§2D1.1 Unlawful Manufacturing, Importing, Exporting, or Trafficking (Including Possession with Intent to Commit These Offenses): Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2025
Of the 15,950 people sentenced under §2D1.1 in fiscal year 2025, 97% received a prison term, and the median was 72 months (6 years). That is the highest median in the yearly table, which starts in fiscal year 2016. A guilty plea ended 98% of the cases, and 29% of sentences were within the guideline
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Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › §2D1.1 Unlawful Manufacturing, Importing, Exporting, or Traf › §2D1.1: FY2025
In brief: Of the 15,950 people sentenced under §2D1.1 in fiscal year 2025, 97% received a prison term, and the median was 72 months (6 years). That is the highest median in the yearly table, which starts in fiscal year 2016. A guilty plea ended 98% of the cases, and 29% of sentences were within the guideline range.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 15,950 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2025. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
The Highest Median in the Yearly Table
In fiscal year 2025, 15,400 of the 15,950 people sentenced under §2D1.1 (97%) received a prison term, and 471 (3%) received probation only. The median prison term was 72 months (6 years).
The medians for the years before it were 70 months in fiscal year 2024 and 65 months in fiscal year 2023. For fiscal years 2017 to 2022 the median was 60 months, and in fiscal year 2016 it was 55 months.
A quarter of the people sent to prison in fiscal year 2025 received 120 months or more, and a quarter received 36 months or less. 11 people received a life sentence, a small count.
Fewer People, Longer Medians
The 2025 count of 15,950 is lower than the 17,771 in fiscal year 2024 and is the lowest in the yearly table. The records show both facts for the same year. They do not show whether one is related to the other.
Fiscal year 2025 ran from October 1, 2024 to September 30, 2025. Because it is the latest year in the data, there is no later year to compare, and the length of any change in medians may be too early to judge.
Pleas and Trials in Fiscal Year 2025
A guilty plea ended 15,609 cases (98%), and 341 people were convicted after a trial. Among the guilty pleas, 92% had a written plea agreement and 8% were straight pleas with no agreement.
The median prison term was 71 months after a guilty plea. After a trial it was 188 months, based on 337 people convicted at trial and sent to prison.
Range Position and Mandatory Minimums
For the 15,944 people with the information, 29% (4,610) were sentenced within the guideline range. A sentence below the range at the government's request applied to 43% (6,798), and below the range without a government request to 27% (4,237). A sentence above the range applied to 2% (299). The share within the range in fiscal year 2024 was 28%, about the same as in 2025.
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 9,312 of the 15,949 people with that information recorded (58%).
What the Guideline Covers
The Sentencing Guidelines Manual titles §2D1.1 "Unlawful Manufacturing, Importing, Exporting, or Trafficking (Including Possession with Intent to Commit These Offenses); Attempt or Conspiracy". The Commission places all 15,950 cases in its Drug Trafficking offense type.
Across fiscal years 2016 to 2025, §2D1.1 covered 181,468 people. The median prison term for the period was 60 months, 98% pleaded guilty, and 31% were within the range. In fiscal year 2025, everyone sentenced under any guideline numbered 66,662, with a median prison term of 24 months, 98% guilty pleas, and 51% within the range.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19,199 | 55 months | 98% |
| 2017 | 19,223 | 60 months | 98% |
| 2018 | 18,404 | 60 months | 97% |
| 2019 | 19,463 | 60 months | 98% |
| 2020 | 15,965 | 60 months | 98% |
| 2021 | 17,241 | 60 months | 99% |
| 2022 | 19,612 | 60 months | 98% |
| 2023 | 18,640 | 65 months | 98% |
| 2024 | 17,771 | 70 months | 98% |
| 2025 | 15,950 | 72 months | 98% |
Supervised Release, Fines, and Criminal History
Supervised release followed prison for 15,155 people (95%), with a median term of 48 months. 18 people (less than 1%) received it for life. A fine was ordered for 924 (6%) and restitution for 292 (2%).
In criminal history, 44% were in the lowest category (category I) and 14% in the highest (category VI).
What These Figures Do Not Show
The Commission counts only people who were convicted and sentenced. Acquittals and dismissals are not in the data, and prison terms are the terms imposed, not time served.
The approved crosswalk pairs §2D1.1 with Article 112a of the UCMJ. The comparison posts cover that article, and this post reports federal numbers alone.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2025 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2D1.1 (15,950), U.S. Sentencing Commission individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2D1.1 Unlawful Manufacturing, Importing, Exporting, or Trafficking (Including Possession with Intent to Commit These Offenses): Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- §2D1.1 Unlawful Manufacturing, Importing, Exporting, or Trafficking (Including Possession with Intent to Commit These Offenses): Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2024 (previous or next fiscal year)
- How Often Federal Judges Sentence Outside the Guideline Range
- Mandatory Minimums: How Many Federal Sentences Are Set by Congress
- Army Article 112a Cases by the Numbers, 2021–2025 (court-martial data)
- What Sentence Follows an Army Drug Conviction? (court-martial data)
- How Often Are Contested Army Article 112a Cases Acquitted? (court-martial data)
- Guilty Pleas in Army Drug Cases: How Often, and What Came Next (court-martial data)
- Are Air Force Drug Courts-Martial Disappearing? Article 112a, 2016–2025 (court-martial data)
- How Much Confinement for an Article 112a Conviction in the Air Force? (court-martial data)
- Pleading Guilty to Article 112a in the Air Force: What Sentences Followed? (court-martial data)
- Is Navy-Marine Corps Drug Prosecution Rising or Falling? Article 112a, 2017–2025 (court-martial data)
- How Much Confinement for an Article 112a Conviction in the Navy-Marine Corps? (court-martial data)
- Fighting a Navy-Marine Corps Drug Charge: How Contested Cases Ended (court-martial data)
- When Navy-Marine Corps Accused Plead Guilty to Drug (court-martial data)
- Article 112a (Wrongful Use, Possession of Controlled Substances): Court-Martial Data and Trends (court-martial data)
- Article 112a UCMJ Drug Offenses and Positive Urinalysis (law firm reference page)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.