§2K1.4 Arson: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025
Nearly all of the 727 people sentenced under guideline §2K1.4, Arson, in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 went to prison: 698 (96%). The median term was 60 months (5 years), and a mandatory minimum applied to 407 people (56%).
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In brief: Nearly all of the 727 people sentenced under guideline §2K1.4, Arson, in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 went to prison: 698 (96%). The median term was 60 months (5 years), and a mandatory minimum applied to 407 people (56%).
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 727 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Almost Every Arson Sentence Included Prison
Guideline §2K1.4 is titled "Arson" in the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines Manual. The Sentencing Commission classifies all 727 people in this group as Arson cases.
Prison was ordered for 698 (96%). Probation only was ordered for 22 (3%). The median prison term was 60 months. A quarter received 71 months or more, and a quarter received 30 months or less.
The Role of Mandatory Minimums
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 407 people (56%).
The records do not show how the minimum shaped each sentence. They show only that it applied. The 60-month median for the full group covers a wide range of terms: a quarter of those sent to prison received 30 months or less, while a quarter received 71 months or more.
Guilty Pleas and Trials
Guilty pleas numbered 676 of 727 (93%), and 51 people were convicted after a trial. Among guilty pleas, 91% had a written plea agreement and 9% did not.
The median prison term was 60 months after a guilty plea and 97 months after a trial. All 51 people convicted at trial were sent to prison. Because every trial conviction led to prison, the trial median covers the whole trial group, not only part of it.
Sentences Against the Guideline Range
A sentence within the range was given to 330 people (45%). Below the range at the government's request: 188 (26%). Below the range without that request: 129 (18%).
Above the range: 80 (11%).
Supervised Release, Fines, and Restitution
Supervised release followed prison for 695 people (96%), with a median term of 36 months. Supervised release for life was given to 2 people.
A fine was ordered for 18 (2%), while restitution was ordered for 516 (71%). In criminal history, 44% were in the lowest category and 12% in the highest.
Changes Over the Years
In fiscal years 2016 to 2019, 234 people were sentenced and the median prison term was 60 months. In fiscal years 2020 to 2025, 493 people were sentenced and the median was also 60 months.
The yearly count was 47 in 2020 and 105 in 2023. Yearly medians were 60 months in most years and 48 months in 2016 and 2021. The share who pleaded guilty ranged from 85% to 98% by year, and was lowest in 2019 and 2020. The yearly table also shows the count of people sentenced and the median for each year, so a reader can compare any single year with the 60-month median for the full period.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 63 | 48 months | 92% |
| 2017 | 53 | 60 months | 94% |
| 2018 | 52 | 58.5 months | 87% |
| 2019 | 66 | 60 months | 85% |
| 2020 | 47 | 60 months | 85% |
| 2021 | 78 | 48 months | 97% |
| 2022 | 103 | 51 months | 96% |
| 2023 | 105 | 60 months | 98% |
| 2024 | 84 | 60 months | 93% |
| 2025 | 76 | 60 months | 93% |
What the Data Leaves Out
Only people who were convicted and sentenced are counted. Acquittals and dismissals are not. Terms are those imposed, not time served.
The crosswalk lists no close court-martial counterpart for this guideline, so the post reports federal numbers alone.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2K1.4 (727), from the U.S. Sentencing Commission's individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2K2.1 Unlawful Receipt, Possession, or Transportation of Firearms or Ammunition: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- §2K1.3 Unlawful Receipt, Possession, or Transportation of Explosive Materials: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- §2K2.5 Possession of Firearm or Dangerous Weapon in Federal Facility: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- §2K1.1 Failure to Report Theft of Explosive Materials: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.