Federal Marijuana Trafficking Sentences, Fiscal Year 2021
Of 986 people sentenced for federal marijuana trafficking in fiscal year 2021, 977 (more than 99%) pleaded guilty and 9 were convicted after a trial. The median prison term was 23 months overall, 21 months after a guilty plea, and 120 months for the 9 people convicted at trial.
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In brief: Of 986 people sentenced for federal marijuana trafficking in fiscal year 2021, 977 (more than 99%) pleaded guilty and 9 were convicted after a trial. The median prison term was 23 months overall, 21 months after a guilty plea, and 120 months for the 9 people convicted at trial.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 986 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2021. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
How the Cases Were Resolved
Almost no marijuana trafficking case sentenced in fiscal year 2021 went through a trial. The U.S. Sentencing Commission recorded 9 trial convictions among 986 people.
Among the 977 guilty pleas, 80% had a written plea agreement with the government. The other 20% were straight pleas, entered with no agreement.
The 120-month median for trial convictions is based on 9 people, all sent to prison. A group that small can produce a median that would change with a handful of cases. The records do not show what set these cases apart from the guilty pleas, such as drug amounts or charges.
Prison Terms and Probation
A prison term was imposed on 876 people (89%). Probation only, with no prison or other confinement, was imposed on 77 (8%).
The median prison term was 23 months. The longest quarter of terms were 46 months or more. The shortest quarter were 11.4 months or less.
Across fiscal years 2016 to 2025, the marijuana median was 21 months, so the fiscal year 2021 median was higher. Among all drugs sentenced under guideline §2D1.1 in fiscal year 2021, the median was 60 months, for 17,241 people.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 3,398 | 18 months | 99% |
| 2017 | 2,730 | 18 months | 98% |
| 2018 | 2,101 | 21 months | 98% |
| 2019 | 1,665 | 24 months | 98% |
| 2020 | 1,116 | 21 months | 99% |
| 2021 | 986 | 23 months | more than 99% |
| 2022 | 796 | 24 months | 98% |
| 2023 | 557 | 25 months | 98% |
| 2024 | 464 | 30 months | more than 99% |
| 2025 | 378 | 30 months | 97% |
When Did a Mandatory Minimum Apply?
A mandatory minimum is a minimum prison term written into the statute of conviction. The court must impose it unless an exception in the law applies.
In fiscal year 2021, a mandatory minimum applied to 432 marijuana cases (44%). For all §2D1.1 drugs that year, the share was 71%. For marijuana across fiscal years 2016 to 2025, it was 36%.
Guideline Range Results
All 986 people had a recorded position against the guideline range, which is the span of months the federal guidelines recommend.
Within-range sentences were 44% (435). Below-range sentences without a government request were 27% (262). Below-range sentences that the government requested were 26% (259). Above-range sentences were 3% (30).
Supervision and Financial Penalties
After prison, 841 people (85%) were ordered to serve supervised release. The median term of supervised release was 36 months.
Fines were ordered for 59 people (6%). Restitution was ordered for 20 (2%).
Criminal History Categories
The federal guidelines sort each person into a criminal history category based on prior convictions. In this group, 67% were in category I, the lowest, and 4% were in category VI, the highest. Court-martial records contain no matching field.
Boundaries of the Data
Fiscal year 2021 began October 1, 2020, and ended September 30, 2021. The count covers only people who were convicted and sentenced, so acquittals and dismissals are missing from it.
Marijuana is the primary drug type recorded by the Commission, and other drugs may have been part of a case. Courts-martial do not record drug type in a countable way. Military drug distribution cases are compared in separate posts.
How We Counted
People sentenced in fiscal year 2021 whose primary guideline was §2D1.1 and whose primary drug type was marijuana (986), U.S. Sentencing Commission.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- Drug Distribution and Importation: Federal vs. Court-Martial Sentences, 2016–2025 (overview)
- Federal Marijuana Trafficking Sentences, Fiscal Year 2020 (previous or next year)
- Federal Marijuana Trafficking Sentences, Fiscal Year 2022 (previous or next year)
- Federal Methamphetamine Trafficking Sentences, Fiscal Year 2021 (same year, other drug)
- Federal Powder Cocaine Trafficking Sentences, Fiscal Year 2021 (same year, other drug)
- Federal Heroin Trafficking Sentences, Fiscal Year 2021 (same year, other drug)
- Federal Fentanyl Trafficking Sentences, Fiscal Year 2021 (same year, other drug)
- Federal Crack Cocaine Trafficking Sentences, Fiscal Year 2021 (same year, other drug)
- Federal Other Drug Trafficking Sentences, Fiscal Year 2021 (same year, other drug)
- Drug Distribution Sentences Since the 2023 Military Sentencing Reform: What the Data Shows So Far
- Drug Distribution Charges: How Often Federal Trials and Courts-Martial End in Acquittal
- §2D1.1 Unlawful Manufacturing, Importing, Exporting, or Trafficking (Including Possession with Intent to Commit These Offenses): Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (court-martial data)
- Army Article 112a Cases by the Numbers, 2021–2025 (court-martial data)
- Are Air Force Drug Courts-Martial Disappearing? Article 112a, 2016–2025 (court-martial data)
- Is Navy-Marine Corps Drug Prosecution Rising or Falling? Article 112a, 2017–2025 (court-martial data)
- Article 112a (Wrongful Use, Possession of Controlled Substances): Court-Martial Data and Trends (court-martial data)
- Article 112a UCMJ Drug Offenses and Positive Urinalysis (law firm reference page)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.