§2D2.1 Unlawful Possession: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025
Guideline §2D2.1, Unlawful Possession; Attempt or Conspiracy, covered 1,393 people sentenced in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Probation only went to 777 (56%), and 584 (42%) received a prison term with a median of 1.6 months.
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In brief: Guideline §2D2.1, Unlawful Possession; Attempt or Conspiracy, covered 1,393 people sentenced in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Probation only went to 777 (56%), and 584 (42%) received a prison term with a median of 1.6 months.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 1,393 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Probation Was More Common Than Prison
Of the 1,393 people sentenced, 777 (56%) received probation only, with no prison or other confinement. A prison term went to 584 (42%).
Prison terms were short. The median was 1.6 months, a quarter received 6 months or more, and a quarter received 0 months or less. These are terms imposed, not time served.
What Does §2D2.1 Cover?
The U.S. Sentencing Guidelines Manual gives the title as "Unlawful Possession; Attempt or Conspiracy." The U.S. Sentencing Commission files these cases under Drug Possession.
Each person had §2D2.1 as the primary guideline, the one that set the offense level for the most serious count. The data includes only people who were convicted and sentenced.
The Military Pairing
The approved crosswalk pairs this guideline with Article 112a of the UCMJ. Separate comparison posts cover that pairing.
This post reports the federal numbers only, because the crosswalk entry is a pairing for the separate comparison posts and not a comparison made here.
Pleas and Trials
A total of 1,366 people (98%) pleaded guilty, and 27 were convicted after a trial. The median prison term was 1.5 months after a guilty plea and 12 months after a trial.
The trial figure is based on 19 people sent to prison. Among guilty pleas, 71% had a written plea agreement and 25% were straight pleas with no agreement.
Guideline Range and Mandatory Minimums
The sentence position is known for 1,384 people. Within the range was 88% (1,221). Below the range at the government's request was 3% (42), and below without a government request was 5% (64). Above the range was 4% (57).
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 105 people (8%).
Supervised Release, Fines, and Restitution
Supervised release after prison was ordered for 396 people (28%), with a median term of 12 months.
A fine was ordered for 513 people (37%), and restitution for 18 (1%). In criminal history, 59% were in category I, the lowest, and 7% were in category VI, the highest.
Changes Over the Years
The count was 807 people in fiscal years 2016 to 2019 and 586 in fiscal years 2020 to 2025. The median prison term was 2 months in the first period and 1 month in the second.
The yearly count fell from 230 in 2016 to 57 in 2025. The yearly median was 3 months in 2020 and 0 months in 2025. The count was 80 in 2023 and 67 in 2024, and the share who pleaded guilty was 96% or higher in every year. The table lists each year. The records cannot show why the numbers moved.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 230 | 2 months | 99% |
| 2017 | 213 | 2 months | 98% |
| 2018 | 191 | 1 months | more than 99% |
| 2019 | 173 | 2.3 months | 99% |
| 2020 | 140 | 3 months | 97% |
| 2021 | 113 | 0.3 months | 96% |
| 2022 | 129 | 2.7 months | 98% |
| 2023 | 80 | 1.1 months | 96% |
| 2024 | 67 | 0.2 months | 97% |
| 2025 | 57 | 0 months | 100% |
What the Records Cannot Show
The data does not say what substance or item was involved in a case. It cannot show cases that ended in acquittal or dismissal, or the time a person actually served.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2D2.1 (1,393), from the U.S. Sentencing Commission's individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2D1.1 Unlawful Manufacturing, Importing, Exporting, or Trafficking (Including Possession with Intent to Commit These Offenses): Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- §2D1.2 Drug Offenses Occurring Near Protected Locations or Involving Underage or Pregnant Individuals: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- §2D2.2 Acquiring a Controlled Substance by Forgery, Fraud, Deception, or Subterfuge: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- §2D1.11 Unlawfully Distributing, Importing, Exporting or Possessing a Listed Chemical: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- Army Article 112a Cases by the Numbers, 2021–2025 (court-martial data)
- What Sentence Follows an Army Drug Conviction? (court-martial data)
- How Often Are Contested Army Article 112a Cases Acquitted? (court-martial data)
- Guilty Pleas in Army Drug Cases: How Often, and What Came Next (court-martial data)
- Are Air Force Drug Courts-Martial Disappearing? Article 112a, 2016–2025 (court-martial data)
- How Much Confinement for an Article 112a Conviction in the Air Force? (court-martial data)
- Pleading Guilty to Article 112a in the Air Force: What Sentences Followed? (court-martial data)
- Is Navy-Marine Corps Drug Prosecution Rising or Falling? Article 112a, 2017–2025 (court-martial data)
- How Much Confinement for an Article 112a Conviction in the Navy-Marine Corps? (court-martial data)
- Fighting a Navy-Marine Corps Drug Charge: How Contested Cases Ended (court-martial data)
- When Navy-Marine Corps Accused Plead Guilty to Drug (court-martial data)
- Article 112a (Wrongful Use, Possession of Controlled Substances): Court-Martial Data and Trends (court-martial data)
- Article 112a UCMJ Drug Offenses and Positive Urinalysis (law firm reference page)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.