No Confinement: Federal Probation vs. Court-Martial Sentences With No Confinement
In courts-martial with trial dates from 2016 to 2025, 1,286 of 7,813 convictions with a sentence recorded (16%) had no confinement. In federal court, 46,079 of 659,036 people sentenced (7%) received probation only. The numbers describe different sentences and different kinds of cases.
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In brief: In courts-martial with trial dates from 2016 to 2025, 1,286 of 7,813 convictions with a sentence recorded (16%) had no confinement. In federal court, 46,079 of 659,036 people sentenced (7%) received probation only. The numbers describe different sentences and different kinds of cases.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 659,036 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, compared with court-martial results from this site's Military Trial Results data (updated November 2, 2026). Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
How Often Did a Court-Martial Sentence Include No Confinement?
Among the 7,813 courts-martial convictions with a sentence recorded, 1,286 had no confinement. That is 16%. The records cover trial dates from 2016 to 2025.
The rate was similar across the services. No confinement was 17% of 2,128 Army convictions, 15% of 2,168 Air Force convictions, 19% of 1,681 Navy convictions, and 16% of 1,836 Marine Corps convictions.
No confinement does not mean no punishment. A court-martial sentence with no confinement can still include a punitive discharge, reduction in rank, or forfeiture of pay.
Punitive Discharges Without Confinement
Of the 1,087 enlisted members convicted with no confinement, 276 still received a punitive discharge. A punitive discharge is a bad-conduct discharge or a dishonorable discharge. For an officer, the comparable sentence is a dismissal.
A general court-martial can impose any lawful sentence. A special court-martial caps confinement at one year and cannot impose a dishonorable discharge. The records used here do not break the no-confinement group down by type of court.
These punishments have no federal counterpart. A federal comparison of probation to prison leaves them out, and so does the reverse.
What Does Probation Only Mean in Federal Court?
The U.S. Sentencing Commission counted 659,036 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Of those, 46,079 received probation only (7%). Probation only means no prison and no other confinement.
The Commission's data covers only people who were convicted and sentenced. Court-martial data also includes only convictions in this comparison, because the 7,813 are convictions with a sentence recorded. Acquittals are outside both counts.
Probation Rates Depend on the Offense Type
The federal rate of probation only changed a great deal by offense type. It was 3% for drug trafficking (5,090 of 185,188) and 4% for immigration (8,898 of 217,838) and for firearms (3,427 of 78,851).
It was higher for fraud, theft, and embezzlement: 21% (12,467 of 58,502). Tax offenses were 24% (1,213 of 5,024), and administration of justice offenses were 22% (1,447 of 6,448). Drug possession was 31% (1,817 of 5,909).
The offense type called Other was 58% (5,788 of 9,918), and environmental offenses were 63% (1,027 of 1,638). The Commission defines these types, and the records here do not list what is inside Other.
| Federal offense type | People sentenced | Probation only |
|---|---|---|
| Fraud/Theft/Embezzlement | 58,502 | 12,467 (21%) |
| Immigration | 217,838 | 8,898 (4%) |
| Other | 9,918 | 5,788 (58%) |
| Drug Trafficking | 185,188 | 5,090 (3%) |
| Firearms | 78,851 | 3,427 (4%) |
| Drug Possession | 5,909 | 1,817 (31%) |
| Administration of Justice | 6,448 | 1,447 (22%) |
| Tax | 5,024 | 1,213 (24%) |
| Money Laundering | 12,171 | 1,095 (9%) |
| Environmental | 1,638 | 1,027 (63%) |
| Assault | 7,573 | 683 (9%) |
| Bribery/Corruption | 3,259 | 571 (18%) |
Why These Rates Do Not Line Up Directly
The federal total of 7% is heavily affected by immigration and drug trafficking, which have low probation rates and make up a large part of everyone sentenced. The court-martial total of 16% reflects a different mix of offenses.
The federal table lists offense types in order of how many probation-only sentences they had. Fraud, theft, and embezzlement had the most such sentences by count, at 12,467. Immigration had 8,898, which is a large count but a small share of its 217,838 people.
Federal prosecutors bring a narrow set of cases. Many crimes the military prosecutes, such as most assaults and drug use, are usually state crimes for civilians. A court-martial and a federal case for the same label can involve different facts.
Sentence structure differs as well. Federal probation is a term of supervision in the community. A court-martial sentence with no confinement is a different package of punishments, and it can include a discharge.
What the Records Cannot Show
The records do not show why a court-martial imposed no confinement, or what conditions came with a federal probation term. They do not show the charges behind each sentence in a way that matches the systems offense by offense.
The records do not show how many of the federal probation-only sentences involved conditions of supervision, so the federal figure says only that no prison term was imposed. They also do not show how many of the 1,286 court-martial convictions were at a special court-martial, where the possible punishments are narrower.
A rate of 16% and a rate of 7% are therefore descriptions of different groups. They are not a measure of which system is more or less severe.
How We Counted
Courts-martial with a trial date in 2016 to 2025 ending in a conviction with the sentence recorded (7,813). Federal: everyone sentenced in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 (659,036, U.S. Sentencing Commission); offense types are the Commission's.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
Who is in each set of numbers. The federal sentencing numbers come from the U.S. Sentencing Commission. They count only people who were convicted and sentenced in federal district court. People whose cases were dismissed or who were acquitted are not in them. The military numbers come from court-martial results, which include acquittals. To compare acquittal or dismissal rates, the federal side uses a different source: the Federal Judicial Center's case data, which counts every defendant whose case ended.
Different cases reach each system. Federal prosecutors bring a narrow set of cases. In fiscal year 2024, immigration and drug trafficking cases were 59% of everyone sentenced in federal court (36,664 of 61,678). Many crimes that the military prosecutes, such as most assaults, most sexual assaults between adults, and drug use, are usually state crimes for civilians and reach federal court only in special situations, such as on federal land or in Indian Country. A federal case and a court-martial for the same crime can involve different kinds of facts.
Military sentences include punishments federal sentences do not. A court-martial sentence can include a punitive discharge (bad-conduct discharge, dishonorable discharge, or dismissal for officers), reduction in rank, and forfeiture of pay. These have no federal counterpart. A comparison of months of confinement leaves them out. A short confinement term combined with a dishonorable discharge is a heavier sentence than the months alone show.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- Are Courts-Martial More Likely to End in Acquittal Than Federal Trials?
- Guilty Pleas in Federal Court vs. Courts-Martial, Year by Year
- Child Pornography Sentences: Federal Court vs. Courts-Martial, 2016–2025
- Federal Law Has No Crime of Drug Use: How Article 112a Cases Compare
- Drug Distribution and Importation: Federal vs. Court-Martial Sentences, 2016–2025
- Sexual Abuse of an Adult: Federal Cases vs. Article 120 Courts-Martial
- Child Sexual Abuse and Enticement: Federal Cases vs. Article 120b Courts-Martial
- Theft and Fraud by Dollar Loss: Federal Sentences vs. Article 121 Courts-Martial
- No Confinement: Federal Probation Sentences vs. Army Courts-Martial
- No Confinement: Federal Probation Sentences vs. Air Force Courts-Martial
- No Confinement: Federal Probation Sentences vs. Navy Courts-Martial
- No Confinement: Federal Probation Sentences vs. Marine Corps Courts-Martial
- Types of Military Discharge (law firm reference page)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.