Guilty Pleas in Aggravated Assault Cases: Federal Court vs. Courts-Martial
In courts-martial charging aggravated assault under Article 128 from 2016 to 2025, 115 of 188 cases with a plea recorded (61%) ended in a guilty plea. In federal court, 4,200 of 4,493 people sentenced under guideline §2A2.2 (93%) pleaded guilty. Both groups plead guilty most of the time, but the cou
Understanding Trends in Military Practice · 7 min read
Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › Aggravated Assault › Aggravated Assault: Guilty Pleas
In brief: In courts-martial charging aggravated assault under Article 128 from 2016 to 2025, 115 of 188 cases with a plea recorded (61%) ended in a guilty plea. In federal court, 4,200 of 4,493 people sentenced under guideline §2A2.2 (93%) pleaded guilty. Both groups plead guilty most of the time, but the court-martial share is lower.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 4,493 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 and the Federal Judicial Center's records of 5,508 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, compared with court-martial results from this site's Military Trial Results data (updated November 2, 2026). It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Pleas in Courts-Martial for Aggravated Assault
The records show 188 courts-martial with a plea recorded. Of those, 115 (61%) were guilty pleas, 14 (7%) were mixed pleas, and 59 (31%) were not-guilty pleas. Another 31 cases have no plea recorded.
A mixed plea means guilty to some charges and not guilty to others. Cases with a not-guilty or mixed plea are called contested.
Plea Agreements
Where the records show whether a guilty plea came with an agreement, 78 of 82 (95%) had one. Plea agreement records are mostly from the Army, Navy, and Marine Corps.
In federal court, 89% of guilty pleas had a written plea agreement, and 11% were straight pleas with no agreement.
Federal Guilty Pleas
The U.S. Sentencing Commission counted 4,493 people sentenced under guideline §2A2.2 in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Of those, 4,200 (93%) pleaded guilty, and 293 were convicted after a trial.
This count includes only people who were sentenced. It excludes defendants whose cases ended in dismissal or acquittal.
A Wider Federal Count
The Federal Judicial Center counted 5,508 defendants charged under 18 U.S.C. 113, which covers assaults within federal jurisdiction. Their cases ended in the same fiscal years.
In that group, 3,910 (71%) pleaded guilty, 1,369 (25%) had their cases dismissed, and 229 (4%) went to trial. A conviction came in 4,055 cases (74%). Of the 229 trials, 84 ended in an acquittal (37%).
The 71% uses a different base than the 93%, because it includes dismissed cases.
By Service and by Year
By service, guilty pleas were 41 of 59 Army cases (69%), 29 of 61 Air Force cases (48%), 16 of 29 Navy cases (55%), and 29 of 39 Marine Corps cases (74%). Air Force plea information is missing for most trials before 2020.
By year, the court-martial guilty plea share was 92% in 2020, 66% in 2021, 63% in 2022, 60% in 2023, 57% in 2024, and 65% in 2025. The years before 2020 have only 3 to 5 cases with a plea recorded. Federal court was between 91% and 96% in every year.
| Year | Courts-martial: guilty pleas | Federal: pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1 of 5 (1 of 5) | 95% |
| 2017 | 1 of 5 (1 of 5) | 96% |
| 2018 | 1 of 3 (1 of 3) | 94% |
| 2019 | 2 of 5 (2 of 5) | 94% |
| 2020 | 11 of 12 (92%) | 96% |
| 2021 | 33 of 50 (66%) | 95% |
| 2022 | 24 of 38 (63%) | 94% |
| 2023 | 12 of 20 (60%) | 93% |
| 2024 | 17 of 30 (57%) | 91% |
| 2025 | 13 of 20 (65%) | 91% |
Service Table
The table gives the plea counts for each service. The numbers are as recorded in the trial results.
| Service | Cases with a plea recorded | Guilty pleas | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Army | 59 | 41 | 69% |
| Air Force | 61 | 29 | 48% |
| Navy | 29 | 16 | 55% |
| Marine Corps | 39 | 29 | 74% |
What the Records Cannot Show
These groups count different stages. The court-martial group is cases with a plea recorded. The federal groups are people sentenced and defendants whose cases ended.
A grand jury screens federal felonies, and a court-martial has no grand jury. The records cannot show why pleas were more or less common in one system, or whether pleas changed the sentence in a particular case.
How We Counted
Courts-martial: every court-martial charging aggravated assault (Article 128) with a trial date in 2016 to 2025 and a plea recorded (188). Federal: people sentenced under guideline §2A2.2 (aggravated assault) (4,493, U.S. Sentencing Commission) and defendants charged under 18 U.S.C. 113 (assaults within federal jurisdiction) whose cases ended (5,508, Federal Judicial Center), fiscal years 2016 to 2025.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
Who is in each set of numbers. The federal sentencing numbers come from the U.S. Sentencing Commission. They count only people who were convicted and sentenced in federal district court. People whose cases were dismissed or who were acquitted are not in them. The military numbers come from court-martial results, which include acquittals. To compare acquittal or dismissal rates, the federal side uses a different source: the Federal Judicial Center's case data, which counts every defendant whose case ended.
Different cases reach each system. Federal prosecutors bring a narrow set of cases. In fiscal year 2024, immigration and drug trafficking cases were 59% of everyone sentenced in federal court (36,664 of 61,678). Many crimes that the military prosecutes, such as most assaults, most sexual assaults between adults, and drug use, are usually state crimes for civilians and reach federal court only in special situations, such as on federal land or in Indian Country. A federal case and a court-martial for the same crime can involve different kinds of facts.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
Offense categories do not line up exactly. Each comparison uses a federal offense group chosen to match the military article as closely as possible (see the crosswalk). Some matches are close; others are partial. The post says which federal guideline or statute was used and why it is not an exact match.
Plea agreements work differently. In federal court, most plea agreements do not bind the judge on the sentence. Since 2019, a military plea agreement can set a minimum and maximum sentence that the military judge must follow if the judge accepts the agreement. The federal numbers count anyone who pleaded guilty, with or without a written agreement.
How "plea" and "trial" are counted. In the federal sentencing numbers, "trial" means the person was convicted after a trial, including people who pleaded guilty to some counts and went to trial on others. People acquitted at trial are not in these numbers at all (see "Who is in each set of numbers"). In the federal case data, the trial rate counts both convictions and acquittals at trial among all defendants whose cases ended, including dismissed cases. Military numbers count contested cases that reached a verdict. These denominators are not the same, and each post states the one it uses.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- Aggravated Assault: Federal Sentences vs. Article 128 Courts-Martial, 2016–2025 (overview)
- Aggravated Assault Sentences Since the 2023 Military Sentencing Reform: What the Data Shows So Far
- Aggravated Assault Charges: Federal Trial Acquittals vs. Contested Army Courts-Martial
- Aggravated Assault Charges: How Often Federal Trials and Courts-Martial End in Acquittal
- Aggravated Assault Charges: Federal Trial Acquittals vs. Contested Marine Corps Courts-Martial
- Aggravated Assault Charges: Federal Trial Acquittals vs. Contested Navy Courts-Martial
- Aggravated Assault Convictions of Junior Enlisted (E-1 to E-4): Courts-Martial Compared With Federal Court
- Army Article 128 Cases by the Numbers, 2021–2025 (court-martial data)
- Article 128 Sentences in the Army: Confinement and Discharges, 2021–2025 (court-martial data)
- How Often Are Contested Army Article 128 Cases Acquitted? (court-martial data)
- When Army Accused Plead Guilty to Assault (court-martial data)
- Fewer or More? Assault Charges at Air Force Courts-Martial, 2016–2025 (court-martial data)
- What Sentence Follows an Air Force Assault Conviction? (court-martial data)
- Pleading Guilty to Article 128 in the Air Force: What Sentences Followed? (court-martial data)
- Navy-Marine Corps Article 128 Cases by the Numbers, 2017–2025 (court-martial data)
- What Sentence Follows a Navy-Marine Corps Assault Conviction? (court-martial data)
- Not Guilty Pleas in Navy-Marine Corps Article 128 Cases: What Happened at Trial (court-martial data)
- Guilty Pleas in Navy-Marine Corps Assault Cases: How Often, and What Came Next (court-martial data)
- Article 128 (Assault): Court-Martial Data and Trends (court-martial data)
- Article 128 UCMJ: Assault, Aggravated Assault, and Strangulation (law firm reference page)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.