Aggravated Assault: Sentences After a Guilty Plea vs. After Trial, Federal Court and Courts-Martial
In courts-martial for aggravated assault under Article 128, the median confinement was 9.4 months after a guilty plea and 14.8 months in contested cases that ended in conviction. In federal court, the median prison term was 37 months after a guilty plea and 78 months after a trial. Both systems show
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In brief: In courts-martial for aggravated assault under Article 128, the median confinement was 9.4 months after a guilty plea and 14.8 months in contested cases that ended in conviction. In federal court, the median prison term was 37 months after a guilty plea and 78 months after a trial. Both systems show longer sentences after a contested case, but the sources define a trial differently and the sentences are measured differently.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 4,493 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, compared with court-martial results from this site's Military Trial Results data (updated November 2, 2026). Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
What the Court-Martial Records Show
The court-martial records cover convictions for aggravated assault under Article 128 with trial dates from 2016 to 2025. They list 185 convictions with a plea recorded. Of these, 115 were guilty pleas (62%) and 70 were convictions in contested cases.
A contested case is one where the accused pleaded not guilty to at least one charge. That includes mixed pleas, where the accused pleaded guilty to some charges and not guilty to others.
The median confinement after a guilty plea was 9.4 months, based on 106 cases with confinement. In contested cases that ended in conviction, the median was 14.8 months, based on 59 cases with confinement.
What the Federal Records Show
The U.S. Sentencing Commission data covers 4,493 people sentenced under guideline §2A2.2 (aggravated assault) in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. The federal plea rate for this offense was 93%.
The median prison term after a guilty plea was 37 months. After a trial, it was 78 months, based on 290 people who were convicted at trial and sent to prison.
In the federal data, trial includes people who pleaded guilty to some counts and went to trial on others. That is close to the court-martial meaning of a contested case, but the federal data does not separate those groups.
The Same Comparison, Service by Service
The table splits the court-martial medians by service. In the Army, the median was 7.9 months after a guilty plea (38 cases) and 12 months in contested cases (15 cases). In the Air Force, it was 11.6 months (28 cases) and 17.8 months (26 cases).
The Navy median was 7 months after a guilty plea (13 cases) and 27 months in contested cases (10 cases). The Marine Corps was the exception: 8.4 months after a guilty plea (27 cases) and 6.5 months in contested cases, which rests on only 8 cases.
The service groups are small. A median based on 8 to 15 cases can move a great deal when a few cases are added or removed.
| Service | Median confinement after a guilty plea (cases) | Median confinement, contested cases (cases) |
|---|---|---|
| Army | 7.9 months (38) | 12 months (15) |
| Air Force | 11.6 months (28) | 17.8 months (26) |
| Navy | 7 months (13) | 27 months (10) |
| Marine Corps | 8.4 months (27) | 6.5 months (8) |
Where Federal Sentences Fell Against the Guideline Range
Federal judges sentence against an advisory guideline range. For aggravated assault, 44% of sentences were within the range. Another 22% were below the range at the government's request, and 23% were below it without a government request. Sentences above the range made up 11%.
The sheet does not break these positions out by plea or trial, so the records cannot show whether sentences below the range were more common after a plea.
How to Read the Comparison
Court-martial sentences are the sentences adjudged at trial, before any clemency or appeal. Federal prison terms are the terms imposed, not the time served.
The federal figures are much higher in both groups. The records cannot show how much of that comes from the offenses charged, the sentencing rules, or how cases reach each system. The groups of cases are not matched.
The records also cannot show what an individual sentence would have been under the other system, or whether a plea agreement shaped any sentence in the court-martial data.
How We Counted
Courts-martial: convictions for aggravated assault (Article 128) with trial dates in 2016 to 2025, split by plea (115 guilty pleas, 70 contested). Medians use cases with confinement adjudged. Federal: 4,493 people sentenced under guideline §2A2.2 (aggravated assault), fiscal years 2016 to 2025 (U.S. Sentencing Commission).
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
Who is in each set of numbers. The federal sentencing numbers come from the U.S. Sentencing Commission. They count only people who were convicted and sentenced in federal district court. People whose cases were dismissed or who were acquitted are not in them. The military numbers come from court-martial results, which include acquittals. To compare acquittal or dismissal rates, the federal side uses a different source: the Federal Judicial Center's case data, which counts every defendant whose case ended.
Different cases reach each system. Federal prosecutors bring a narrow set of cases. In fiscal year 2024, immigration and drug trafficking cases were 59% of everyone sentenced in federal court (36,664 of 61,678). Many crimes that the military prosecutes, such as most assaults, most sexual assaults between adults, and drug use, are usually state crimes for civilians and reach federal court only in special situations, such as on federal land or in Indian Country. A federal case and a court-martial for the same crime can involve different kinds of facts.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
Offense categories do not line up exactly. Each comparison uses a federal offense group chosen to match the military article as closely as possible (see the crosswalk). Some matches are close; others are partial. The post says which federal guideline or statute was used and why it is not an exact match.
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Military confinement credit and parole. For military sentences adjudged after 2004, good conduct time is 5 days for each month of confinement, about 16%. Military prisoners can also earn up to 8 more days a month for work and programs and up to 2 days a month for special acts, with a limit of 15 days a month in total. Military prisoners can be considered for parole by their service's clemency and parole board. The military numbers in this post are the confinement adjudged at trial, not the time served.
Military sentences include punishments federal sentences do not. A court-martial sentence can include a punitive discharge (bad-conduct discharge, dishonorable discharge, or dismissal for officers), reduction in rank, and forfeiture of pay. These have no federal counterpart. A comparison of months of confinement leaves them out. A short confinement term combined with a dishonorable discharge is a heavier sentence than the months alone show.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Plea agreements work differently. In federal court, most plea agreements do not bind the judge on the sentence. Since 2019, a military plea agreement can set a minimum and maximum sentence that the military judge must follow if the judge accepts the agreement. The federal numbers count anyone who pleaded guilty, with or without a written agreement.
How "plea" and "trial" are counted. In the federal sentencing numbers, "trial" means the person was convicted after a trial, including people who pleaded guilty to some counts and went to trial on others. People acquitted at trial are not in these numbers at all (see "Who is in each set of numbers"). In the federal case data, the trial rate counts both convictions and acquittals at trial among all defendants whose cases ended, including dismissed cases. Military numbers count contested cases that reached a verdict. These denominators are not the same, and each post states the one it uses.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- Aggravated Assault: Federal Sentences vs. Article 128 Courts-Martial, 2016–2025 (overview)
- Aggravated Assault Sentences Since the 2023 Military Sentencing Reform: What the Data Shows So Far
- Aggravated Assault Charges: Federal Trial Acquittals vs. Contested Army Courts-Martial
- Aggravated Assault Charges: How Often Federal Trials and Courts-Martial End in Acquittal
- Aggravated Assault Charges: Federal Trial Acquittals vs. Contested Marine Corps Courts-Martial
- Aggravated Assault Charges: Federal Trial Acquittals vs. Contested Navy Courts-Martial
- Guilty Pleas in Aggravated Assault Cases: Federal Court vs. Courts-Martial
- Army Article 128 Cases by the Numbers, 2021–2025 (court-martial data)
- Article 128 Sentences in the Army: Confinement and Discharges, 2021–2025 (court-martial data)
- How Often Are Contested Army Article 128 Cases Acquitted? (court-martial data)
- When Army Accused Plead Guilty to Assault (court-martial data)
- Fewer or More? Assault Charges at Air Force Courts-Martial, 2016–2025 (court-martial data)
- What Sentence Follows an Air Force Assault Conviction? (court-martial data)
- Pleading Guilty to Article 128 in the Air Force: What Sentences Followed? (court-martial data)
- Navy-Marine Corps Article 128 Cases by the Numbers, 2017–2025 (court-martial data)
- What Sentence Follows a Navy-Marine Corps Assault Conviction? (court-martial data)
- Not Guilty Pleas in Navy-Marine Corps Article 128 Cases: What Happened at Trial (court-martial data)
- Guilty Pleas in Navy-Marine Corps Assault Cases: How Often, and What Came Next (court-martial data)
- Article 128 (Assault): Court-Martial Data and Trends (court-martial data)
- Article 128 UCMJ: Assault, Aggravated Assault, and Strangulation (law firm reference page)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.