§2M5.1 Evasion of Export Controls: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025
Median prison for people sentenced under §2M5.1 was 18.3 months from fiscal year 2016 to fiscal year 2025. 136 of 162 people (84%) were sent to prison, and 159 (98%) pleaded guilty. No mandatory minimum applied to anyone.
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In brief: Median prison for people sentenced under §2M5.1 was 18.3 months from fiscal year 2016 to fiscal year 2025. 136 of 162 people (84%) were sent to prison, and 159 (98%) pleaded guilty. No mandatory minimum applied to anyone.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 162 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Pleas and Trials
159 of 162 people (98%) pleaded guilty, and 3 were convicted after a trial. 96% of the guilty pleas had a written plea agreement, and 4% were straight pleas.
The median prison term was 18 months after a guilty plea and 36 months after a trial. The trial figure rests on 3 people.
Scope of §2M5.1
The Manual title is "Evasion of Export Controls; Financial Transactions with Countries Supporting International Terrorism." By its title, the guideline covers evading export controls and certain financial transactions with countries named as supporting international terrorism.
The Commission's offense type for all 162 cases is National Defense. Cases are counted when this was the primary guideline. The approved crosswalk lists no close court-martial counterpart.
Prison Terms
Of 162 people, 136 (84%) received a prison term and 19 (12%) received probation only.
The median term for those in prison was 18.3 months. A quarter received 30 months or more, and a quarter received 8 months or less. The terms are as imposed, not time served. They describe the 136 people sentenced to prison and not the 19 who received probation only.
Guideline Range and Mandatory Minimums
Of 161 people with range information, 16% (25) were sentenced within the range. The largest group, 50% (80), was below the range at the government's request, and 34% (54) were below it without one. 1% (2) were above the range.
No mandatory minimum prison term applied to anyone (0%).
Supervised Release, Fines, and Restitution
105 people (65%) were ordered to serve supervised release after prison, with a median term of 36 months.
A fine was ordered for 55 people (34%), and restitution for 3 (2%). Criminal history was usually minimal: 96% were in the lowest category and 0% in the highest.
Fiscal Years Compared
In fiscal years 2016 to 2019, 61 people were sentenced and the median prison term was 20 months. In fiscal years 2020 to 2025, 101 people were sentenced and the median was 18 months.
Yearly medians ran from 12.9 months in fiscal year 2021 to 24 months in fiscal years 2018 and 2025. The records cannot show why. The most people were sentenced in fiscal year 2021, at 22, and the fewest in fiscal year 2016, at 11. The share who pleaded guilty was 100% in fiscal years 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023, and 2025, and the lowest yearly share was 93% in fiscal year 2024. Yearly counts of 11 to 22 people make each median sensitive to a few cases.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 11 | 14 months | 100% |
| 2017 | 19 | 16.5 months | 95% |
| 2018 | 17 | 24 months | 100% |
| 2019 | 14 | 22.4 months | 100% |
| 2020 | 16 | 18.7 months | 100% |
| 2021 | 22 | 12.9 months | 95% |
| 2022 | 17 | 15 months | 100% |
| 2023 | 14 | 21 months | 100% |
| 2024 | 14 | 18 months | 93% |
| 2025 | 18 | 24 months | 100% |
What the Records Cannot Show
The data includes only people convicted and sentenced, so acquittals and dismissals are missing. It also does not show the goods, technology, or country involved.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2M5.1 (162), from the U.S. Sentencing Commission's individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2M5.2 Exportation of Arms, Munitions, or Military Equipment or Services Without Required Validated Export License: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- §2M5.3 Providing Material Support or Resources to Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations or Specially Designated Global Terrorists, or For a Terrorist Purpose: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- §2M6.1 Unlawful Activity Involving Nuclear Material, Weapons, or Facilities, Biological Agents, Toxins, or Delivery Systems, Chemical Weapons, or Other Weapons of Mass Destruction: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- §2M3.3 Transmitting National Defense Information: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.