Federal Sentences in the District of Minnesota, FY2016–2025
Only 31% of federal sentences in the District of Minnesota fell within the guideline range in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, compared with 48% across all districts. Of the 3,630 people sentenced, 39% received a sentence below the range without a government request. The median prison term was 70 months (
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In brief: Only 31% of federal sentences in the District of Minnesota fell within the guideline range in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, compared with 48% across all districts. Of the 3,630 people sentenced, 39% received a sentence below the range without a government request. The median prison term was 70 months (5.8 years), against 24 months nationally.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 3,630 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Most Sentences Fell Outside the Guideline Range
Each federal sentence starts from a guideline range that the Sentencing Guidelines calculate for the case. Judges may sentence within it, below it, or above it. In Minnesota, 1,130 sentences (31%) were within the range.
The largest group, 1,420 sentences (39%), was below the range without any request from the government. Another 986 (27%) were below the range at the government's request. Above-range sentences were rare, at 84 (2%).
These shares cover the 3,620 people whose records include the guideline information. They show where each sentence fell, not what arguments the court heard.
Almost Every Plea Came With a Written Agreement
Guilty pleas accounted for 3,408 of the 3,630 cases, or 94%. The national guilty plea share was 97%, so trials happened more often here: 222 people were convicted after a trial.
Among the guilty pleas, 98% were entered under a written plea agreement. Only 2% were straight pleas, with no agreement.
After a guilty plea, the median prison term was 65 months. After a trial, it was 132 months, based on 217 people convicted at trial and sent to prison. People who chose trial may have faced different charges, so the 2 groups are not directly comparable.
Prison Terms and Mandatory Minimums
Prison was ordered for 3,328 people (92%), close to the 91% national share. 220 people (6%) received probation only, with no prison or other confinement. 4 people received a life sentence.
The middle prison term was 70 months. A quarter of the prison terms were 120 months or longer, and a quarter were 30 months or shorter. All of these are terms imposed, not time served.
A mandatory minimum prison term, a floor set by statute, applied to 1,534 people (43%).
What Kinds of Cases Were Sentenced?
Drug trafficking was the most common offense type, with 1,315 people (36%) and a median prison term of 87 months. Firearms followed with 640 (18%) and a 70-month median.
Fraud, theft, and embezzlement made up 561 cases (15%), with a 24-month median. Robbery (170) and child pornography (images of child exploitation, 165) each accounted for 5%. Child pornography cases had a 120-month median, and the 152 sexual abuse cases had a 240-month median.
Tax cases appear in the table too: 101 people, with a 24-month median.
| Offense type | People sentenced | Share of district | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drug Trafficking | 1,315 | 36% | 87 months | 97% |
| Firearms | 640 | 18% | 70 months | 94% |
| Fraud/Theft/Embezzlement | 561 | 15% | 24 months | 94% |
| Robbery | 170 | 5% | 93.5 months | 92% |
| Child Pornography | 165 | 5% | 120 months | 92% |
| Immigration | 160 | 4% | 12 months | 98% |
| Sexual Abuse | 152 | 4% | 240 months | 88% |
| Tax | 101 | 3% | 24 months | 92% |
Restitution, Fines, and Supervision
Restitution was ordered for 1,145 people, or 32%. Fines were ordered for only 58 (2%).
Supervised release after prison was ordered for 3,208 people (88%), with a median term of 36 months. 51 people (1%) received supervised release for life.
Criminal history shares were 38% in category I, the lowest, and 21% in category VI, the highest.
Counts by Fiscal Year
Minnesota sentenced 1,584 people in fiscal years 2016 to 2019 and 2,046 in fiscal years 2020 to 2025. The yearly table lists the count, the median prison term, and the guilty plea share for each year. The yearly median ranged from 60 months to 77.5 months.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 494 | 60 months | 93% |
| 2017 | 413 | 65 months | 94% |
| 2018 | 295 | 71 months | 93% |
| 2019 | 382 | 72 months | 93% |
| 2020 | 334 | 72 months | 95% |
| 2021 | 258 | 72 months | 97% |
| 2022 | 325 | 77.5 months | 92% |
| 2023 | 353 | 75 months | 96% |
| 2024 | 380 | 72 months | 95% |
| 2025 | 396 | 60 months | 93% |
What the Sentencing Records Cannot Show
The data includes only people who were convicted and sentenced. Acquittals and dismissals do not appear. The records also cannot show why a judge went below the range in any case, or whether similar cases were treated alike.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in the District of Minnesota (U.S. Sentencing Commission district label "Minnesota") in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 (3,630). Offense types are the Commission's OFFGUIDE categories.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- How Often Federal Judges Sentence Outside the Guideline Range
- Mandatory Minimums: How Many Federal Sentences Are Set by Congress
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.