> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bodiesburied.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Does Going to Trial Mean a Longer Sentence? Plea vs. Trial in Federal Court and Courts-Martial - URL: https://www.bodiesburied.com/trends/federal-plea-vs-trial-sentences-vs-courts-martial/ - Published: 2026-11-03T01:37:52.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-03T01:37:52.000Z - Description: In federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, the median prison term was 24 months after a guilty plea and 120 months after a trial. In courts-martial, the median confinement was 5.9 months after a guilty plea and 9 months in contested cases ending in conviction. The difference in medians is not a - Author: Jocelyn C. Stewart - Tags: Understanding Trends, Federal [Trends](https://www.bodiesburied.com/trends/) › [Federal Prosecution Analysis](https://www.bodiesburied.com/trends/federal/) › Plea vs. Trial Sentences **In brief:** In federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, the median prison term was 24 months after a guilty plea and 120 months after a trial. In courts-martial, the median confinement was 5.9 months after a guilty plea and 9 months in contested cases ending in conviction. The difference in medians is not a measure of a penalty for going to trial. Updated November 2, 2026 · Sources: U.S. Sentencing Commission and Federal Judicial Center, fiscal years 2016–2025 · Military Trial Results This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 659,036 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, compared with court-martial results from this site's Military Trial Results data (updated November 2, 2026). Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025\. It is part of the [Federal Prosecution Analysis](https://www.bodiesburied.com/trends/federal/) series, which builds on [Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System](https://www.bodiesburied.com/trends/military-sentencing-guidelines-federal-system/). How the numbers were built: [How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built](https://www.bodiesburied.com/trends/federal-data-methodology/). ## Federal Medians After a Plea and After a Trial The U.S. Sentencing Commission data covers everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, which is 659,036 people. Trial here means convicted after a trial on at least one count. Among those sent to prison, the median prison term after a guilty plea was 24 months. After a trial it was 120 months, based on 15,914 people convicted at trial and sent to prison. The trial median was higher than the plea median in every federal offense type in the table below, including the group labeled Other. | Federal offense type | People | Trial convictions | Median prison after plea | Median prison after trial | | ------------------------ | ------- | ----------------- | ------------------------ | ------------------------- | | Immigration | 217,838 | 878 | 6.9 months | 21 months | | Drug Trafficking | 185,188 | 4,136 | 60 months | 180 months | | Firearms | 78,851 | 2,208 | 41 months | 87 months | | Fraud/Theft/Embezzlement | 58,502 | 2,387 | 18 months | 48 months | | Robbery | 14,845 | 789 | 87 months | 204 months | | Child Pornography | 13,674 | 422 | 87 months | 170 months | | Money Laundering | 12,171 | 854 | 37 months | 97 months | | Sexual Abuse | 12,095 | 1,174 | 180 months | 300 months | | Other | 9,918 | 164 | 0.2 months | 6.3 months | | Assault | 7,573 | 524 | 41 months | 120 months | ## Medians by Federal Offense Type In drug trafficking, the median prison term was 60 months after a plea and 180 months after a trial, with 4,136 trial convictions among 185,188 people. In fraud, theft, and embezzlement, it was 18 months after a plea and 48 months after a trial. For firearms, the medians were 41 months and 87 months. For immigration, they were 6.9 months and 21 months. For robbery, they were 87 months and 204 months. For child pornography (images of child exploitation), the median was 87 months after a plea and 170 months after a trial. For sexual abuse, it was 180 months after a plea and 300 months after a trial. For money laundering, it was 37 months and 97 months. In the group labeled Other, which has 9,918 people, the median was 0.2 months after a plea and 6.3 months after a trial. For assault, with 7,573 people, the median was 41 months after a plea and 120 months after a trial. ## What Courts-Martial Show Court-martial records list convictions with trial dates from 2016 to 2025\. The median confinement after a guilty plea was 5.9 months, based on 4,428 cases with confinement. In contested cases ending in conviction, the median confinement was 9 months, based on 1,222 cases with confinement. A court-martial is contested when the accused pleads not guilty to at least one charge, which includes a not-guilty plea and a mixed plea. The court-martial medians are lower than the federal medians after both a plea and a contested case. The units differ, though: the federal figure counts prison terms, and the court-martial figure counts adjudged confinement. ## Why the Difference in Medians Is Not a Trial Penalty Cases that go to trial can differ from cases that end in a plea in their facts and charges. A median taken after a trial reflects those differences as well as any effect of the plea. The records here compare groups of people. They do not follow the same case through both paths, so they cannot show what a sentence would have been after a different plea. The records also cannot show whether any plea followed an agreement with the prosecution. ## How the Counts Differ The federal figure counts the terms imposed, not time served. Court-martial sentences are as adjudged at trial, before any clemency or appeal. Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to the end of September, and the court-martial numbers are by trial date. The federal data counts only people who were convicted and sentenced. Acquittals and dismissals are not in it. The court-martial medians use only cases with confinement adjudged, and the federal medians use only people sent to prison. ## What the Records Cannot Show The records cannot show whether any difference between plea and trial sentences comes from the choice of plea, the facts of the case, or the charges. They cannot show how a given case would have ended had it gone the other way. This comparison also does not break the court-martial side down by offense type, so the federal offense-level medians have no matching court-martial figure. Immigration, for example, is a federal offense group with 217,838 people, and it has no matching court-martial offense here. ### How We Counted Federal: everyone sentenced in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 (659,036), U.S. Sentencing Commission; trial means convicted after a trial on at least one count. Courts-martial: convictions with trial dates in 2016 to 2025, guilty pleas compared with contested cases; medians use cases with confinement adjudged. Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30\. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records. ### What to Keep in Mind **Who is in each set of numbers.** The federal sentencing numbers come from the U.S. Sentencing Commission. They count only people who were convicted and sentenced in federal district court. People whose cases were dismissed or who were acquitted are not in them. The military numbers come from court-martial results, which include acquittals. To compare acquittal or dismissal rates, the federal side uses a different source: the Federal Judicial Center's case data, which counts every defendant whose case ended. **No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct.** Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987\. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served. **Military confinement credit and parole.** For military sentences adjudged after 2004, good conduct time is 5 days for each month of confinement, about 16%. Military prisoners can also earn up to 8 more days a month for work and programs and up to 2 days a month for special acts, with a limit of 15 days a month in total. Military prisoners can be considered for parole by their service's clemency and parole board. The military numbers in this post are the confinement adjudged at trial, not the time served. **Military sentences include punishments federal sentences do not.** A court-martial sentence can include a punitive discharge (bad-conduct discharge, dishonorable discharge, or dismissal for officers), reduction in rank, and forfeiture of pay. These have no federal counterpart. A comparison of months of confinement leaves them out. A short confinement term combined with a dishonorable discharge is a heavier sentence than the months alone show. **Who decides the sentence, and under what rules.** Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart. **Plea agreements work differently.** In federal court, most plea agreements do not bind the judge on the sentence. Since 2019, a military plea agreement can set a minimum and maximum sentence that the military judge must follow if the judge accepts the agreement. The federal numbers count anyone who pleaded guilty, with or without a written agreement. **How "plea" and "trial" are counted.** In the federal sentencing numbers, "trial" means the person was convicted after a trial, including people who pleaded guilty to some counts and went to trial on others. People acquitted at trial are not in these numbers at all (see "Who is in each set of numbers"). In the federal case data, the trial rate counts both convictions and acquittals at trial among all defendants whose cases ended, including dismissed cases. Military numbers count contested cases that reached a verdict. These denominators are not the same, and each post states the one it uses. **Time periods.** Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually. **How life sentences and "time served" are counted.** In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less. ## Related Analysis - [Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System](https://www.bodiesburied.com/trends/military-sentencing-guidelines-federal-system/) (the background article) - [Federal Prosecution Analysis](https://www.bodiesburied.com/trends/federal/) (all federal posts) - [How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built](https://www.bodiesburied.com/trends/federal-data-methodology/) (sources and method) - [Are Courts-Martial More Likely to End in Acquittal Than Federal Trials?](https://www.bodiesburied.com/trends/federal-trial-acquittal-rates-vs-courts-martial/) - [Guilty Pleas in Federal Court vs. Courts-Martial, Year by Year](https://www.bodiesburied.com/trends/federal-guilty-plea-rates-vs-courts-martial/) - [Child Pornography Sentences: Federal Court vs. Courts-Martial, 2016–2025](https://www.bodiesburied.com/trends/federal-child-pornography-sentences-vs-courts-martial/) - [Federal Law Has No Crime of Drug Use: How Article 112a Cases Compare](https://www.bodiesburied.com/trends/federal-no-crime-of-drug-use-article-112a/) - [Drug Distribution and Importation: Federal vs. Court-Martial Sentences, 2016–2025](https://www.bodiesburied.com/trends/federal-drug-distribution-importation-vs-article-112a/) - [Sexual Abuse of an Adult: Federal Cases vs. Article 120 Courts-Martial](https://www.bodiesburied.com/trends/federal-sexual-abuse-adult-vs-article-120/) - [Child Sexual Abuse and Enticement: Federal Cases vs. Article 120b Courts-Martial](https://www.bodiesburied.com/trends/federal-child-sexual-abuse-enticement-vs-article-120b/) - [Theft and Fraud by Dollar Loss: Federal Sentences vs. Article 121 Courts-Martial](https://www.bodiesburied.com/trends/federal-theft-fraud-dollar-loss-vs-article-121/) - [U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles](https://www.ussc.gov/research/datafiles/commission-datafiles?ref=bodiesburied.com) (source) - [Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants)](https://www.fjc.gov/research/idb?ref=bodiesburied.com) (source) **About the author.** Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts *Where All The Bodies Are Buried* and runs the [Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart](https://www.ucmj-defender.com/?ref=bodiesburied.com). This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.