§2K1.4 Arson: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2021
Almost every person sentenced under §2K1.4 in fiscal year 2021 pleaded guilty: 76 of 78 (97%). The median prison term was 48 months (4 years), lower than the 60 months for this guideline across fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Only 2 people were convicted after a trial.
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Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › §2K1.4 Arson › §2K1.4: FY2021
In brief: Almost every person sentenced under §2K1.4 in fiscal year 2021 pleaded guilty: 76 of 78 (97%). The median prison term was 48 months (4 years), lower than the 60 months for this guideline across fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Only 2 people were convicted after a trial.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 78 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2021. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Pleas Dominated Fiscal Year 2021
76 of the 78 people (97%) pleaded guilty, and 2 were convicted after a trial. Of those who pleaded guilty, 91% had a written plea agreement and 9% did not.
The median prison term after a guilty plea was 45 months. After a trial it was 343 months, but that figure is based on only 2 people and says very little on its own.
The overall plea rate of 97% for this guideline compares with 98% for all guidelines in fiscal year 2021. Over fiscal years 2016 to 2025, the plea rate for §2K1.4 was 93%.
The Median Prison Term of 48 Months
76 of the 78 people (97%) were sentenced to prison, and 1 (1%) received probation only. The median prison term was 48 months. A quarter received 60.7 months or more, and a quarter received 26.2 months or less.
For all federal cases in fiscal year 2021, the median prison term was 29 months. For §2K1.4 in the year before, fiscal year 2020, it was 60 months, and in the year after, fiscal year 2022, it was 51 months.
Sentences Against the Guideline Range
36 sentences (46%) were within the guideline range. 21 (27%) were below the range at the government's request, and 14 (18%) were below it without that request. 7 (9%) were above the range.
For all guidelines in fiscal year 2021, 43% of sentences were within the range.
How Many Faced a Mandatory Minimum
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 42 of the 78 people with that information recorded (54%).
The records show that a minimum applied. They do not show the length of the minimum or how it affected each sentence.
Supervised Release, Fines, Restitution, and Criminal History
76 people (97%) were ordered to serve supervised release after prison, with a median term of 36 months. A fine was ordered for 1 person (1%). Restitution was ordered for 60 (77%).
In criminal history, 42% were in category I, the lowest, and 10% were in category VI, the highest.
Reading the Table for Fiscal Years 2016 to 2025
The Sentencing Guidelines Manual titles §2K1.4 "Arson; Property Damage by Use of Explosives." Fiscal year 2021 ran from October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021, and the Commission labels the 78 cases as the offense type Arson.
The table shows the count, median prison term, and plea rate for fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Over that period, 727 people were sentenced under this guideline, and 93% pleaded guilty.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 63 | 48 months | 92% |
| 2017 | 53 | 60 months | 94% |
| 2018 | 52 | 58.5 months | 87% |
| 2019 | 66 | 60 months | 85% |
| 2020 | 47 | 60 months | 85% |
| 2021 | 78 | 48 months | 97% |
| 2022 | 103 | 51 months | 96% |
| 2023 | 105 | 60 months | 98% |
| 2024 | 84 | 60 months | 93% |
| 2025 | 76 | 60 months | 93% |
What Cannot Be Learned Here
Only convicted and sentenced people are in the Commission's data, so acquittals and dismissals are missing. The data also gives no reason for the year-to-year changes.
No court-martial counterpart for this guideline is in the approved crosswalk, so the numbers stand alone.
The prison terms are those imposed at sentencing, not the time served. The small number of trials in this year also means the records give almost no basis for comparing trial and plea sentences.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2021 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2K1.4 (78), U.S. Sentencing Commission individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2K1.4 Arson: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- §2K1.4 Arson: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2020 (previous or next fiscal year)
- §2K1.4 Arson: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2022 (previous or next fiscal year)
- How Often Federal Judges Sentence Outside the Guideline Range
- Mandatory Minimums: How Many Federal Sentences Are Set by Congress
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.