§2M5.1 Evasion of Export Controls: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2023
In fiscal year 2023, 13 of the 14 people sentenced under §2M5.1 (93%) went to prison, with a median prison term of 21 months. All 14 pleaded guilty. A fine was ordered for 5 people (36%). One year of 14 people is too few to show a trend.
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Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › §2M5.1 Evasion of Export Controls › §2M5.1: FY2023
In brief: In fiscal year 2023, 13 of the 14 people sentenced under §2M5.1 (93%) went to prison, with a median prison term of 21 months. All 14 pleaded guilty. A fine was ordered for 5 people (36%). One year of 14 people is too few to show a trend.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 14 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2023. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
What the Fiscal Year 2023 Numbers Show
The U.S. Sentencing Commission counted 14 people in fiscal year 2023 whose primary guideline was §2M5.1. The Guidelines Manual titles it "Evasion of Export Controls; Financial Transactions with Countries Supporting International Terrorism." The fiscal year ran from October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023.
Of the 14, 13 (93%) received a prison term, and 1 (7%) received probation only. The median prison term was 21 months. A quarter received 28 months or more, and a quarter received 13 months or less.
These numbers describe one year only, and 14 people is too few to show a pattern.
Fines and Restitution
A fine was ordered for 5 people (36%), and restitution was ordered for 1 (7%). Among the 14, 12 (86%) were ordered to serve supervised release after prison, with a median term of 36 months.
Fines and restitution are separate from the prison term. The records do not say why they were ordered in these cases or how large they were.
Pleas and Mandatory Minimums
All 14 people (100%) pleaded guilty, and 0 were convicted after a trial. Each guilty plea (100%) had a written plea agreement.
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 0 of the 14 people with that information recorded (0%).
The data covers only people who were convicted and sentenced. Acquittals and dismissals are not in it.
Sentences and the Guideline Range
Within the range were 3 sentences (21%). Below the range at the government's request were 8 (57%), and below the range without a government request were 3 (21%). None (0%) was above it.
Across all guidelines in fiscal year 2023, 42% of sentences were within the range. Over fiscal years 2016 to 2025, the §2M5.1 share was 16%. The 2023 share is higher than that 16%, and lower than the 42% for all guidelines.
Criminal History
Criminal history category I held 93% of the group, and the highest category (VI) held 0%. Court-martial records have no criminal history field, so this measure has no military counterpart.
Years on Either Side
In fiscal year 2022, 17 people were sentenced under §2M5.1, with a median prison term of 15 months. In fiscal year 2024, 14 people were sentenced, with a median of 18 months.
For all fiscal years 2016 to 2025, 162 people were sentenced under this guideline. Of them, 84% were sent to prison, and the median prison term was 18.3 months. The 2023 median is higher than that.
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2023, under every guideline, totaled 64,124 people, with a median prison term of 30 months. The crosswalk used for this site has no close court-martial counterpart for this guideline, so the post reports the federal numbers on their own.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 11 | 14 months | 100% |
| 2017 | 19 | 16.5 months | 95% |
| 2018 | 17 | 24 months | 100% |
| 2019 | 14 | 22.4 months | 100% |
| 2020 | 16 | 18.7 months | 100% |
| 2021 | 22 | 12.9 months | 95% |
| 2022 | 17 | 15 months | 100% |
| 2023 | 14 | 21 months | 100% |
| 2024 | 14 | 18 months | 93% |
| 2025 | 18 | 24 months | 100% |
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2023 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2M5.1 (14), U.S. Sentencing Commission individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2M5.1 Evasion of Export Controls: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- §2M5.1 Evasion of Export Controls: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2022 (previous or next fiscal year)
- §2M5.1 Evasion of Export Controls: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2024 (previous or next fiscal year)
- How Often Federal Judges Sentence Outside the Guideline Range
- Mandatory Minimums: How Many Federal Sentences Are Set by Congress
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.