§2K1.4 Arson: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2023
The U.S. Sentencing Commission recorded 105 people sentenced under §2K1.4 in fiscal year 2023. 101 (96%) received a prison term, with a median of 60 months (5 years), and 103 (98%) pleaded guilty. 2 people were convicted after a trial.
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Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › §2K1.4 Arson › §2K1.4: FY2023
In brief: The U.S. Sentencing Commission recorded 105 people sentenced under §2K1.4 in fiscal year 2023. 101 (96%) received a prison term, with a median of 60 months (5 years), and 103 (98%) pleaded guilty. 2 people were convicted after a trial.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 105 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2023. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
What Fiscal Year 2023 Shows for §2K1.4
The Commission's count for this guideline was 105 people in fiscal year 2023. In fiscal year 2022 it was 103, and in fiscal year 2024 it was 84.
Of the 105 people, 101 (96%) were sentenced to prison and 3 (3%) received probation only. The median prison term was 60 months. A quarter received 72 months or more, and a quarter received 36 months or less.
Guilty Pleas Were Nearly Universal
103 of the 105 people (98%) pleaded guilty. This is higher than the 93% plea rate for this guideline across fiscal years 2016 to 2025, and about the same as the 97% for all guidelines in fiscal year 2023.
Among the guilty pleas, 89% had a written plea agreement, and 11% were straight pleas. The median prison term was 60 months after a guilty plea and 78.5 months after a trial. Only 2 people went to trial, so that comparison is very thin.
Criminal History Categories
35% of the people were in criminal history category I, the lowest. 17% were in category VI, the highest.
Court-martial records have no criminal history field, and the records here do not link a person's category to the length of the prison term.
The Guideline Range and Mandatory Minimums
48 sentences (46%) were within the guideline range. 28 (27%) were below the range at the government's request, and 17 (16%) were below it without a government request. 12 sentences (11%) were above the range.
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 55 of the 105 people with that information recorded (52%). For all guidelines in fiscal year 2023, 42% of sentences were within the range.
Release Conditions and Money Orders
100 people (95%) were ordered to serve supervised release after prison. The median term was 36 months.
A fine was ordered for 2 people (2%). Restitution was ordered for 73 (70%).
Table of Fiscal Years 2016 to 2025
The Sentencing Guidelines Manual titles §2K1.4 "Arson; Property Damage by Use of Explosives," and the Commission lists these cases as the offense type Arson. Fiscal year 2023 ran from October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023.
Over fiscal years 2016 to 2025, 727 people were sentenced under this guideline and 45% of sentences were within the range. The table gives each year.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 63 | 48 months | 92% |
| 2017 | 53 | 60 months | 94% |
| 2018 | 52 | 58.5 months | 87% |
| 2019 | 66 | 60 months | 85% |
| 2020 | 47 | 60 months | 85% |
| 2021 | 78 | 48 months | 97% |
| 2022 | 103 | 51 months | 96% |
| 2023 | 105 | 60 months | 98% |
| 2024 | 84 | 60 months | 93% |
| 2025 | 76 | 60 months | 93% |
Limits of This Post
A median is the middle value when prison terms are listed from shortest to longest. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count, so other counts in a case are not described here.
Only people who were convicted and sentenced appear in this data. Acquittals and dismissals do not.
The records do not explain why counts or sentences change between years. No close court-martial counterpart for this guideline is in the approved crosswalk, so this post reports federal numbers alone.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2023 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2K1.4 (105), U.S. Sentencing Commission individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2K1.4 Arson: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- §2K1.4 Arson: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2022 (previous or next fiscal year)
- §2K1.4 Arson: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2024 (previous or next fiscal year)
- How Often Federal Judges Sentence Outside the Guideline Range
- Mandatory Minimums: How Many Federal Sentences Are Set by Congress
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.