Federal Fentanyl Trafficking Sentences, Fiscal Year 2023
Of 3,338 people sentenced for federal fentanyl trafficking in fiscal year 2023, 3,259 (98%) pleaded guilty and 79 were convicted at trial. The median prison term was 58 months after a guilty plea and 190 months after a trial. Across the whole group, the median prison term was 60 months (5 years).
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In brief: Of 3,338 people sentenced for federal fentanyl trafficking in fiscal year 2023, 3,259 (98%) pleaded guilty and 79 were convicted at trial. The median prison term was 58 months after a guilty plea and 190 months after a trial. Across the whole group, the median prison term was 60 months (5 years).
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 3,338 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2023. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Guilty Plea or Trial in Fiscal Year 2023
A guilty plea ended 3,259 of the 3,338 cases. That is 98%, the same rate the table shows for every fiscal year after 2021.
Trials were uncommon. 79 people were convicted after one.
Most guilty pleas came with a written plea agreement: 94%. The remaining 6% were straight pleas, made without any agreement with the government.
Prison Terms After a Plea Compared With a Trial
For people who pleaded guilty, the median prison term was 58 months. For people convicted at trial, it was 190 months. The trial figure is based on 78 people who were convicted at trial and sent to prison.
This comparison has limits. Cases that go to trial are not a random sample. They can involve different drug amounts, different charges, or different criminal histories, and the records cannot separate those factors from the plea itself.
Source and Scope
The U.S. Sentencing Commission supplies these numbers. They cover people whose primary guideline was §2D1.1, which governs drug trafficking, and whose primary drug type was fentanyl.
Fiscal year 2023 ran from October 1, 2022, to September 30, 2023. Only people who were convicted and sentenced are included. Acquittals and dismissals do not appear in this data.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1,648 | 48 months | 99% |
| 2022 | 2,501 | 57 months | 98% |
| 2023 | 3,338 | 60 months | 98% |
| 2024 | 3,963 | 60 months | 98% |
| 2025 | 3,878 | 65 months | 98% |
The Full Range of Sentences
Prison was ordered for 3,262 people (98%). Probation only, with no prison or other confinement, was ordered for 61 (2%).
The overall median prison term was 60 months. A quarter of those sent to prison received 100 months or more. Another quarter received 27 months or less. 6 people were sentenced to life.
The overall fentanyl median matched the 60 months for fentanyl across fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It was lower than the 65 months for all §2D1.1 drug trafficking cases in fiscal year 2023.
Mandatory Minimums and the Guideline Range
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 1,916 people (57%). For every drug under §2D1.1 that year, the share was 65%. For fentanyl over all fiscal years, it was 55%.
The records give the sentence's position against the guideline range for 3,337 people. Below the range at the government's request was most common, at 44% (1,455). Within the range was 28% (935). Below the range without a government request was 25% (834). Above the range was 3% (113).
Supervised Release, Fines, Restitution, and Criminal History
Supervised release after prison was ordered for 3,235 people (97%). The median supervised release term was 36 months, and 1 person (less than 1%) received it for life.
Fines appeared in 152 sentences (5%) and restitution in 103 (3%).
In the criminal history scale, 40% were in category I and 13% were in category VI.
What This Data Does Not Answer
These figures cannot be compared with courts-martial. Military records do not count drug type and do not include a criminal history field. Military drug distribution cases appear in other posts.
The data also does not reveal what a plea agreement promised or why a particular sentence was chosen.
How We Counted
People sentenced in fiscal year 2023 whose primary guideline was §2D1.1 and whose primary drug type was fentanyl (3,338), U.S. Sentencing Commission.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- Drug Distribution and Importation: Federal vs. Court-Martial Sentences, 2016–2025 (overview)
- Federal Fentanyl Trafficking Sentences, Fiscal Year 2022 (previous or next year)
- Federal Fentanyl Trafficking Sentences, Fiscal Year 2024 (previous or next year)
- Federal Methamphetamine Trafficking Sentences, Fiscal Year 2023 (same year, other drug)
- Federal Powder Cocaine Trafficking Sentences, Fiscal Year 2023 (same year, other drug)
- Federal Heroin Trafficking Sentences, Fiscal Year 2023 (same year, other drug)
- Federal Marijuana Trafficking Sentences, Fiscal Year 2023 (same year, other drug)
- Federal Crack Cocaine Trafficking Sentences, Fiscal Year 2023 (same year, other drug)
- Federal Other Drug Trafficking Sentences, Fiscal Year 2023 (same year, other drug)
- Drug Distribution Sentences Since the 2023 Military Sentencing Reform: What the Data Shows So Far
- Drug Distribution Charges: How Often Federal Trials and Courts-Martial End in Acquittal
- §2D1.1 Unlawful Manufacturing, Importing, Exporting, or Trafficking (Including Possession with Intent to Commit These Offenses): Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (court-martial data)
- Army Article 112a Cases by the Numbers, 2021–2025 (court-martial data)
- Are Air Force Drug Courts-Martial Disappearing? Article 112a, 2016–2025 (court-martial data)
- Is Navy-Marine Corps Drug Prosecution Rising or Falling? Article 112a, 2017–2025 (court-martial data)
- Article 112a (Wrongful Use, Possession of Controlled Substances): Court-Martial Data and Trends (court-martial data)
- Article 112a UCMJ Drug Offenses and Positive Urinalysis (law firm reference page)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.