§2G1.3 Promoting a Commercial Sex Act or Prohibited Sexual Conduct with a Minor: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025
Guideline §2G1.3 had a median prison term of 120 months among 3,908 people sentenced in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. A mandatory minimum applied to 72%, and 17% received supervised release for life.
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In brief: Guideline §2G1.3 had a median prison term of 120 months among 3,908 people sentenced in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. A mandatory minimum applied to 72%, and 17% received supervised release for life.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 3,908 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
A Median of 120 Months
The Sentencing Guidelines Manual gives §2G1.3 a long title: "Promoting a Commercial Sex Act or Prohibited Sexual Conduct with a Minor; Transportation of Minors to Engage in a Commercial Sex Act or Prohibited Sexual Conduct; Travel to Engage in Commercial Sex Act or Prohibited Sexual Conduct with a Minor; Sex Trafficking of Children; Use of Interstate Facilities to Transport Information about a Minor."
Over fiscal years 2016 to 2025, 3,908 people were sentenced with this as the primary guideline. 3,889 (more than 99%) received prison, and 12 (less than 1%) received probation only. The median prison term was 120 months (10 years). A quarter received 180 months or more, and a quarter received 96 months or less. 64 people received a life sentence.
Mandatory Minimums Were Common
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 2,793 people (72%). The sheet does not say which sentences were set by the minimum, or how long each minimum was. A mandatory minimum is a prison term the law requires at least, so a share this size matters when reading the medians in this post.
Pleas and Trials
3,423 people (88%) pleaded guilty, and 485 were convicted after a trial. 90% of guilty pleas had a written plea agreement.
The median prison term was 120 months after a guilty plea and 192 months after a trial. The trial figure covers 485 people sent to prison. The records do not show whether the cases that went to trial were alike, so the gap should be read as a description only.
Long Supervised Release
Supervised release was ordered for 3,875 people (more than 99%). The median term was 120 months, and 660 people (17%) received supervised release for life.
A fine was ordered for 239 people (6%), and restitution for 852 (22%). In criminal history, 60% were in the lowest category and 5% were in the highest.
Against the Guideline Range
Of 3,906 cases with the information, 46% (1,799) were within the range. 26% (1,011) were below it at the government's request, and 22% (845) were below it without a government request. 6% (251) were above the range.
A Median That Hardly Moved
The yearly median was 120 months in every fiscal year from 2016 to 2023, and 121 months in 2024 and 2025. Fiscal years 2016 to 2019 had 1,604 people and fiscal years 2020 to 2025 had 2,304, both with a median of 120 months.
The count of people sentenced ranged from 305 in 2020 to 475 in 2022. The share who pleaded guilty ranged from 84% in 2023 to 91% in 2025.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 418 | 120 months | 86% |
| 2017 | 403 | 120 months | 90% |
| 2018 | 408 | 120 months | 89% |
| 2019 | 375 | 120 months | 88% |
| 2020 | 305 | 120 months | 88% |
| 2021 | 336 | 120 months | 88% |
| 2022 | 475 | 120 months | 86% |
| 2023 | 415 | 120 months | 84% |
| 2024 | 406 | 121 months | 86% |
| 2025 | 367 | 121 months | 91% |
Military Crosswalk and Limits
The crosswalk pairs this guideline with Article 120b of the UCMJ, and the comparison posts cover that pairing. This post reports only the federal numbers. The records omit acquittals and dismissals, and they report prison terms imposed rather than time served. They cannot show the facts of any case or why a person received supervised release for life.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2G1.3 (3,908), from the U.S. Sentencing Commission's individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2G1.1 Promoting a Commercial Sex Act or Prohibited Sexual Conduct with an Individual Other than a Minor: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- §2G3.1 Importing, Mailing, or Transporting Obscene Matter: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- §2G2.6 Child Exploitation Enterprises: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- Fewer or More? Child Sexual Abuse Charges at Army Courts-Martial, 2021–2025 (court-martial data)
- How Much Confinement for an Article 120b Conviction in the Army? (court-martial data)
- How Often Are Contested Army Article 120b Cases Acquitted? (court-martial data)
- Pleading Guilty to Article 120b in the Army: What Sentences Followed? (court-martial data)
- How Has Article 120b Changed in Air Force Courts-Martial Since 2016? (court-martial data)
- How Much Confinement for an Article 120b Conviction in the Air Force? (court-martial data)
- Guilty Pleas in Air Force Child Sexual Abuse Cases: How Often, and What Came Next (court-martial data)
- Fewer or More? Child Sexual Abuse Charges at Navy-Marine Corps Courts-Martial, 2017–2025 (court-martial data)
- What Sentence Follows a Navy-Marine Corps Child Sexual Abuse Conviction? (court-martial data)
- Fighting a Navy-Marine Corps Child Sexual Abuse Charge: How Contested Cases Ended (court-martial data)
- Guilty Pleas in Navy-Marine Corps Child Sexual Abuse Cases: How Often, and What Came Next (court-martial data)
- Article 120b (Rape and Sexual Assault of a Child): Court-Martial Data and Trends (court-martial data)
- Article 120b UCMJ: Rape and Sexual Assault of a Child (law firm reference page)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.