§2M5.1 Evasion of Export Controls: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2022
In fiscal year 2022, 4 of the 17 people sentenced under §2M5.1 (24%) received probation only, and 13 (76%) received a prison term. The median prison term was 15 months, but a quarter of those sent to prison received 41 months or more.
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In brief: In fiscal year 2022, 4 of the 17 people sentenced under §2M5.1 (24%) received probation only, and 13 (76%) received a prison term. The median prison term was 15 months, but a quarter of those sent to prison received 41 months or more.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 17 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2022. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Probation for 4 of 17 People
The U.S. Sentencing Commission counted 17 people in fiscal year 2022 whose primary guideline was §2M5.1. The Guidelines Manual titles the guideline "Evasion of Export Controls; Financial Transactions with Countries Supporting International Terrorism."
Of the 17, 4 (24%) received probation only, with no prison or other confinement. The other 13 (76%) received a prison term. Over fiscal years 2016 to 2025, 84% of people sentenced under this guideline were sent to prison, so the 2022 share is lower.
The group is small. Each person is a large share of the total, and the figures describe one year only.
A Wide Range of Prison Terms
Among those sent to prison, the median prison term was 15 months. A quarter received 41 months or more, and a quarter received 6 months or less.
The median is the middle term. The gap between the 6-month and 41-month marks shows that terms in this group were not close to the median. The terms are those imposed, not time served.
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 0 of the 17 people with that information recorded (0%). The fiscal year ran from October 1, 2021 to September 30, 2022.
Plea Agreements
Every one of the 17 (100%) pleaded guilty. None went to trial. Of the guilty pleas, 94% included a written plea agreement and 6% did not.
Acquittals and dismissals are not part of this data. It describes only people who were convicted and sentenced.
Against the Guideline Range
Within the guideline range were 5 sentences (29%). Below the range at the government's request were 8 (47%), and below the range without a government request were 4 (24%). None (0%) was above the range.
This 29% is the highest within-range share for §2M5.1 among its neighbors: the share was 23% in fiscal year 2021 and 21% in fiscal year 2023. For all guidelines in fiscal year 2022, 42% of sentences were within the range.
Supervised Release, Fines, and Criminal History
After prison, 13 people (76%) were ordered to serve supervised release, with a median term of 24 months. A fine was ordered for 4 (24%). No restitution was ordered (0%).
In the lowest criminal history category (category I) were 88% of the people, and 0% were in the highest (VI). The court-martial side has no criminal history field to match.
The 2016 to 2025 Series and All Federal Cases
In fiscal year 2021, 22 people were sentenced under §2M5.1, with a median prison term of 12.9 months. In fiscal year 2023, 14 people were sentenced, with a median of 21 months.
For all fiscal years 2016 to 2025, 162 people were sentenced under the guideline, with a median prison term of 18.3 months. Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2022, under every guideline, totaled 64,142 people, with a median prison term of 30 months.
No court-martial article is a close match for this guideline in the approved crosswalk, so these are federal numbers only.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 11 | 14 months | 100% |
| 2017 | 19 | 16.5 months | 95% |
| 2018 | 17 | 24 months | 100% |
| 2019 | 14 | 22.4 months | 100% |
| 2020 | 16 | 18.7 months | 100% |
| 2021 | 22 | 12.9 months | 95% |
| 2022 | 17 | 15 months | 100% |
| 2023 | 14 | 21 months | 100% |
| 2024 | 14 | 18 months | 93% |
| 2025 | 18 | 24 months | 100% |
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2022 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2M5.1 (17), U.S. Sentencing Commission individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2M5.1 Evasion of Export Controls: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- §2M5.1 Evasion of Export Controls: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2021 (previous or next fiscal year)
- §2M5.1 Evasion of Export Controls: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2023 (previous or next fiscal year)
- How Often Federal Judges Sentence Outside the Guideline Range
- Mandatory Minimums: How Many Federal Sentences Are Set by Congress
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.