§2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025
In fiscal years 2016 to 2025, 1,391 people were sentenced under §2M5.2, the guideline for exporting arms, munitions, or military equipment or services without a required validated export license. The median prison term was 27 months (2.2 years), and 1,256 people (90%) received prison.
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In brief: In fiscal years 2016 to 2025, 1,391 people were sentenced under §2M5.2, the guideline for exporting arms, munitions, or military equipment or services without a required validated export license. The median prison term was 27 months (2.2 years), and 1,256 people (90%) received prison.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 1,391 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Median Prison Terms Were 27 Months
A prison term went to 1,256 of the 1,391 people (90%). Probation only, with no prison or other confinement, went to 108 (8%).
The median prison term was 27 months, or 2.2 years. A quarter received 41 months or more, and a quarter received 12 months or less. These are terms imposed, not time served.
What Does Guideline §2M5.2 Cover?
The Sentencing Guidelines Manual titles §2M5.2 "Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License." The U.S. Sentencing Commission classifies the cases as National Defense offenses.
Each person had §2M5.2 as the primary guideline, the one that set the offense level for the most serious count. Acquittals and dismissals are not in the data.
Pleas and Trials
A total of 1,365 people (98%) pleaded guilty, and 26 were convicted after a trial. The median prison term was 27 months after a guilty plea and 57 months after a trial.
The trial figure is based on 25 people sent to prison. Among guilty pleas, 76% had a written plea agreement and 24% were straight pleas.
Sentences Below the Range Outnumbered Those Within It
The sentence position is known for all 1,391 people. Within the guideline range was 32% (445).
Below the range at the government's request was 29% (398), and below the range without a government request was 39% (538). Above the range was less than 1% (10).
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 2 people, which is less than 1%.
Supervised Release, Fines, and Criminal History
Supervised release after prison was ordered for 1,088 people (78%), with a median term of 36 months.
A fine was ordered for 121 people (9%). Restitution was ordered for 12, which is less than 1%.
In criminal history, 88% were in category I, the lowest, and less than 1% were in category VI, the highest.
Did Medians Change?
The count was 480 people in fiscal years 2016 to 2019 and 911 in fiscal years 2020 to 2025. The median prison term was 29.5 months in the first period and 27 months in the second.
Yearly medians ran from 32 months in 2016 to 24 months in 2019, 2024, and 2025. The medians in 2018 and 2021 were 30 months, and in 2020 and 2023 they were 28 months. The yearly count was lowest in 2016 at 100 and highest in 2024 at 178.
The share who pleaded guilty was 95% or higher in every year. The table lists each year.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 100 | 32 months | 99% |
| 2017 | 108 | 27 months | 96% |
| 2018 | 131 | 30 months | 95% |
| 2019 | 141 | 24 months | 99% |
| 2020 | 119 | 28 months | 98% |
| 2021 | 159 | 30 months | more than 99% |
| 2022 | 118 | 25 months | 96% |
| 2023 | 168 | 28 months | 99% |
| 2024 | 178 | 24 months | more than 99% |
| 2025 | 169 | 24 months | 99% |
What the Records Cannot Show
The approved crosswalk lists no close court-martial counterpart for this guideline, so the numbers stand alone. The data cannot show what items were exported, who received them, or the time actually served. It also cannot show how many people were charged but not convicted.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2M5.2 (1,391), from the U.S. Sentencing Commission's individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2M5.3 Providing Material Support or Resources to Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations or Specially Designated Global Terrorists, or For a Terrorist Purpose: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- §2M5.1 Evasion of Export Controls: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- §2M6.1 Unlawful Activity Involving Nuclear Material, Weapons, or Facilities, Biological Agents, Toxins, or Delivery Systems, Chemical Weapons, or Other Weapons of Mass Destruction: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- §2M3.3 Transmitting National Defense Information: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.