Aggravated Assault Sentences Since the 2023 Military Sentencing Reform: What the Data Shows So Far
It may be too early to tell what the 2023 military sentencing reform changed for aggravated assault. Courts-martial tried in 2022 and 2023 had a median confinement of 11.7 months, and those tried in 2024 and 2025 had a median of 6 months. Federal medians for the same offense were 42 months in fiscal
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In brief: It may be too early to tell what the 2023 military sentencing reform changed for aggravated assault. Courts-martial tried in 2022 and 2023 had a median confinement of 11.7 months, and those tried in 2024 and 2025 had a median of 6 months. Federal medians for the same offense were 42 months in fiscal years 2022 to 2023 and 40 months in fiscal years 2024 to 2025.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 4,493 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2022 to 2025, compared with court-martial results from this site's Military Trial Results data (updated November 2, 2026). Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
What the Reform Changed and Why Records Cannot Isolate It
For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone under sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and 2025 include both old-rule and new-rule cases. The records cannot tell old-rule and new-rule cases apart.
For that reason, the 2024 and 2025 figures below are a mix. They cannot show what the new rules did on their own, and it may be too early to tell.
Court-Martial Sentences Before and After
For trials in 2022 and 2023, there were 58 convictions for aggravated assault under Article 128. Of those, 52 had a sentence recorded that included confinement (90%). The median adjudged confinement was 11.7 months, and a quarter of the sentences were 31.2 months or more.
For trials in 2024 and 2025, there were 49 convictions. Of those, 45 included confinement (92%). The median was 6 months, and a quarter of the sentences were 18 months or more.
The median confinement is lower in the later period. This change took place in the same years as the reform. The records cannot show whether one caused the other.
| Courts-martial 2022–2023 | Courts-martial 2024–2025 | Federal FY2022–2023 | Federal FY2024–2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Convictions or people sentenced | 58 | 49 | 1,049 | 1,138 |
| With confinement or prison | 90% | 92% | 97% | 96% |
| Median confinement or prison | 11.7 months | 6 months | 42 months | 40 months |
| Guilty pleas | 62% | 64% | 93% | 91% |
Discharges and Level of Court
In the 2022 to 2023 group, 43 of 57 enlisted members received a punitive discharge (75%): 17 dishonorable discharges and 26 bad-conduct discharges. A general court-martial heard 43 of the 58 cases (74%).
In the 2024 to 2025 group, 29 of 49 enlisted members received a punitive discharge (59%): 6 dishonorable discharges and 23 bad-conduct discharges. A general court-martial heard 27 of the 49 cases (55%).
Which Services Make Up Each Period
The 2022 to 2023 convictions were Army 26, Air Force 16, Navy 7, and Marine Corps 9. The 2024 to 2025 convictions were Army 22, Air Force 8, Navy 6, and Marine Corps 13.
The service mix is not the same in the periods. Service medians differ, and the comparison does not adjust for the mix of services.
Guilty Pleas in the Later Period
A plea is recorded for 47 of the 49 convictions in 2024 and 2025. Of those, 30 (64%) were guilty pleas. The table gives a guilty plea share of 62% for the earlier period.
Federal Sentences in the Same Years
Federal court was not subject to the military reform, so its figures serve as a reference. The U.S. Sentencing Commission counted 1,049 people sentenced under guideline §2A2.2 in fiscal years 2022 and 2023. A prison term went to 1,020 of them (97%), and 18 (2%) received probation only.
For fiscal years 2024 and 2025, the count was 1,138 people. A prison term went to 1,095 (96%), and 35 (3%) received probation only.
The median federal prison term was 42 months in the first period and 40 months in the second. The top quarter of terms was 68.5 months or more, then 63 months or more. The bottom quarter was 27 months or less, then 24 months or less.
Federal Guilty Pleas
In fiscal years 2022 and 2023, 976 of 1,049 people (93%) pleaded guilty, and 73 were convicted after a trial. In fiscal years 2024 and 2025, 1,035 of 1,138 (91%) pleaded guilty, and 103 were convicted after a trial.
Federal court sentenced a higher share by guilty plea than the court-martial groups did in both periods.
What the Data Shows So Far
The 2024 and 2025 court-martial groups have 49 convictions. Small groups change a great deal from one year to the next.
Court-martial sentences are as adjudged at trial, before any clemency or appeal. Federal terms are those imposed. As more cases are tried under the new rules, later data may show more. This post reports what the records show so far and makes no claim about the reform's effect.
How We Counted
Courts-martial ending in a conviction for aggravated assault (Article 128): trials in 2022 and 2023 (58) and in 2024 and 2025 (49). Federal: people sentenced under guideline §2A2.2 (aggravated assault) in fiscal years 2022 and 2023 (1,049) and 2024 and 2025 (1,138), U.S. Sentencing Commission.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
Who is in each set of numbers. The federal sentencing numbers come from the U.S. Sentencing Commission. They count only people who were convicted and sentenced in federal district court. People whose cases were dismissed or who were acquitted are not in them. The military numbers come from court-martial results, which include acquittals. To compare acquittal or dismissal rates, the federal side uses a different source: the Federal Judicial Center's case data, which counts every defendant whose case ended.
Different cases reach each system. Federal prosecutors bring a narrow set of cases. In fiscal year 2024, immigration and drug trafficking cases were 59% of everyone sentenced in federal court (36,664 of 61,678). Many crimes that the military prosecutes, such as most assaults, most sexual assaults between adults, and drug use, are usually state crimes for civilians and reach federal court only in special situations, such as on federal land or in Indian Country. A federal case and a court-martial for the same crime can involve different kinds of facts.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
Offense categories do not line up exactly. Each comparison uses a federal offense group chosen to match the military article as closely as possible (see the crosswalk). Some matches are close; others are partial. The post says which federal guideline or statute was used and why it is not an exact match.
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Military confinement credit and parole. For military sentences adjudged after 2004, good conduct time is 5 days for each month of confinement, about 16%. Military prisoners can also earn up to 8 more days a month for work and programs and up to 2 days a month for special acts, with a limit of 15 days a month in total. Military prisoners can be considered for parole by their service's clemency and parole board. The military numbers in this post are the confinement adjudged at trial, not the time served.
Military sentences include punishments federal sentences do not. A court-martial sentence can include a punitive discharge (bad-conduct discharge, dishonorable discharge, or dismissal for officers), reduction in rank, and forfeiture of pay. These have no federal counterpart. A comparison of months of confinement leaves them out. A short confinement term combined with a dishonorable discharge is a heavier sentence than the months alone show.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- Aggravated Assault: Federal Sentences vs. Article 128 Courts-Martial, 2016–2025 (overview)
- Aggravated Assault Charges: Federal Trial Acquittals vs. Contested Army Courts-Martial
- Aggravated Assault Charges: How Often Federal Trials and Courts-Martial End in Acquittal
- Aggravated Assault Charges: Federal Trial Acquittals vs. Contested Marine Corps Courts-Martial
- Aggravated Assault Charges: Federal Trial Acquittals vs. Contested Navy Courts-Martial
- Guilty Pleas in Aggravated Assault Cases: Federal Court vs. Courts-Martial
- Aggravated Assault Convictions of Junior Enlisted (E-1 to E-4): Courts-Martial Compared With Federal Court
- Army Article 128 Cases by the Numbers, 2021–2025 (court-martial data)
- Article 128 Sentences in the Army: Confinement and Discharges, 2021–2025 (court-martial data)
- How Often Are Contested Army Article 128 Cases Acquitted? (court-martial data)
- When Army Accused Plead Guilty to Assault (court-martial data)
- Fewer or More? Assault Charges at Air Force Courts-Martial, 2016–2025 (court-martial data)
- What Sentence Follows an Air Force Assault Conviction? (court-martial data)
- Pleading Guilty to Article 128 in the Air Force: What Sentences Followed? (court-martial data)
- Navy-Marine Corps Article 128 Cases by the Numbers, 2017–2025 (court-martial data)
- What Sentence Follows a Navy-Marine Corps Assault Conviction? (court-martial data)
- Not Guilty Pleas in Navy-Marine Corps Article 128 Cases: What Happened at Trial (court-martial data)
- Guilty Pleas in Navy-Marine Corps Assault Cases: How Often, and What Came Next (court-martial data)
- Article 128 (Assault): Court-Martial Data and Trends (court-martial data)
- Article 128 UCMJ: Assault, Aggravated Assault, and Strangulation (law firm reference page)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.