§2B5.1 Offenses Involving Counterfeit Bearer Obligations of the United States: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2025
Fiscal year 2025 had the smallest group in the 2016 to 2025 record for §2B5.1: 40 people. The median prison term was 22.5 months for the 34 people (85%) who were sent to prison. Among the 40, 15% were sentenced above the guideline range.
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Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › §2B5.1 Offenses Involving Counterfeit Bearer Obligations of › §2B5.1: FY2025
In brief: Fiscal year 2025 had the smallest group in the 2016 to 2025 record for §2B5.1: 40 people. The median prison term was 22.5 months for the 34 people (85%) who were sent to prison. Among the 40, 15% were sentenced above the guideline range.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 40 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2025. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
A Small Group With a Longer Median Prison Term
In fiscal year 2025, which ran from October 1, 2024 to September 30, 2025, the U.S. Sentencing Commission counted 40 people sentenced under §2B5.1, "Offenses Involving Counterfeit Bearer Obligations of the United States." The yearly table shows that 40 is lower than any earlier year from 2016.
Of the 40, 34 (85%) received a prison term and 3 (8%) received probation only. The median prison term was 22.5 months. A quarter received 36 months or more, and a quarter received 12 months or less. With a group this size, a few sentences can move a median, so the figure should be read with care.
Sentences Above the Range
The share sentenced above the guideline range was 15% (6 people). Sentences within the range were 53% (21 people).
A sentence below the range at the government's request applied to 13% (5 people), and below the range without a government request to 20% (8 people). No one in the group had a mandatory minimum prison term recorded: 0 of 40 (0%).
One Trial and 39 Guilty Pleas
Of the 40 people, 39 (98%) pleaded guilty and 1 was convicted after a trial. The median prison term after a guilty plea was 21 months. The person convicted at trial received 48 months, so the trial figure describes one sentence and no group.
Written plea agreements covered 87% of the guilty pleas, and 13% were straight pleas.
Supervised Release, Fines, and Restitution
Supervised release after prison was ordered for 34 people (85%), with a median term of 36 months. A fine was ordered for 7 people (18%), and restitution for 24 (60%).
In criminal history, 20% of the group were in category I, the lowest, and 25% were in category VI, the highest. Court-martial records have no criminal history field.
Fiscal Year 2025 Beside the Longer Record and All Guidelines
For fiscal years 2016 to 2025 together, 1,486 people were sentenced under this guideline. In that period, 84% were sent to prison, the median prison term was 18 months, 99% pleaded guilty, and 57% were sentenced within the range. The 2025 median is higher than the 18 months for all years.
In fiscal year 2025, 66,662 people were sentenced under every guideline. Their median prison term was 24 months, 98% pleaded guilty, and 51% were sentenced within the range. The median here is lower than that all-guideline median.
In fiscal year 2024, the previous year, 60 people were sentenced under §2B5.1, with a median prison term of 18 months and 52% within the range. The Commission's offense type for these cases is Forgery/Counter/Copyright.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 280 | 18 months | 97% |
| 2017 | 238 | 15 months | 99% |
| 2018 | 228 | 18 months | more than 99% |
| 2019 | 229 | 15 months | more than 99% |
| 2020 | 160 | 18 months | 99% |
| 2021 | 98 | 15 months | 99% |
| 2022 | 86 | 19.5 months | 99% |
| 2023 | 67 | 20 months | 99% |
| 2024 | 60 | 18 months | 97% |
| 2025 | 40 | 22.5 months | 98% |
Cautions About the Records
These numbers describe people who were convicted and sentenced. They do not include acquittals or dismissals. Prison terms are the terms imposed, not the time served.
One year of 40 people is not a trend, and the records do not say why sentences fell where they did. The approved crosswalk has no close court-martial counterpart for this guideline, so this post gives the federal numbers alone.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2025 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2B5.1 (40), U.S. Sentencing Commission individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2B5.1 Offenses Involving Counterfeit Bearer Obligations of the United States: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- §2B5.1 Offenses Involving Counterfeit Bearer Obligations of the United States: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2024 (previous or next fiscal year)
- How Often Federal Judges Sentence Outside the Guideline Range
- Mandatory Minimums: How Many Federal Sentences Are Set by Congress
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.