§2D1.1 Unlawful Manufacturing, Importing, Exporting, or Trafficking (Including Possession with Intent to Commit These Offenses): Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2023
The median prison term under §2D1.1 in fiscal year 2023 was 65 months (5.4 years), among 18,640 people sentenced. That median is higher than the 60 months reported for fiscal year 2022. Of the 18,640, 98% pleaded guilty, and 26% were sentenced within the guideline range.
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Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › §2D1.1 Unlawful Manufacturing, Importing, Exporting, or Traf › §2D1.1: FY2023
In brief: The median prison term under §2D1.1 in fiscal year 2023 was 65 months (5.4 years), among 18,640 people sentenced. That median is higher than the 60 months reported for fiscal year 2022. Of the 18,640, 98% pleaded guilty, and 26% were sentenced within the guideline range.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 18,640 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2023. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
A Median of 65 Months in Fiscal Year 2023
Among the people sent to prison under §2D1.1 in fiscal year 2023, the median prison term was 65 months (5.4 years). A quarter received 120 months or more, and a quarter received 33 months or less.
In fiscal year 2022, the median was 60 months, and it was also 60 months in each year from 2017 to 2021. The 2023 median is therefore higher than in the years just before it. Fiscal year 2024 had a median of 70 months.
The records show that the median was higher in fiscal year 2023 and do not show why. It may also be too early to tell whether the higher medians in fiscal years 2023 to 2025 will continue.
Who Received a Prison Term
In fiscal year 2023, the Commission counted 18,640 people with §2D1.1 as the primary guideline. A prison term went to 18,120 (97%), and 415 (2%) received probation only. 15 people received a life sentence, which is a small count.
The Sentencing Guidelines Manual titles §2D1.1 "Unlawful Manufacturing, Importing, Exporting, or Trafficking (Including Possession with Intent to Commit These Offenses); Attempt or Conspiracy". Fiscal year 2023 ran from October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023.
Guilty Pleas and Trial Convictions
A total of 18,221 people (98%) pleaded guilty, and 419 were convicted after a trial. Among the guilty pleas, 93% had a written plea agreement and 7% were straight pleas.
The median prison term was 63 months after a guilty plea. After a trial it was 180 months, based on 417 people convicted at trial and sent to prison.
Guideline Range and Mandatory Minimums
For the 18,635 people with the information, 26% (4,915) were sentenced within the guideline range. A sentence below the range at the government's request applied to 45% (8,418), below the range without a government request to 27% (5,001), and above the range to 2% (301).
The share within the range was 27% in fiscal year 2022 and 28% in fiscal year 2024. A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 12,054 of the 18,635 people with that information recorded (65%).
Compared With the Whole Period
From fiscal year 2016 to fiscal year 2025, §2D1.1 covered 181,468 people. The median prison term for the period was 60 months, 98% pleaded guilty, and 31% were sentenced within the range.
In fiscal year 2023, all guidelines together covered 64,124 people, with a median prison term of 30 months, 97% guilty pleas, and 42% within the range. The table lists the §2D1.1 count, median, and plea rate for every year.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19,199 | 55 months | 98% |
| 2017 | 19,223 | 60 months | 98% |
| 2018 | 18,404 | 60 months | 97% |
| 2019 | 19,463 | 60 months | 98% |
| 2020 | 15,965 | 60 months | 98% |
| 2021 | 17,241 | 60 months | 99% |
| 2022 | 19,612 | 60 months | 98% |
| 2023 | 18,640 | 65 months | 98% |
| 2024 | 17,771 | 70 months | 98% |
| 2025 | 15,950 | 72 months | 98% |
Supervised Release, Fines, and Criminal History
Supervised release was ordered for 17,908 people (96%), with a median term of 48 months. 5 people (less than 1%) received it for life. A fine was ordered for 1,069 (6%) and restitution for 242 (1%).
In criminal history, 42% were in the lowest category (category I) and 15% in the highest (category VI).
Limits of One Year of Data
Only people who were convicted and sentenced are counted. Acquittals and dismissals are not in the Commission's data. Prison terms are the terms imposed, not time served.
The approved crosswalk pairs §2D1.1 with Article 112a of the UCMJ. The comparison posts cover that article, and this post reports the federal numbers on their own.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2023 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2D1.1 (18,640), U.S. Sentencing Commission individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2D1.1 Unlawful Manufacturing, Importing, Exporting, or Trafficking (Including Possession with Intent to Commit These Offenses): Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- §2D1.1 Unlawful Manufacturing, Importing, Exporting, or Trafficking (Including Possession with Intent to Commit These Offenses): Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2022 (previous or next fiscal year)
- §2D1.1 Unlawful Manufacturing, Importing, Exporting, or Trafficking (Including Possession with Intent to Commit These Offenses): Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2024 (previous or next fiscal year)
- How Often Federal Judges Sentence Outside the Guideline Range
- Mandatory Minimums: How Many Federal Sentences Are Set by Congress
- Army Article 112a Cases by the Numbers, 2021–2025 (court-martial data)
- What Sentence Follows an Army Drug Conviction? (court-martial data)
- How Often Are Contested Army Article 112a Cases Acquitted? (court-martial data)
- Guilty Pleas in Army Drug Cases: How Often, and What Came Next (court-martial data)
- Are Air Force Drug Courts-Martial Disappearing? Article 112a, 2016–2025 (court-martial data)
- How Much Confinement for an Article 112a Conviction in the Air Force? (court-martial data)
- Pleading Guilty to Article 112a in the Air Force: What Sentences Followed? (court-martial data)
- Is Navy-Marine Corps Drug Prosecution Rising or Falling? Article 112a, 2017–2025 (court-martial data)
- How Much Confinement for an Article 112a Conviction in the Navy-Marine Corps? (court-martial data)
- Fighting a Navy-Marine Corps Drug Charge: How Contested Cases Ended (court-martial data)
- When Navy-Marine Corps Accused Plead Guilty to Drug (court-martial data)
- Article 112a (Wrongful Use, Possession of Controlled Substances): Court-Martial Data and Trends (court-martial data)
- Article 112a UCMJ Drug Offenses and Positive Urinalysis (law firm reference page)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.