§2T3.1 Evading Import Duties or Restrictions (Smuggling): Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2025
In fiscal year 2025, 12 people were sentenced in federal court with §2T3.1 as the primary guideline. 10 of them (83%) received a prison term, and the median was 4.4 months. That share sent to prison is higher than the 52% for all fiscal years 2016 to 2025 under this guideline.
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Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › §2T3.1 Evading Import Duties or Restrictions (Smuggling) › §2T3.1: FY2025
In brief: In fiscal year 2025, 12 people were sentenced in federal court with §2T3.1 as the primary guideline. 10 of them (83%) received a prison term, and the median was 4.4 months. That share sent to prison is higher than the 52% for all fiscal years 2016 to 2025 under this guideline.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 12 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2025. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Who Was Sent to Prison in Fiscal Year 2025
Guideline §2T3.1 is titled "Evading Import Duties or Restrictions (Smuggling); Receiving or Trafficking in Smuggled Property" in the Sentencing Guidelines Manual. The U.S. Sentencing Commission counted 12 people with this as the primary guideline in fiscal year 2025.
10 of the 12 (83%) were sent to prison, and 2 (17%) received probation only. The median prison term was 4.4 months. A quarter received 17.5 months or more, and a quarter received 0.2 months or less.
The 4.4-month median is a little lower than the all-years median of 5.1 months. The range between the 17.5-month and 0.2-month marks is wide for a group of 10.
Sentences Split Between Within-Range and Government-Requested Departures
5 sentences (42%) were within the guideline range. 5 (42%) were below the range at the government's request, and 2 (17%) were below it without a government request. None were above the range.
Within-range sentences were less common than the 48% for all years under this guideline. For all guidelines combined in fiscal year 2025, the figure was 51%.
Plea Results
12 of the 12 people (100%) pleaded guilty. Every plea had a written plea agreement, and none were straight pleas. No mandatory minimum prison term applied to any of the 12.
The all-years guilty plea rate under this guideline is 99%, and the rate for all guidelines in fiscal year 2025 was 98%.
Supervised Release, Restitution, and Criminal History
8 people (67%) were ordered to serve supervised release after prison, with a median term of 30 months. Restitution was ordered for 7 people (58%). No fine was ordered.
92% of the 12 were in the lowest criminal history category, Category I, and 0% were in the highest, Category VI.
Fiscal Year 2025 Beside the Earlier Years
The table gives the count, median prison term, and plea rate for each year. Fiscal year 2024 had 9 people and a median of 1.9 months. Fiscal year 2022 had 14 people and a median of 24 months.
All guidelines combined in fiscal year 2025 covered 66,662 people, with a median prison term of 24 months. The §2T3.1 median was lower. The Commission files these cases under the offense type Tax, and the fiscal year ran from October 1, 2024 to September 30, 2025.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 10 | 5.3 months | 100% |
| 2017 | 6 | 8 months | 5 of 6 |
| 2018 | 8 | 0 months | 8 of 8 |
| 2019 | 3 | 0 months | 3 of 3 |
| 2020 | 9 | 0.8 months | 9 of 9 |
| 2021 | 6 | 9.1 months | 6 of 6 |
| 2022 | 14 | 24 months | 100% |
| 2023 | 7 | 12 months | 7 of 7 |
| 2024 | 9 | 1.9 months | 9 of 9 |
| 2025 | 12 | 4.4 months | 100% |
What the Data Does Not Cover
There is no close court-martial counterpart for this guideline in the approved crosswalk, so this post stays with the federal numbers.
The data includes only people who were convicted and sentenced, and the terms are those imposed rather than time served. With 12 people, a few sentences can change the median. One year is not a trend.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2025 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2T3.1 (12), U.S. Sentencing Commission individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2T3.1 Evading Import Duties or Restrictions (Smuggling): Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- How Often Federal Judges Sentence Outside the Guideline Range
- Mandatory Minimums: How Many Federal Sentences Are Set by Congress
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.