Guilty Pleas in Theft and Fraud Cases: Federal Court vs. Courts-Martial
In courts-martial charging larceny, theft, and fraud (Article 121), 462 of 561 cases with a plea recorded were guilty pleas (82%). In federal court, 96% of the 53,639 people sentenced under guideline §2B1.1 pleaded guilty. A separate count of federal defendants charged with theft of government prope
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In brief: In courts-martial charging larceny, theft, and fraud (Article 121), 462 of 561 cases with a plea recorded were guilty pleas (82%). In federal court, 96% of the 53,639 people sentenced under guideline §2B1.1 pleaded guilty. A separate count of federal defendants charged with theft of government property shows a lower rate, 67%, because it includes cases that were dismissed.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 53,639 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 and the Federal Judicial Center's records of 9,190 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, compared with court-martial results from this site's Military Trial Results data (updated November 2, 2026). It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
What Pleas Were Entered in Courts-Martial?
The court-martial records show a plea for 561 courts-martial with trial dates from 2016 to 2025. Of those, 462 (82%) were guilty pleas, 34 (6%) were mixed pleas, and 65 (12%) were not-guilty pleas.
A mixed plea means guilty to some charges and not guilty to others. A court-martial with a not-guilty or mixed plea is called contested.
Another 81 courts-martial for this offense have no plea recorded. They are left out of the percentages.
Plea Agreements
The records show whether there was a plea agreement for 402 guilty pleas. Of those, 391 (97%) had an agreement.
Plea agreement records come mostly from the Army, Navy, and Marine Corps. The 97% figure therefore says little about the Air Force.
In federal court, 90% of guilty pleas had a written plea agreement, and 9% were straight pleas with no agreement.
The Federal Plea Rate
The U.S. Sentencing Commission counts people who were sentenced, so every person in its data was convicted. Of 53,639 people sentenced in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, 51,323 pleaded guilty and 2,316 were convicted at trial.
This 96% rate is measured among convictions. It does not show how many federal charges ended without a conviction.
Counting Dismissals Changes the Rate
The Federal Judicial Center counts every defendant whose case ended, whatever the result. For 9,190 defendants charged under 18 U.S.C. 641, theft of government property, 6,127 (67%) pleaded guilty and 2,899 (32%) had their cases dismissed.
Only 164 (2%) went to trial. In all, 6,253 of the 9,190 (68%) were convicted by plea or at trial.
The 67% rate is lower than the 96% rate because it uses a larger group. It is not evidence that federal defendants pleaded guilty less often in one data set than in the other.
Guilty Pleas by Service
The Marine Corps had the highest share of guilty pleas, 88%, followed by the Navy at 87% and the Army at 85%. The Air Force share was 52%.
Air Force plea information is missing for most trials before 2020, so that figure rests on fewer cases (69 with a plea recorded).
| Service | Cases with a plea recorded | Guilty pleas | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Army | 162 | 137 | 85% |
| Air Force | 69 | 36 | 52% |
| Navy | 158 | 138 | 87% |
| Marine Corps | 172 | 151 | 88% |
Guilty Pleas Year by Year
The court-martial share ranged from 74% in 2016 to 92% in 2018, and it was 76% in 2025. The federal rate stayed between 95% and 98%.
Yearly court-martial counts are small, from 34 cases in 2016 to 83 in 2021, so single years should be read with care.
| Year | Courts-martial: guilty pleas | Federal: pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 25 of 34 (74%) | 95% |
| 2017 | 40 of 44 (91%) | 95% |
| 2018 | 46 of 50 (92%) | 95% |
| 2019 | 42 of 49 (86%) | 95% |
| 2020 | 32 of 37 (86%) | 96% |
| 2021 | 64 of 83 (77%) | 98% |
| 2022 | 53 of 67 (79%) | 96% |
| 2023 | 49 of 62 (79%) | 95% |
| 2024 | 67 of 77 (87%) | 96% |
| 2025 | 44 of 58 (76%) | 96% |
What the Comparison Cannot Show
The court-martial figures count all courts-martial charging the offense that have a plea recorded, including some that did not end in conviction. The federal sentencing figure counts only people who were convicted.
Neither data set shows what prosecutors offered or what defendants were told about sentencing. The records also cannot show why plea rates differ between the systems.
How We Counted
Courts-martial: every court-martial charging larceny, theft, and fraud (Article 121; federal guideline §2B1.1) with a trial date in 2016 to 2025 and a plea recorded (561). Federal: people sentenced under primary guideline §2B1.1 (theft, embezzlement, fraud, and property damage) (53,639, U.S. Sentencing Commission) and defendants charged under 18 U.S.C. 641 (theft of government property) whose cases ended (9,190, Federal Judicial Center), fiscal years 2016 to 2025.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
Who is in each set of numbers. The federal sentencing numbers come from the U.S. Sentencing Commission. They count only people who were convicted and sentenced in federal district court. People whose cases were dismissed or who were acquitted are not in them. The military numbers come from court-martial results, which include acquittals. To compare acquittal or dismissal rates, the federal side uses a different source: the Federal Judicial Center's case data, which counts every defendant whose case ended.
Different cases reach each system. Federal prosecutors bring a narrow set of cases. In fiscal year 2024, immigration and drug trafficking cases were 59% of everyone sentenced in federal court (36,664 of 61,678). Many crimes that the military prosecutes, such as most assaults, most sexual assaults between adults, and drug use, are usually state crimes for civilians and reach federal court only in special situations, such as on federal land or in Indian Country. A federal case and a court-martial for the same crime can involve different kinds of facts.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
Offense categories do not line up exactly. Each comparison uses a federal offense group chosen to match the military article as closely as possible (see the crosswalk). Some matches are close; others are partial. The post says which federal guideline or statute was used and why it is not an exact match.
Plea agreements work differently. In federal court, most plea agreements do not bind the judge on the sentence. Since 2019, a military plea agreement can set a minimum and maximum sentence that the military judge must follow if the judge accepts the agreement. The federal numbers count anyone who pleaded guilty, with or without a written agreement.
How "plea" and "trial" are counted. In the federal sentencing numbers, "trial" means the person was convicted after a trial, including people who pleaded guilty to some counts and went to trial on others. People acquitted at trial are not in these numbers at all (see "Who is in each set of numbers"). In the federal case data, the trial rate counts both convictions and acquittals at trial among all defendants whose cases ended, including dismissed cases. Military numbers count contested cases that reached a verdict. These denominators are not the same, and each post states the one it uses.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- Theft and Fraud by Dollar Loss: Federal Sentences vs. Article 121 Courts-Martial (overview)
- Theft and Fraud Sentences Since the 2023 Military Sentencing Reform: What the Data Shows So Far
- Theft and Fraud Charges: Federal Trial Acquittals vs. Contested Army Courts-Martial
- Theft and Fraud Charges: How Often Federal Trials and Courts-Martial End in Acquittal
- Theft and Fraud Charges: Federal Trial Acquittals vs. Contested Marine Corps Courts-Martial
- Theft and Fraud Charges: Federal Trial Acquittals vs. Contested Navy Courts-Martial
- Theft and Fraud Convictions of Junior Enlisted (E-1 to E-4): Courts-Martial Compared With Federal Court
- Are Courts-Martial More Likely to End in Acquittal Than Federal Trials? (related comparison)
- Guilty Pleas in Federal Court vs. Courts-Martial, Year by Year (related comparison)
- Child Pornography Sentences: Federal Court vs. Courts-Martial, 2016–2025 (related comparison)
- Federal Law Has No Crime of Drug Use: How Article 112a Cases Compare (related comparison)
- Drug Distribution and Importation: Federal vs. Court-Martial Sentences, 2016–2025 (related comparison)
- Sexual Abuse of an Adult: Federal Cases vs. Article 120 Courts-Martial (related comparison)
- Child Sexual Abuse and Enticement: Federal Cases vs. Article 120b Courts-Martial (related comparison)
- Army Article 121 Cases by the Numbers, 2021–2025 (court-martial data)
- Article 121 Sentences in the Army: Confinement and Discharges, 2021–2025 (court-martial data)
- Fighting an Army Larceny Charge: How Contested Cases Ended (court-martial data)
- Guilty Pleas in Army Larceny Cases: How Often, and What Came Next (court-martial data)
- Air Force Article 121 Cases by the Numbers, 2016–2025 (court-martial data)
- What Sentence Follows an Air Force Larceny Conviction? (court-martial data)
- Pleading Guilty to Article 121 in the Air Force: What Sentences Followed? (court-martial data)
- How Has Article 121 Changed in Navy-Marine Corps Courts-Martial Since 2017? (court-martial data)
- Article 121 Sentences in the Navy-Marine Corps: Confinement and Discharges, 2017–2025 (court-martial data)
- Not Guilty Pleas in Navy-Marine Corps Article 121 Cases: What Happened at Trial (court-martial data)
- Guilty Pleas in Navy-Marine Corps Larceny Cases: How Often, and What Came Next (court-martial data)
- Article 121 (Larceny): Court-Martial Data and Trends (court-martial data)
- Article 121 UCMJ: Larceny and Wrongful Appropriation (law firm reference page)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.