Military Trial Results · Analysis
Understanding Trends in Military Practice
Analysis of real court-martial records: what gets charged, how cases end, what sentences look like, how experienced the lawyers of record were, and what changed when the law did.
Every number is computed from the Military Trial Results data, built from the services' public court-martial records. Each post says how many cases it rests on, the years covered, and how we counted. Read how this data was built before citing it.
Browse the Analysis
- By InstallationBases and regions, by time period
- By OffenseUCMJ articles, rising and falling charges
- By ServiceArmy, Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps
- By YearWhat each year and month looked like
- SentencesConfinement, discharges, judge alone vs. members
- Counsel ExperiencePrior cases of the lawyers of record
- Law ChangesBefore and after the major reforms
- Episode CompanionsThe numbers behind podcast episodes
Federal Prosecution Analysis
How do federal prosecutions compare with courts-martial? These posts use the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of everyone sentenced in federal court and the Federal Judicial Center's records of every federal defendant whose case ended, including dismissals and acquittals, for fiscal years 2016 to 2025. They cover sentences, guilty pleas, trials and acquittals, mandatory minimums, and supervised release, offense by offense. Where a federal crime has a close counterpart in the UCMJ, the post sets the two side by side. Where it doesn't, the post reports the federal numbers on their own. For how military law has moved toward the federal system, start with Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System.
Latest Analysis
§2X1.1 Attempt, Solicitation, or Conspiracy (Not Covered by a Specific Offense Guideline): Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2019
In fiscal year 2019, 9 of the 16 people sentenced under §2X1.1 (56%) received a sentence within the guideline range. 14 (88%) received a prison term, and the median prison term was 36.5 months (3 years). All 16 pleaded guilty.
§2X1.1 Attempt, Solicitation, or Conspiracy (Not Covered by a Specific Offense Guideline): Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2018
In fiscal year 2018, 4 of the 23 people sentenced under §2X1.1 were convicted after a trial, and their median prison term was 132 months. The median after a guilty plea was 24 months. Across all 23 people, 19 (83%) received a prison term, with a median of 27 months (2.2 years).
§2X1.1 Attempt, Solicitation, or Conspiracy (Not Covered by a Specific Offense Guideline): Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2017
In fiscal year 2017, 14 of the 15 people sentenced under §2X1.1 (93%) received a prison term, with a median of 28 months (2.3 years). A mandatory minimum applied to 3 of the 15 (20%). The one person convicted at trial received a prison term of 235 months.
§2X1.1 Attempt, Solicitation, or Conspiracy (Not Covered by a Specific Offense Guideline): Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2016
In fiscal year 2016, 11 of the 13 people sentenced under §2X1.1 (85%) received a prison term, and the median prison term was 60 months (5 years). A quarter received 102 months or more. The group is small, so these figures rest on few people.
§2B2.3 Trespass: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2025
In fiscal year 2025, 12 people were sentenced in federal court under §2B2.3, titled "Trespass." 4 of the 12 (33%) received a prison term, with a median of 3 months, and 4 (33%) received probation only. 10 pleaded guilty and 2 were convicted after a trial.
§2B2.3 Trespass: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2024
Every one of the 41 sentences imposed in fiscal year 2024 under §2B2.3 ("Trespass") was within the guideline range. 20 of the 41 people (49%) received prison, with a median prison term of 1.6 months, and 39 (95%) pleaded guilty.
§2B2.3 Trespass: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2023
Of the 33 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2023 under §2B2.3 ("Trespass"), 22 (67%) received a prison term. The median prison term was 2 months. 29 of the 33 (88%) pleaded guilty, and 4 were convicted after a trial.
§2B2.3 Trespass: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2022
In fiscal year 2022, 39 people were sentenced in federal court in cases where the primary guideline was §2B2.3, titled "Trespass." 19 of the 39 (49%) received a prison term, and the median prison term among them was 2.5 months. 38 of the 39 (97%) pleaded guilty.
§2M5.1 Evasion of Export Controls: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2025
In fiscal year 2025, 18 people were sentenced under §2M5.1, a count that falls within the 11 to 22 range of the yearly series. Of them, 13 (72%) received a prison term with a median of 24 months (2 years), and 5 (28%) received probation only. All 18 pleaded guilty.
§2M5.1 Evasion of Export Controls: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2024
In fiscal year 2024, a fine was ordered for 8 of the 14 people sentenced under §2M5.1 (57%). Of the 14, 13 (93%) went to prison, with a median prison term of 18 months, and 1 person was convicted after a trial.
§2M5.1 Evasion of Export Controls: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2023
In fiscal year 2023, 13 of the 14 people sentenced under §2M5.1 (93%) went to prison, with a median prison term of 21 months. All 14 pleaded guilty. A fine was ordered for 5 people (36%). One year of 14 people is too few to show a trend.
§2M5.1 Evasion of Export Controls: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2022
In fiscal year 2022, 4 of the 17 people sentenced under §2M5.1 (24%) received probation only, and 13 (76%) received a prison term. The median prison term was 15 months, but a quarter of those sent to prison received 41 months or more.
Go deeper: Military Trial Results (every case, members) · Know Your Judge · Learn Your Lawyer (free)
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