Federal Drug Trafficking Sentences in the District of Minnesota, FY2016–2025
Drug trafficking was the largest offense type in the District of Minnesota in fiscal years 2016 to 2025: 1,315 people, or 36% of the 3,630 sentenced. The median prison term was 87 months (7.2 years), which is higher than the 60 months for this offense type in all 94 federal districts together. A man
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Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › Federal Sentences in the District of Minnesota, FY2016–2025 › Drug Trafficking: District of Minnesota
In brief: Drug trafficking was the largest offense type in the District of Minnesota in fiscal years 2016 to 2025: 1,315 people, or 36% of the 3,630 sentenced. The median prison term was 87 months (7.2 years), which is higher than the 60 months for this offense type in all 94 federal districts together. A mandatory minimum applied to 79% of the group.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 1,315 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
The Largest Share of the District's Cases
The U.S. Sentencing Commission places each sentenced person in an offense type according to the primary guideline. In Minnesota, 1,312 of the 1,315 people in "Drug Trafficking" had §2D1.1 (Unlawful Manufacturing, Importing, Exporting, or Trafficking (Including Possession with Intent to Commit These Offenses)) as the primary guideline. §2D1.8 (Renting or Managing a Drug Establishment) had 3.
Because this offense type is 36% of the district's sentenced people, it affects the district's overall figures. For all offenses in the District of Minnesota, the median prison term was 70 months.
Prison Terms
1,302 of the 1,315 people (more than 99%) received a prison term, and 10 (less than 1%) received probation only. In all districts, 96% were sent to prison.
Among those sent to prison, a quarter received 132 months or more, and a quarter received 57 months or less. 1 person received a life sentence. The data records terms imposed, not time served.
Mandatory Minimums
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 1,035 of the 1,315 people with that information recorded (79%). A mandatory minimum is a prison term set by statute that a judge must impose unless a legal exception applies.
The records do not show which sentences were shortened by an exception, so the share with a mandatory minimum cannot be tied to the length of any one sentence.
Sentences Against the Guideline Range
The largest group, 48% (626 people), was sentenced below the guideline range without a government request. Another 33% (437) were below the range at the government's request. 19% (246) were within the range, and less than 1% (6) were above it.
For this offense type in all districts, 32% were sentenced within the range. For all offenses in the District of Minnesota the figure was 31%.
Pleas and Trials
1,270 of 1,315 people (97%) pleaded guilty, and 45 were convicted after a trial. The median prison term was 86 months after a guilty plea and 190 months after a trial.
Guilty pleas were 98% for this offense type in all districts and 94% for all offenses in this district. Among guilty pleas, 99% had a written plea agreement, and 1% were straight pleas.
Supervision, Fines, and Criminal History
1,277 people (97%) were ordered to serve supervised release, with a median term of 60 months. A fine was ordered for 1 person, and restitution for 8.
33% were in the lowest criminal history category and 23% in the highest. Court-martial records have no criminal history field, so the military data has no matching measure.
Yearly Counts
563 people were sentenced in fiscal years 2016 to 2019, and 752 in fiscal years 2020 to 2025. The fiscal year runs from October 1 through the end of September.
The yearly table shows the highest medians, 110 months, in 2021 and 2022, with 96 and 104 people. The records cannot show whether any change in the yearly medians reflects different cases, different charging, or different sentencing practices.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 152 | 78 months | 97% |
| 2017 | 155 | 82 months | 95% |
| 2018 | 117 | 84 months | 94% |
| 2019 | 139 | 85 months | 97% |
| 2020 | 134 | 85 months | 98% |
| 2021 | 96 | 110 months | 100% |
| 2022 | 104 | 110 months | 94% |
| 2023 | 120 | 101 months | 95% |
| 2024 | 160 | 90 months | 98% |
| 2025 | 138 | 84 months | 96% |
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in the District of Minnesota (U.S. Sentencing Commission district label "Minnesota") in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 whose offense type was "Drug Trafficking" (1,315). Offense types are the Commission's OFFGUIDE categories.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- Federal Sentences in the District of Minnesota, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- Federal Firearms Sentences in the District of Minnesota, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Fraud, Theft, and Embezzlement Sentences in the District of Minnesota, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Robbery Sentences in the District of Minnesota, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Child Pornography Sentences in the District of Minnesota, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.