§2D1.1 Unlawful Manufacturing, Importing, Exporting, or Trafficking (Including Possession with Intent to Commit These Offenses): Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025
In fiscal years 2016 to 2025, 181,468 people were sentenced in federal court under §2D1.1, the guideline for drug manufacturing, importing, exporting, and trafficking. 96% received a prison term, and the median prison term was 60 months. 98% pleaded guilty, and a mandatory minimum prison term applie
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In brief: In fiscal years 2016 to 2025, 181,468 people were sentenced in federal court under §2D1.1, the guideline for drug manufacturing, importing, exporting, and trafficking. 96% received a prison term, and the median prison term was 60 months. 98% pleaded guilty, and a mandatory minimum prison term applied to 61%.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 181,468 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
What Does Guideline §2D1.1 Cover?
The U.S. Sentencing Guidelines Manual titles §2D1.1 "Unlawful Manufacturing, Importing, Exporting, or Trafficking (Including Possession with Intent to Commit These Offenses); Attempt or Conspiracy." In plain terms, the title names making drugs, bringing them into or out of the country, and trafficking them. It also names possession with intent to commit those offenses, along with attempts and conspiracies.
The numbers below count people whose primary guideline was §2D1.1. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count. The records include only people who were convicted and sentenced, so acquittals and dismissals are not counted.
How Many People Were Sentenced, and to What?
The U.S. Sentencing Commission recorded 181,468 sentenced people in this group over fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Of these, 174,910 (96%) received a prison term. Another 4,939 (3%) received probation only, with no prison or other confinement.
Among those sent to prison, the median prison term was 60 months (5 years). A quarter received 120 months or more, and a quarter received 30 months or less. 214 people received a life sentence. The terms are the ones imposed, not the time served.
Guilty Pleas Versus Trials
Nearly everyone pleaded guilty: 177,431 of 181,468 (98%). 4,037 people were convicted after a trial. Among guilty pleas, 91% had a written plea agreement, and 9% were straight pleas with no agreement.
The prison terms differ by how the case ended. The median prison term after a guilty plea was 60 months. After a trial it was 180 months, based on 4,015 people convicted at trial and sent to prison. The records show the difference but cannot show what caused it.
Mandatory Minimums and the Guideline Range
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 110,668 people (61%). The sheet does not say which sentences were set by those minimums.
The Commission also records where each sentence fell against the guideline range, with 181,421 cases having that information. 31% (56,702) were within the range. 41% (75,068) were below the range at the government's request, and 26% (46,700) were below it without a government request. 2% (2,951) were above the range.
Supervised Release, Fines, and Criminal History
After prison, 171,310 people (94%) were ordered to serve supervised release. The median term was 48 months. 128 people (less than 1%) received supervised release for life.
A fine was ordered for 10,257 people (6%), and restitution for 2,716 (1%). In criminal history, 45% were in the lowest category and 14% were in the highest.
How Have Sentences Changed by Year?
The median prison term was 55 months in fiscal year 2016 and 60 months from 2017 through 2022. It was 65 months in 2023, 70 months in 2024, and 72 months in 2025. Fiscal years 2016 to 2019 had 76,289 people with a median of 60 months. Fiscal years 2020 to 2025 had 105,179 people with a median of 63 months.
The share who pleaded guilty stayed between 97% and 99% in every year. The records do not show why the median moved in the later years, and a change in the median does not by itself show a change in the type of cases.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19,199 | 55 months | 98% |
| 2017 | 19,223 | 60 months | 98% |
| 2018 | 18,404 | 60 months | 97% |
| 2019 | 19,463 | 60 months | 98% |
| 2020 | 15,965 | 60 months | 98% |
| 2021 | 17,241 | 60 months | 99% |
| 2022 | 19,612 | 60 months | 98% |
| 2023 | 18,640 | 65 months | 98% |
| 2024 | 17,771 | 70 months | 98% |
| 2025 | 15,950 | 72 months | 98% |
How Does This Connect to the Military?
The crosswalk pairs this guideline with Article 112a of the UCMJ, and the comparison posts cover that pairing. This post reports only the federal numbers.
What the Records Cannot Show
The data lists sentences, not the facts of each case. It cannot show what drug was involved, what role a person played, or how much time was actually served. It also leaves out people who were acquitted or whose cases were dismissed.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2D1.1 (181,468), from the U.S. Sentencing Commission's individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
More Detail
Methamphetamine by fiscal year: 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2019 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2023 · 2024 · 2025.
Powder cocaine by fiscal year: 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2019 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2023 · 2024 · 2025.
Heroin by fiscal year: 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2019 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2023 · 2024 · 2025.
Fentanyl by fiscal year: 2021 · 2022 · 2023 · 2024 · 2025.
Marijuana by fiscal year: 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2019 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2023 · 2024 · 2025.
Crack cocaine by fiscal year: 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2019 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2023 · 2024 · 2025.
Other by fiscal year: 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2019 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2023 · 2024 · 2025.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2D1.2 Drug Offenses Occurring Near Protected Locations or Involving Underage or Pregnant Individuals: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- §2D2.1 Unlawful Possession: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- §2D2.2 Acquiring a Controlled Substance by Forgery, Fraud, Deception, or Subterfuge: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- §2D1.11 Unlawfully Distributing, Importing, Exporting or Possessing a Listed Chemical: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- Army Article 112a Cases by the Numbers, 2021–2025 (court-martial data)
- What Sentence Follows an Army Drug Conviction? (court-martial data)
- How Often Are Contested Army Article 112a Cases Acquitted? (court-martial data)
- Guilty Pleas in Army Drug Cases: How Often, and What Came Next (court-martial data)
- Are Air Force Drug Courts-Martial Disappearing? Article 112a, 2016–2025 (court-martial data)
- How Much Confinement for an Article 112a Conviction in the Air Force? (court-martial data)
- Pleading Guilty to Article 112a in the Air Force: What Sentences Followed? (court-martial data)
- Is Navy-Marine Corps Drug Prosecution Rising or Falling? Article 112a, 2017–2025 (court-martial data)
- How Much Confinement for an Article 112a Conviction in the Navy-Marine Corps? (court-martial data)
- Fighting a Navy-Marine Corps Drug Charge: How Contested Cases Ended (court-martial data)
- When Navy-Marine Corps Accused Plead Guilty to Drug (court-martial data)
- Article 112a (Wrongful Use, Possession of Controlled Substances): Court-Martial Data and Trends (court-martial data)
- Article 112a UCMJ Drug Offenses and Positive Urinalysis (law firm reference page)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.