Theft and Fraud: Federal Sentences vs. Air Force Courts-Martial, 2016–2025
Air Force courts-martial produced 122 convictions for larceny, theft, and fraud (Article 121) with trial dates from 2016 to 2025. The median adjudged confinement was 3.6 months, and 79% of convictions included confinement. In federal court, the median prison term for people sent to prison under guid
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In brief: Air Force courts-martial produced 122 convictions for larceny, theft, and fraud (Article 121) with trial dates from 2016 to 2025. The median adjudged confinement was 3.6 months, and 79% of convictions included confinement. In federal court, the median prison term for people sent to prison under guideline §2B1.1 was 21 months, and 73% of the 53,639 people sentenced received prison.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 53,639 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, compared with court-martial results from this site's Military Trial Results data (updated November 2, 2026). Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Air Force Sentences in These Cases
Confinement was adjudged in 96 of the 122 Air Force convictions, or 79%. The median was 3.6 months. A quarter of the sentences were 6.9 months or more.
Of the 113 enlisted airmen convicted, 65 received a punitive discharge (58%). That total includes 10 dishonorable discharges and 55 bad-conduct discharges.
Officers made up 9 of the convictions, and 5 of them were dismissed. In all, 50 of the 122 convictions (41%) went to a general court-martial.
| Air Force courts-martial | Federal court, FY2016–FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|
| Convictions or people sentenced | 122 | 53,639 |
| Sentenced to confinement or prison | 79% | 73% |
| Median confinement or prison | 3.6 months | 21 months |
| A quarter received this or more | 6.9 months | 40 months |
| Pleaded guilty | 36 of 66 with a plea recorded (55%) | 96% |
| Mandatory minimum applied | See the caveats | 11% |
Did Sentences Change Between Periods?
For trials in 2016 to 2019, the median confinement was 3.9 months, based on 57 cases with confinement. For trials in 2020 to 2025, it was 2.6 months, based on 39 cases.
The later median is lower. The records do not show why, and the case counts are small enough that a few sentences could move either figure.
Why the Plea Numbers Need Care
Only 66 of the 122 convictions have a plea recorded. Of those, 36 (55%) were guilty pleas.
Air Force plea information is missing for most trials before 2020. The 55% figure therefore describes the cases that were recorded and may not describe the rest.
After a guilty plea, the median confinement was 3 months in 31 cases with confinement. In contested cases that ended in conviction, it was 2.5 months in 18 cases with confinement.
Federal Court Under the Same Guideline
The U.S. Sentencing Commission counts 53,639 people sentenced under §2B1.1 in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. This guideline covers theft, embezzlement, fraud, and property damage.
A prison term went to 39,373 of them, and 10,874 (20%) were placed on probation with no confinement. Among those in prison, a quarter received 40 months or more and a quarter received 7 months or less.
Nearly all federal defendants in this group pleaded guilty: 51,323, or 96%. The median prison term was 20 months after a plea and 48 months after a trial.
Federal Features With No Court-Martial Counterpart
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 11% of federal defendants. Court-martial records for this offense do not report that measure.
The federal data also compares each sentence with the guideline range. A within-range sentence was imposed on 42%, a sentence below the range at the government's request on 25%, and a sentence below the range without that request on 30%. Only 3% were above the range.
Among federal guilty pleas, 90% had a written plea agreement.
How the Air Force Compares With the Other Services
The Army's median confinement was 3 months, the Navy's was 6 months, and the Marine Corps' was 6.7 months. The Air Force figure of 3.6 months is lower than the Navy and Marine Corps figures.
Its punitive discharge rate for enlisted convicts, 58%, falls between the Army's 67% and the Navy's 49%.
| Service | Convictions, 2016–2025 | With confinement | Median confinement | Punitive discharge (enlisted) | Guilty pleas (where recorded) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Army | 157 | 81% | 3 months | 67% | 87% |
| Air Force | 122 | 79% | 3.6 months | 58% | 55% |
| Navy | 158 | 76% | 6 months | 49% | 88% |
| Marine Corps | 189 | 86% | 6.7 months | 75% | 88% |
Limits of This Comparison
Court-martial sentences are the sentences adjudged at trial, before any clemency or appeal. Federal prison terms are those imposed, not time served.
Court-martial records have no criminal history field, so the 71% of federal defendants in the lowest criminal history category has no counterpart here. Neither data set shows the dollar amount at issue, which usually matters in theft and fraud sentencing.
How We Counted
Air Force courts-martial with trial dates in 2016 to 2025 ending in a conviction for larceny, theft, and fraud (Article 121; federal guideline §2B1.1) (122). Federal: 53,639 people sentenced under primary guideline §2B1.1 (theft, embezzlement, fraud, and property damage), fiscal years 2016 to 2025 (U.S. Sentencing Commission).
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
Who is in each set of numbers. The federal sentencing numbers come from the U.S. Sentencing Commission. They count only people who were convicted and sentenced in federal district court. People whose cases were dismissed or who were acquitted are not in them. The military numbers come from court-martial results, which include acquittals. To compare acquittal or dismissal rates, the federal side uses a different source: the Federal Judicial Center's case data, which counts every defendant whose case ended.
Different cases reach each system. Federal prosecutors bring a narrow set of cases. In fiscal year 2024, immigration and drug trafficking cases were 59% of everyone sentenced in federal court (36,664 of 61,678). Many crimes that the military prosecutes, such as most assaults, most sexual assaults between adults, and drug use, are usually state crimes for civilians and reach federal court only in special situations, such as on federal land or in Indian Country. A federal case and a court-martial for the same crime can involve different kinds of facts.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
Offense categories do not line up exactly. Each comparison uses a federal offense group chosen to match the military article as closely as possible (see the crosswalk). Some matches are close; others are partial. The post says which federal guideline or statute was used and why it is not an exact match.
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Military confinement credit and parole. For military sentences adjudged after 2004, good conduct time is 5 days for each month of confinement, about 16%. Military prisoners can also earn up to 8 more days a month for work and programs and up to 2 days a month for special acts, with a limit of 15 days a month in total. Military prisoners can be considered for parole by their service's clemency and parole board. The military numbers in this post are the confinement adjudged at trial, not the time served.
Military sentences include punishments federal sentences do not. A court-martial sentence can include a punitive discharge (bad-conduct discharge, dishonorable discharge, or dismissal for officers), reduction in rank, and forfeiture of pay. These have no federal counterpart. A comparison of months of confinement leaves them out. A short confinement term combined with a dishonorable discharge is a heavier sentence than the months alone show.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- Theft and Fraud by Dollar Loss: Federal Sentences vs. Article 121 Courts-Martial (overview)
- Theft and Fraud: Federal Sentences vs. Army Courts-Martial
- Theft and Fraud: Federal Sentences vs. Marine Corps Courts-Martial
- Theft and Fraud: Federal Sentences vs. Navy Courts-Martial, 2016–2025
- Theft and Fraud Sentences Since the 2023 Military Sentencing Reform: What the Data Shows So Far
- Theft and Fraud Charges: Federal Trial Acquittals vs. Contested Army Courts-Martial
- Theft and Fraud Charges: How Often Federal Trials and Courts-Martial End in Acquittal
- Are Courts-Martial More Likely to End in Acquittal Than Federal Trials? (related comparison)
- Guilty Pleas in Federal Court vs. Courts-Martial, Year by Year (related comparison)
- Child Pornography Sentences: Federal Court vs. Courts-Martial, 2016–2025 (related comparison)
- Federal Law Has No Crime of Drug Use: How Article 112a Cases Compare (related comparison)
- Drug Distribution and Importation: Federal vs. Court-Martial Sentences, 2016–2025 (related comparison)
- Sexual Abuse of an Adult: Federal Cases vs. Article 120 Courts-Martial (related comparison)
- Child Sexual Abuse and Enticement: Federal Cases vs. Article 120b Courts-Martial (related comparison)
- Air Force Article 121 Cases by the Numbers, 2016–2025 (court-martial data)
- What Sentence Follows an Air Force Larceny Conviction? (court-martial data)
- Pleading Guilty to Article 121 in the Air Force: What Sentences Followed? (court-martial data)
- Article 121 (Larceny): Court-Martial Data and Trends (court-martial data)
- Air Force Courts-Martial: Data and Trends (court-martial data)
- Article 121 UCMJ: Larceny and Wrongful Appropriation (law firm reference page)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.