Murder: Sentences After a Guilty Plea vs. After Trial, Federal Court and Courts-Martial
In courts-martial for murder (Article 118) with trial dates from 2016 to 2025, the median confinement was 215.9 months after a guilty plea and 83.9 months in contested cases that ended in a conviction. Federal court shows the opposite order: the median prison term was 240 months after a guilty plea
Understanding Trends in Military Practice · 9 min read
Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › Murder and Manslaughter › Murder: Plea vs. Trial
In brief: In courts-martial for murder (Article 118) with trial dates from 2016 to 2025, the median confinement was 215.9 months after a guilty plea and 83.9 months in contested cases that ended in a conviction. Federal court shows the opposite order: the median prison term was 240 months after a guilty plea and 470 months after a trial. Federal court and courts-martial do not count plea and trial the same way, and the sections below explain what each number covers.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 3,243 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, compared with court-martial results from this site's Military Trial Results data (updated November 2, 2026). Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
What Did Court-Martial Murder Sentences Look Like After a Plea?
The records list 34 convictions for murder under Article 118 with trial dates from 2016 to 2025. Of those, 19 followed a guilty plea and 15 came from contested cases. Guilty pleas made up 56% of the 34 convictions with a plea recorded.
After a guilty plea, the median confinement was 215.9 months, based on 15 cases with confinement. In contested cases that ended in a conviction, the median was 83.9 months, based on 11 cases with confinement. Confinement after a guilty plea was higher than after a contested conviction.
A court-martial is contested when the accused pleads not guilty to at least one charge, so a mixed plea counts as contested. The sentences are the ones adjudged at trial, before any clemency or appeal.
Does the Same Pattern Appear in Each Service?
Not in every service. The Army medians were about the same in both groups: 263.8 months after a guilty plea (8 cases) and 261.3 months in contested cases (2 cases). In the Air Force, the median after a guilty plea was 269.8 months (2 cases), and in contested cases it was 215.9 months (3 cases).
The Navy median was 119.9 months after a guilty plea (5 cases) and 33 months in contested cases (5 cases). The Marine Corps records show no guilty-plea case with confinement and 1 contested case, with a median of 65 months.
Most of these counts are under 10 cases. A single case can move a median, so the service figures show the range of results and not a stable rate.
| Service | Median confinement after a guilty plea (cases) | Median confinement, contested cases (cases) |
|---|---|---|
| Army | 263.8 months (8) | 261.3 months (2) |
| Air Force | 269.8 months (2) | 215.9 months (3) |
| Navy | 119.9 months (5) | 33 months (5) |
| Marine Corps | n/a (0) | 65 months (1) |
What Did Federal Court Show for Murder?
The U.S. Sentencing Commission data covers 3,243 people sentenced under guideline §2A1.1 (first degree murder) or §2A1.2 (second degree murder) in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. The federal plea rate for this offense was 77%.
The median prison term was 240 months after a guilty plea and 470 months after a trial. The trial figure rests on 761 people who were convicted at trial and sent to prison. Federal trial terms were higher than federal plea terms, the reverse of the court-martial order.
In the federal data, a trial includes people who pleaded guilty to some counts and went to trial on others. That group is close to, but not the same as, a contested court-martial.
How Did Federal Sentences Compare With the Guideline Range?
The guideline range is the sentencing range that the federal guidelines calculate for a case. Among the 3,243 people sentenced, 40% received a sentence within the range. Another 42% were sentenced below the range at the government's request, and 13% were sentenced below it without a government request. A sentence above the range applied to 5%.
These figures show how often sentences matched the range. They do not show why a court went below it, and they do not separate plea cases from trial cases.
What Do These Numbers Not Show?
Each side counts different things. The court-martial figures cover convictions under one article by trial date. The federal figures cover people sentenced under guideline sections §2A1.1 and §2A1.2 by fiscal year, and fiscal years do not match calendar years.
Federal prison terms are the terms imposed, not time served. Court-martial confinement is the sentence adjudged, not time served either.
The records do not show why plea sentences were higher in one system and lower in the other. They do not show whether a plea agreement limited a sentence, or which facts of each case set it. With 11 and 15 cases behind the court-martial medians, the comparison is also limited by size.
How We Counted
Courts-martial: convictions for murder (Article 118) with trial dates in 2016 to 2025, split by plea (19 guilty pleas, 15 contested). Medians use cases with confinement adjudged. Federal: 3,243 people sentenced under guideline §2A1.1 (first degree murder) or §2A1.2 (second degree murder), fiscal years 2016 to 2025 (U.S. Sentencing Commission).
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
Who is in each set of numbers. The federal sentencing numbers come from the U.S. Sentencing Commission. They count only people who were convicted and sentenced in federal district court. People whose cases were dismissed or who were acquitted are not in them. The military numbers come from court-martial results, which include acquittals. To compare acquittal or dismissal rates, the federal side uses a different source: the Federal Judicial Center's case data, which counts every defendant whose case ended.
Different cases reach each system. Federal prosecutors bring a narrow set of cases. In fiscal year 2024, immigration and drug trafficking cases were 59% of everyone sentenced in federal court (36,664 of 61,678). Many crimes that the military prosecutes, such as most assaults, most sexual assaults between adults, and drug use, are usually state crimes for civilians and reach federal court only in special situations, such as on federal land or in Indian Country. A federal case and a court-martial for the same crime can involve different kinds of facts.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
Offense categories do not line up exactly. Each comparison uses a federal offense group chosen to match the military article as closely as possible (see the crosswalk). Some matches are close; others are partial. The post says which federal guideline or statute was used and why it is not an exact match.
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Military confinement credit and parole. For military sentences adjudged after 2004, good conduct time is 5 days for each month of confinement, about 16%. Military prisoners can also earn up to 8 more days a month for work and programs and up to 2 days a month for special acts, with a limit of 15 days a month in total. Military prisoners can be considered for parole by their service's clemency and parole board. The military numbers in this post are the confinement adjudged at trial, not the time served.
Military sentences include punishments federal sentences do not. A court-martial sentence can include a punitive discharge (bad-conduct discharge, dishonorable discharge, or dismissal for officers), reduction in rank, and forfeiture of pay. These have no federal counterpart. A comparison of months of confinement leaves them out. A short confinement term combined with a dishonorable discharge is a heavier sentence than the months alone show.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Plea agreements work differently. In federal court, most plea agreements do not bind the judge on the sentence. Since 2019, a military plea agreement can set a minimum and maximum sentence that the military judge must follow if the judge accepts the agreement. The federal numbers count anyone who pleaded guilty, with or without a written agreement.
How "plea" and "trial" are counted. In the federal sentencing numbers, "trial" means the person was convicted after a trial, including people who pleaded guilty to some counts and went to trial on others. People acquitted at trial are not in these numbers at all (see "Who is in each set of numbers"). In the federal case data, the trial rate counts both convictions and acquittals at trial among all defendants whose cases ended, including dismissed cases. Military numbers count contested cases that reached a verdict. These denominators are not the same, and each post states the one it uses.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- Murder and Manslaughter: Federal vs. Court-Martial Sentences, 2016–2025 (overview)
- Murder Charges: How Often Federal Trials and Courts-Martial End in Acquittal
- Guilty Pleas in Murder Cases: Federal Court vs. Courts-Martial
- Murder Convictions of Junior Enlisted (E-1 to E-4): Courts-Martial Compared With Federal Court
- Murder Convictions of NCOs (E-5 to E-9): Courts-Martial Compared With Federal Court
- Murder Sentences: Federal Court vs. Courts-Martial, 2016–2025
- Murder: Federal Sentences vs. Air Force Courts-Martial
- Is Army Murder Prosecution Rising or Falling? Article 118, 2021–2025 (court-martial data)
- Article 118 Sentences in the Air Force: Confinement and Discharges, 2016–2025 (court-martial data)
- How Has Article 118 Changed in Navy-Marine Corps Courts-Martial Since 2017? (court-martial data)
- How Much Confinement for an Article 118 Conviction in the Navy-Marine Corps? (court-martial data)
- Article 118 (Murder): Court-Martial Data and Trends (court-martial data)
- Article 118 UCMJ: Murder (law firm reference page)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.