Acquittal Rates: Federal Trials vs. Contested Air Force Courts-Martial, 2016–2025
In the Air Force, 530 of 1,234 contested courts-martial with a verdict ended in a full acquittal (43%), over 2016 to 2025. Federal trials in the same fiscal years ended in an acquittal in 2,534 of 16,849 cases (15%). The Air Force figure counts contested cases and the federal figure counts trials, s
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In brief: In the Air Force, 530 of 1,234 contested courts-martial with a verdict ended in a full acquittal (43%), over 2016 to 2025. Federal trials in the same fiscal years ended in an acquittal in 2,534 of 16,849 cases (15%). The Air Force figure counts contested cases and the federal figure counts trials, so the figures are not the same measure.
This post uses the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, compared with court-martial results from this site's Military Trial Results data (updated November 2, 2026). The series also draws on the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 659,036 people sentenced in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Air Force Full Acquittals, 2016 to 2025
The Air Force records cover the whole span, 2016 to 2025. They list 1,234 contested courts-martial that reached a verdict. A contested case is one where the accused pleaded not guilty, at least in part.
There were 530 full acquittals (43%). Another 148 cases (12%) were partial acquittals, meaning not guilty of at least one charge but guilty of another.
Air Force records rarely list the charges in acquittals. For that reason, this post reports Air Force acquittals for all cases together and never by offense.
Forum Results: Judge or Members
Cases decided by a judge alone numbered 163, with 70 full acquittals (43%). Cases tried by members numbered 1,071, with 460 full acquittals (43%). The rate was the same in both forums.
Members cases split by the type of panel. Enlisted members heard 561 cases and acquitted fully in 309 (55%). Officer members heard 510 cases and acquitted fully in 151 (30%).
The records do not explain the difference between the enlisted and officer panels.
Federal Trial Results for the Same Fiscal Years
The Federal Judicial Center counted 753,808 defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Guilty pleas accounted for 678,652 (90%), and dismissals for 58,307 (8%). The remaining 16,849 (2%) went to trial.
Within those trials, 2,534 ended in an acquittal (15%). The 14,615 jury trials produced 1,838 acquittals (13%). The 2,234 bench trials, decided by a judge, produced 696 acquittals (31%).
In all, 692,967 defendants (92%) were convicted.
Year by Year
The Air Force rate was 31% in 2016 and 58% in 2020, and it was 45% in 2025. The federal trial acquittal rate stayed between 12% and 18% in each year of the table.
The Air Force counts also changed in size. The yearly totals ranged from 71 cases in 2025 to 173 cases in 2018, so a single year rests on a limited number of cases.
| Year | Air Force: full acquittals of contested cases | Federal: acquittals of trials |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 35 of 113 (31%) | 291 of 1,853 (16%) |
| 2017 | 54 of 155 (35%) | 276 of 1,874 (15%) |
| 2018 | 62 of 173 (36%) | 320 of 1,879 (17%) |
| 2019 | 55 of 146 (38%) | 287 of 1,950 (15%) |
| 2020 | 62 of 107 (58%) | 199 of 1,425 (14%) |
| 2021 | 65 of 137 (47%) | 196 of 1,081 (18%) |
| 2022 | 56 of 124 (45%) | 290 of 1,669 (17%) |
| 2023 | 67 of 120 (56%) | 263 of 1,840 (14%) |
| 2024 | 42 of 88 (48%) | 220 of 1,723 (13%) |
| 2025 | 32 of 71 (45%) | 192 of 1,555 (12%) |
Why These Numbers Cannot Be Subtracted
A federal case reaches trial only after a grand jury indictment for a felony. A court-martial has no grand jury, and an Article 32 hearing officer only makes recommendations. The systems therefore send different cases to a verdict.
The federal data also counts every defendant whose case ended, including dismissals. The Air Force data starts at contested cases with a verdict. Partial acquittals appear in the Air Force records but not in the federal ones.
What the Records Leave Out
The records do not show the reasons for any single result. They do not show how strong the evidence was or how many accused people pleaded guilty before trial. The comparison reports counts only, and it cannot say that one system acquits more often for the same conduct.
How We Counted
Air Force: contested courts-martial (not-guilty or mixed plea) with a verdict and a trial date in 2016 to 2025 (1,234). Federal: every defendant whose case ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 (753,808; 16,849 trials), Federal Judicial Center, counted as in Table D-4.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
Who is in each set of numbers. The federal sentencing numbers come from the U.S. Sentencing Commission. They count only people who were convicted and sentenced in federal district court. People whose cases were dismissed or who were acquitted are not in them. The military numbers come from court-martial results, which include acquittals. To compare acquittal or dismissal rates, the federal side uses a different source: the Federal Judicial Center's case data, which counts every defendant whose case ended.
Different cases reach each system. Federal prosecutors bring a narrow set of cases. In fiscal year 2024, immigration and drug trafficking cases were 59% of everyone sentenced in federal court (36,664 of 61,678). Many crimes that the military prosecutes, such as most assaults, most sexual assaults between adults, and drug use, are usually state crimes for civilians and reach federal court only in special situations, such as on federal land or in Indian Country. A federal case and a court-martial for the same crime can involve different kinds of facts.
How "plea" and "trial" are counted. In the federal sentencing numbers, "trial" means the person was convicted after a trial, including people who pleaded guilty to some counts and went to trial on others. People acquitted at trial are not in these numbers at all (see "Who is in each set of numbers"). In the federal case data, the trial rate counts both convictions and acquittals at trial among all defendants whose cases ended, including dismissed cases. Military numbers count contested cases that reached a verdict. These denominators are not the same, and each post states the one it uses.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- Are Courts-Martial More Likely to End in Acquittal Than Federal Trials? (overview)
- Acquittal Rates: Federal Trials vs. Contested Army Courts-Martial, 2016–2025
- Acquittal Rates: Federal Trials vs. Contested Navy Courts-Martial, 2016–2025
- Acquittal Rates: Federal Trials vs. Contested Marine Corps Courts-Martial, 2016–2025
- Air Force Courts-Martial: Data and Trends (court-martial data)
- Forum Selection (law firm reference page)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.