Federal Theft and Fraud Sentences With a Loss Over $3.5 Million, FY2016–2025
The 3,842 people sentenced in federal court for theft or fraud with a loss over $3.5 million had a median prison term of 54 months (4.5 years). Prison went to 3,617 (94%). This is the highest dollar band in fiscal years 2016 to 2025.
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Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › Theft and Fraud by Dollar Loss › Loss: over $3.5 million
In brief: The 3,842 people sentenced in federal court for theft or fraud with a loss over $3.5 million had a median prison term of 54 months (4.5 years). Prison went to 3,617 (94%). This is the highest dollar band in fiscal years 2016 to 2025.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 3,842 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, compared with court-martial results from this site's Military Trial Results data (updated November 2, 2026). Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
How Long Were Prison Terms for Losses Over $3.5 Million?
The median prison term was 54 months (4.5 years) among the 3,617 people sent to prison (94%). A quarter received 87 months or more, and a quarter received 30 months or less.
Probation only went to 152 people (4%). Across all §2B1.1 cases the median was 21 months, and 73% were sent to prison.
The 3,617 sentenced to prison are the group the median describes. The 4% with probation only are not part of that median. The 152 people with probation only received no prison term, so no prison length is recorded for them.
How Often Did Cases End in a Trial Conviction?
Of the 3,842 people, 3,363 (88%) pleaded guilty and 479 were convicted after a trial.
The median prison term after a guilty plea was 48 months. After a trial it was 96 months, based on 476 people.
A plea agreement is a written deal with the prosecutor. Most federal agreements do not bind the judge on the sentence, so the median after a plea still reflects the judge's decision.
Were Sentences Within the Guideline Range?
Rarely. Among 3,839 people with the information, 22% (831) were within the range. Below the range at the government's request was 42% (1,603), and below it without a government request was 35% (1,343). Above was 2% (62).
The government's request is recorded, but the reasons are not.
Sentences below the range at the government's request were the largest group in this band. A sentence below the range without such a request is a decision by the judge.
What Other Terms Applied?
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 291 people (8%). Supervised release after prison was ordered for 3,528 (92%), with a median term of 36 months.
Restitution was ordered for 3,443 (90%) and a fine for 261 (7%). Written plea agreements covered 93% of guilty pleas, and 7% had none.
What Was the Criminal History?
In the criminal history data, 84% were in the lowest category and 1% in the highest. Court-martial records have no criminal history field.
How Did the Years Differ?
The count was lowest in fiscal year 2020 at 265 and highest in fiscal year 2024 at 452. The median prison term was 60 months in fiscal years 2016, 2018, and 2019, and 48 months in fiscal years 2021, 2024, and 2025.
The plea rate also changed, from 85% in fiscal year 2016 to 92% in fiscal year 2024.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 401 | 60 months | 85% |
| 2017 | 449 | 57 months | 86% |
| 2018 | 390 | 60 months | 85% |
| 2019 | 369 | 60 months | 86% |
| 2020 | 265 | 57 months | 85% |
| 2021 | 311 | 48 months | 92% |
| 2022 | 391 | 54 months | 87% |
| 2023 | 371 | 51.5 months | 89% |
| 2024 | 452 | 48 months | 92% |
| 2025 | 443 | 48 months | 90% |
What Cannot Be Concluded?
Court-martial larceny records rarely list the value, so no court-martial group can be set beside this band. The data count only convicted people. They do not show the kind of scheme behind a loss over $3.5 million, or whether the amount was proven at trial or agreed in a plea.
How We Counted
People sentenced in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 under guideline §2B1.1 whose recorded dollar loss falls in the band "over $3.5 million" (3,842), U.S. Sentencing Commission (LOSSHI). "Loss not specified" means the records show a loss with no amount.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
Different cases reach each system. Federal prosecutors bring a narrow set of cases. In fiscal year 2024, immigration and drug trafficking cases were 59% of everyone sentenced in federal court (36,664 of 61,678). Many crimes that the military prosecutes, such as most assaults, most sexual assaults between adults, and drug use, are usually state crimes for civilians and reach federal court only in special situations, such as on federal land or in Indian Country. A federal case and a court-martial for the same crime can involve different kinds of facts.
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Offense categories do not line up exactly. Each comparison uses a federal offense group chosen to match the military article as closely as possible (see the crosswalk). Some matches are close; others are partial. The post says which federal guideline or statute was used and why it is not an exact match.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- Theft and Fraud by Dollar Loss: Federal Sentences vs. Article 121 Courts-Martial (overview)
- Federal Theft and Fraud Sentences With No Dollar Loss, FY2016–2025
- Federal Theft and Fraud Sentences With a Loss of $1,000 or Less, FY2016–2025
- Federal Theft and Fraud Sentences With a Loss of $1,001 to $15,000, FY2016–2025
- Federal Theft and Fraud Sentences With a Loss of $15,001 to $95,000, FY2016–2025
- Federal Theft and Fraud Sentences With a Loss of $95,001 to $550,000, FY2016–2025
- Federal Theft and Fraud Sentences With a Loss of $550,001 to $3.5 Million, FY2016–2025
- Federal Theft and Fraud Sentences With the Loss Amount Not Specified, FY2016–2025
- Army Article 121 Cases by the Numbers, 2021–2025 (court-martial data)
- Article 121 Sentences in the Army: Confinement and Discharges, 2021–2025 (court-martial data)
- Fighting an Army Larceny Charge: How Contested Cases Ended (court-martial data)
- Guilty Pleas in Army Larceny Cases: How Often, and What Came Next (court-martial data)
- Air Force Article 121 Cases by the Numbers, 2016–2025 (court-martial data)
- What Sentence Follows an Air Force Larceny Conviction? (court-martial data)
- Pleading Guilty to Article 121 in the Air Force: What Sentences Followed? (court-martial data)
- How Has Article 121 Changed in Navy-Marine Corps Courts-Martial Since 2017? (court-martial data)
- Article 121 Sentences in the Navy-Marine Corps: Confinement and Discharges, 2017–2025 (court-martial data)
- Not Guilty Pleas in Navy-Marine Corps Article 121 Cases: What Happened at Trial (court-martial data)
- Guilty Pleas in Navy-Marine Corps Larceny Cases: How Often, and What Came Next (court-martial data)
- Article 121 (Larceny): Court-Martial Data and Trends (court-martial data)
- Article 121 UCMJ: Larceny and Wrongful Appropriation (law firm reference page)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.