§2G1.3 Promoting a Commercial Sex Act or Prohibited Sexual Conduct with a Minor: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2023
In fiscal year 2023, 415 people were sentenced in federal court under §2G1.3 as the primary guideline. 413 (more than 99%) received a prison term, and the median prison term was 120 months (10 years). The median supervised release term was 84 months, and 10 people received a life sentence.
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In brief: In fiscal year 2023, 415 people were sentenced in federal court under §2G1.3 as the primary guideline. 413 (more than 99%) received a prison term, and the median prison term was 120 months (10 years). The median supervised release term was 84 months, and 10 people received a life sentence.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 415 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2023. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Life Sentences and Supervised Release in Fiscal Year 2023
The U.S. Sentencing Commission counted 415 people sentenced under §2G1.3 in fiscal year 2023. Of those, 10 received a life sentence.
After prison, 413 people (more than 99%) were ordered to serve supervised release. The median term was 84 months, and 79 people (19%) received supervised release for life.
Fiscal year 2023 ran from October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023.
The Range of Prison Terms
413 of the 415 people (more than 99%) received a prison term. 2 people (less than 1%) received probation only.
The median prison term was 120 months. A quarter of those sent to prison received 180 months or more, and a quarter received 102 months or less. These are terms imposed, not time served.
A mandatory minimum applied to 312 of the 415 people (75%).
Did Going to Trial Change the Median Term?
Among the 415 people, 347 (84%) pleaded guilty, and 68 were convicted after a trial. The median prison term was 120 months after a guilty plea and 180 months after a trial. The trial figure is based on 68 people who were convicted and sent to prison.
Of the guilty pleas, 90% had a written plea agreement, and 10% did not.
The records show that the medians differ. They do not show whether the choice of a trial, the facts, or the charges account for that difference, and they exclude anyone who was acquitted.
Sentences Against the Guideline Range
The Commission had range information for 414 people. 43% (179) were sentenced within the guideline range. 28% (115) were below the range at the government's request, and 23% (94) were below the range without a government request.
6% (26) were above the range. The previous year had 45% within the range, and the next year had 47%. For all guidelines in fiscal year 2023, 42% were within the range.
Fines, Restitution, and Criminal History
A fine was ordered for 31 people (7%), and restitution for 107 (26%).
61% of the people were in the lowest criminal history category (category I), and 4% were in the highest (category VI). Court-martial records have no criminal history field.
All Years and All Guidelines
From fiscal year 2016 to fiscal year 2025, 3,908 people were sentenced under §2G1.3. More than 99% went to prison, the median prison term was 120 months, 88% pleaded guilty, and 46% were within the range. The table lists each year.
In fiscal year 2023, 64,124 people were sentenced under all guidelines. The median prison term was 30 months, and 97% pleaded guilty.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 418 | 120 months | 86% |
| 2017 | 403 | 120 months | 90% |
| 2018 | 408 | 120 months | 89% |
| 2019 | 375 | 120 months | 88% |
| 2020 | 305 | 120 months | 88% |
| 2021 | 336 | 120 months | 88% |
| 2022 | 475 | 120 months | 86% |
| 2023 | 415 | 120 months | 84% |
| 2024 | 406 | 121 months | 86% |
| 2025 | 367 | 121 months | 91% |
Reading the Numbers Carefully
The Commission files this post draws on classify all 415 cases as Sexual Abuse. The records give no reason for any figure, and one year of this size should not be read as a trend.
The guideline is paired with Article 120b of the UCMJ in the comparison posts on this site. This post reports the federal numbers on their own.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2023 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2G1.3 (415), U.S. Sentencing Commission individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2G1.3 Promoting a Commercial Sex Act or Prohibited Sexual Conduct with a Minor: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- §2G1.3 Promoting a Commercial Sex Act or Prohibited Sexual Conduct with a Minor: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2022 (previous or next fiscal year)
- §2G1.3 Promoting a Commercial Sex Act or Prohibited Sexual Conduct with a Minor: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2024 (previous or next fiscal year)
- How Often Federal Judges Sentence Outside the Guideline Range
- Mandatory Minimums: How Many Federal Sentences Are Set by Congress
- Fewer or More? Child Sexual Abuse Charges at Army Courts-Martial, 2021–2025 (court-martial data)
- How Much Confinement for an Article 120b Conviction in the Army? (court-martial data)
- How Often Are Contested Army Article 120b Cases Acquitted? (court-martial data)
- Pleading Guilty to Article 120b in the Army: What Sentences Followed? (court-martial data)
- How Has Article 120b Changed in Air Force Courts-Martial Since 2016? (court-martial data)
- How Much Confinement for an Article 120b Conviction in the Air Force? (court-martial data)
- Guilty Pleas in Air Force Child Sexual Abuse Cases: How Often, and What Came Next (court-martial data)
- Fewer or More? Child Sexual Abuse Charges at Navy-Marine Corps Courts-Martial, 2017–2025 (court-martial data)
- What Sentence Follows a Navy-Marine Corps Child Sexual Abuse Conviction? (court-martial data)
- Fighting a Navy-Marine Corps Child Sexual Abuse Charge: How Contested Cases Ended (court-martial data)
- Guilty Pleas in Navy-Marine Corps Child Sexual Abuse Cases: How Often, and What Came Next (court-martial data)
- Article 120b (Rape and Sexual Assault of a Child): Court-Martial Data and Trends (court-martial data)
- Article 120b UCMJ: Rape and Sexual Assault of a Child (law firm reference page)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.