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.