No Confinement: Federal Probation Sentences vs. Air Force Courts-Martial
The Air Force recorded 2,168 convictions with a sentence recorded, with trial dates from 2016 to 2025, and 317 of them (15%) had no confinement. Federal court gave probation only to 46,079 of 659,036 people sentenced (7%) in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. The Air Force share was higher than the federal
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In brief: The Air Force recorded 2,168 convictions with a sentence recorded, with trial dates from 2016 to 2025, and 317 of them (15%) had no confinement. Federal court gave probation only to 46,079 of 659,036 people sentenced (7%) in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. The Air Force share was higher than the federal share, and it changed a good deal from year to year.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 659,036 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, compared with court-martial results from this site's Military Trial Results data (updated November 2, 2026). Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
How Much Did the Air Force Share Change by Year?
The Air Force share of convictions with no confinement was 15% in 2016 and 21% in 2017, its highest year. It was 18% in 2018 and 15% in 2019. In 2020 it was 7%, its lowest year, and it was 15% in 2021.
The share then went to 10% in 2022 and 9% in 2023, followed by 17% in 2024 and 13% in 2025. The federal probation-only share was between 6% and 8% in all of these years.
In 2020, the Air Force share was the same as the federal share, at 7%. In every other year it was higher.
| Year | Air Force convictions | No confinement | Federal: probation only |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 205 | 15% | 8% |
| 2017 | 295 | 21% | 8% |
| 2018 | 288 | 18% | 7% |
| 2019 | 272 | 15% | 7% |
| 2020 | 188 | 7% | 7% |
| 2021 | 202 | 15% | 7% |
| 2022 | 210 | 10% | 6% |
| 2023 | 158 | 9% | 6% |
| 2024 | 174 | 17% | 7% |
| 2025 | 176 | 13% | 7% |
What Is the Overall Air Force Figure?
Across the full period, the Air Force records list 2,168 convictions with a sentence recorded. A total of 317 (15%) had no confinement.
The U.S. Sentencing Commission data covers 659,036 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Of these, 46,079 (7%) received probation only, with no prison or other confinement.
Most No-Confinement Sentences Came From Special Courts-Martial
Of the 317 no-confinement convictions, 216 (68%) were at a special court-martial. A special court-martial caps confinement at one year and cannot impose a dishonorable discharge. A general court-martial can impose any lawful sentence.
The federal system has no court with a limit like this one, so the Air Force group includes sentences from courts that had less power to confine.
Punitive Discharges Without Confinement
Of the 278 enlisted members convicted with no confinement, 60 (22%) still received a punitive discharge. That means a bad-conduct discharge or a dishonorable discharge.
A sentence with no confinement may also include a reduction in rank, forfeiture of pay, or a reprimand. Each of these has an effect on a service member, even though none is confinement.
How the Counts Differ
In the federal data, probation only means a sentence length of zero, counting alternative confinement. The group is everyone sentenced for any federal offense.
The Air Force group is every court-martial conviction with a sentence recorded, for any offense under the UCMJ. A difference in these shares therefore does not show that Air Force courts treated the same conduct differently from federal courts.
What the Records Cannot Show
The records do not show the offense behind each no-confinement sentence, the role of any plea agreement, or the reasons for the sentence. They also do not show why the yearly share moved, and the changes in the table cannot be tied to any specific policy or event.
Federal fiscal years and court-martial trial dates are not the same calendar, so yearly comparisons are approximate.
How We Counted
Air Force: courts-martial with a trial date in 2016 to 2025 ending in a conviction with the sentence recorded (2,168). Federal: everyone sentenced in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 (659,036, U.S. Sentencing Commission); "probation only" means a sentence length of zero, counting alternative confinement.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
Who is in each set of numbers. The federal sentencing numbers come from the U.S. Sentencing Commission. They count only people who were convicted and sentenced in federal district court. People whose cases were dismissed or who were acquitted are not in them. The military numbers come from court-martial results, which include acquittals. To compare acquittal or dismissal rates, the federal side uses a different source: the Federal Judicial Center's case data, which counts every defendant whose case ended.
Different cases reach each system. Federal prosecutors bring a narrow set of cases. In fiscal year 2024, immigration and drug trafficking cases were 59% of everyone sentenced in federal court (36,664 of 61,678). Many crimes that the military prosecutes, such as most assaults, most sexual assaults between adults, and drug use, are usually state crimes for civilians and reach federal court only in special situations, such as on federal land or in Indian Country. A federal case and a court-martial for the same crime can involve different kinds of facts.
Military sentences include punishments federal sentences do not. A court-martial sentence can include a punitive discharge (bad-conduct discharge, dishonorable discharge, or dismissal for officers), reduction in rank, and forfeiture of pay. These have no federal counterpart. A comparison of months of confinement leaves them out. A short confinement term combined with a dishonorable discharge is a heavier sentence than the months alone show.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- No Confinement: Federal Probation vs. Court-Martial Sentences With No Confinement (overview)
- No Confinement: Federal Probation Sentences vs. Army Courts-Martial
- No Confinement: Federal Probation Sentences vs. Navy Courts-Martial
- No Confinement: Federal Probation Sentences vs. Marine Corps Courts-Martial
- Types of Military Discharge (law firm reference page)
- Air Force Courts-Martial: Data and Trends (court-martial data)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.