§2G1.3 Promoting a Commercial Sex Act or Prohibited Sexual Conduct with a Minor: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2025
In fiscal year 2025, 367 people were sentenced in federal court under §2G1.3 as the primary guideline. 55% of the sentences (201) were within the guideline range, which is higher than in fiscal year 2024 and in all guidelines combined. All 367 received a prison term, with a median of 121 months (10.
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Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › §2G1.3 Promoting a Commercial Sex Act or Prohibited Sexual C › §2G1.3: FY2025
In brief: In fiscal year 2025, 367 people were sentenced in federal court under §2G1.3 as the primary guideline. 55% of the sentences (201) were within the guideline range, which is higher than in fiscal year 2024 and in all guidelines combined. All 367 received a prison term, with a median of 121 months (10.1 years).
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 367 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2025. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Sentences Within the Guideline Range in Fiscal Year 2025
The U.S. Sentencing Commission had range information for all 367 people. 55% (201) were sentenced within the guideline range. 18% (67) were below the range at the government's request, and 19% (69) were below the range without a government request. 8% (30) were above the range.
In fiscal year 2024, the within-range share was 47%. For all guidelines in fiscal year 2025, it was 51%. The all-years share under §2G1.3 was 46%.
Prison Terms and Life Sentences
All 367 people (100%) received a prison term, and none received probation only. The median was 121 months, which is 10.1 years.
A quarter received 188 months or more, and a quarter received 120 months or less. 9 people received a life sentence. A mandatory minimum applied to 278 of the 366 people with that information recorded (76%).
Trial Convictions Were Few, and Their Median Was Longer
Pleas accounted for 335 of the 367 people (91%), and 32 were convicted after a trial. The median prison term was 120 months after a guilty plea and 237.5 months after a trial.
The trial median rests on 32 people, so a few sentences can move it. Among the guilty pleas, 87% had a written plea agreement, and 13% were straight pleas with no agreement.
The data cannot show why trial sentences were longer, and it leaves out anyone who was acquitted.
Supervised Release for Life
After prison, 365 people (more than 99%) were ordered to serve supervised release. The median term was 120 months. A lifetime term went to 93 people (25%).
Prison terms here are the ones imposed, not time served.
Fines, Restitution, and Criminal History
A fine was ordered for 11 people (3%), and restitution for 83 (23%).
68% were in the lowest criminal history category (category I), and 4% were in the highest (category VI). Court-martial records have no criminal history field.
Year-by-Year and All-Guidelines Context
The table lists every year from fiscal year 2016 to fiscal year 2025. Over those years, 3,908 people were sentenced under §2G1.3, more than 99% went to prison, the median was 120 months, and 88% pleaded guilty.
In fiscal year 2025, 66,662 people were sentenced under all guidelines. Their median prison term was 24 months, and 98% pleaded guilty. The previous year, fiscal year 2024, had 406 people under §2G1.3 and a median of 121 months.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 418 | 120 months | 86% |
| 2017 | 403 | 120 months | 90% |
| 2018 | 408 | 120 months | 89% |
| 2019 | 375 | 120 months | 88% |
| 2020 | 305 | 120 months | 88% |
| 2021 | 336 | 120 months | 88% |
| 2022 | 475 | 120 months | 86% |
| 2023 | 415 | 120 months | 84% |
| 2024 | 406 | 121 months | 86% |
| 2025 | 367 | 121 months | 91% |
What the Records Leave Out
Fiscal year 2025 ran from October 1, 2024 to September 30, 2025. The Commission lists all 367 cases under its Sexual Abuse offense type.
The guideline is paired with Article 120b of the UCMJ in the comparison posts on this site, and this post reports the federal numbers alone. One year is not a trend, and the records cannot show what caused any figure.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2025 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2G1.3 (367), U.S. Sentencing Commission individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2G1.3 Promoting a Commercial Sex Act or Prohibited Sexual Conduct with a Minor: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- §2G1.3 Promoting a Commercial Sex Act or Prohibited Sexual Conduct with a Minor: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2024 (previous or next fiscal year)
- How Often Federal Judges Sentence Outside the Guideline Range
- Mandatory Minimums: How Many Federal Sentences Are Set by Congress
- Fewer or More? Child Sexual Abuse Charges at Army Courts-Martial, 2021–2025 (court-martial data)
- How Much Confinement for an Article 120b Conviction in the Army? (court-martial data)
- How Often Are Contested Army Article 120b Cases Acquitted? (court-martial data)
- Pleading Guilty to Article 120b in the Army: What Sentences Followed? (court-martial data)
- How Has Article 120b Changed in Air Force Courts-Martial Since 2016? (court-martial data)
- How Much Confinement for an Article 120b Conviction in the Air Force? (court-martial data)
- Guilty Pleas in Air Force Child Sexual Abuse Cases: How Often, and What Came Next (court-martial data)
- Fewer or More? Child Sexual Abuse Charges at Navy-Marine Corps Courts-Martial, 2017–2025 (court-martial data)
- What Sentence Follows a Navy-Marine Corps Child Sexual Abuse Conviction? (court-martial data)
- Fighting a Navy-Marine Corps Child Sexual Abuse Charge: How Contested Cases Ended (court-martial data)
- Guilty Pleas in Navy-Marine Corps Child Sexual Abuse Cases: How Often, and What Came Next (court-martial data)
- Article 120b (Rape and Sexual Assault of a Child): Court-Martial Data and Trends (court-martial data)
- Article 120b UCMJ: Rape and Sexual Assault of a Child (law firm reference page)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.