§2A3.2 Criminal Sexual Abuse of a Minor Under the Age of Sixteen Years (Statutory Rape) or Attempt to Commit Such Acts: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025
Of 365 people sentenced under §2A3.2 in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, 358 (98%) received prison. The median prison term was 36 months (3 years). After a guilty plea the median was 34 months, and after a trial it was 108 months.
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In brief: Of 365 people sentenced under §2A3.2 in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, 358 (98%) received prison. The median prison term was 36 months (3 years). After a guilty plea the median was 34 months, and after a trial it was 108 months.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 365 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Trials Led to Much Longer Prison Terms
The gap between pleas and trials is the main finding here. The median prison term was 34 months after a guilty plea and 108 months after a trial. The trial figure comes from only 11 people, and the records cannot say whether the facts of those cases differed.
A guilty plea was entered by 354 of the 365 people (97%). Of those, 90% had a written plea agreement and 10% were straight pleas.
What §2A3.2 Covers
The Manual's title is "Criminal Sexual Abuse of a Minor Under the Age of Sixteen Years (Statutory Rape) or Attempt to Commit Such Acts." The Sentencing Commission files the cases as Sexual Abuse.
A case is counted when §2A3.2 was the primary guideline, the one for the most serious count. People who were acquitted or whose cases were dismissed are not in the data.
Prison and Probation
Among the 358 people sent to prison, a quarter received 54 months or more, and a quarter received 21.2 months or less. Probation only was given to 6 people (2%).
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 5 people (1%). All prison terms are those imposed, not time served.
Supervised Release
Supervised release after prison was ordered for 359 people (98%). The median term was 60 months. Supervised release for life was ordered for 55 people (15%).
A fine was ordered for 12 people (3%), and restitution for 45 (12%).
Where Sentences Fell Against the Range
Within the guideline range were 209 people (57%). Below the range at the government's request were 55 (15%), and below the range without a request were 51 (14%). Above the range were 50 people (14%).
On criminal history, 74% were in the lowest criminal history category I, and 1% were in the highest, VI.
Changes From 2016 to 2025
The median prison term was 30 months in fiscal years 2016 to 2019, covering 140 people. It was 37 months in fiscal years 2020 to 2025, covering 225 people. This is a higher median in the later period.
Yearly medians in the table run from 24 months in 2017 to 46 months in 2025, with 28 to 45 people sentenced each year. Because each year is small, the table should be read as a range and not a trend. The guilty plea share was 100% in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2021, and 93% in 2024 and 2025. The records cannot show the reasons.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 33 | 31.5 months | 100% |
| 2017 | 28 | 24 months | 96% |
| 2018 | 39 | 30 months | 100% |
| 2019 | 40 | 36.5 months | 98% |
| 2020 | 28 | 37 months | 100% |
| 2021 | 39 | 36 months | 100% |
| 2022 | 45 | 41 months | 96% |
| 2023 | 43 | 35 months | 95% |
| 2024 | 40 | 30 months | 93% |
| 2025 | 30 | 46 months | 93% |
Court-Martial Crosswalk
This guideline is part of the approved pairing with Article 120b of the UCMJ. The comparison posts cover that pairing, and this post gives only the federal figures.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2A3.2 (365), from the U.S. Sentencing Commission's individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2A3.5 Failure to Register as a Sex Offender: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- §2A1.1 First Degree Murder: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- §2A2.4 Obstructing or Impeding Officers: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- §2A6.1 Threatening or Harassing Communications: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- §2A2.1 Assault with Intent to Commit Murder: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (same guideline chapter part)
- Fewer or More? Child Sexual Abuse Charges at Army Courts-Martial, 2021–2025 (court-martial data)
- How Much Confinement for an Article 120b Conviction in the Army? (court-martial data)
- How Often Are Contested Army Article 120b Cases Acquitted? (court-martial data)
- Pleading Guilty to Article 120b in the Army: What Sentences Followed? (court-martial data)
- How Has Article 120b Changed in Air Force Courts-Martial Since 2016? (court-martial data)
- How Much Confinement for an Article 120b Conviction in the Air Force? (court-martial data)
- Guilty Pleas in Air Force Child Sexual Abuse Cases: How Often, and What Came Next (court-martial data)
- Fewer or More? Child Sexual Abuse Charges at Navy-Marine Corps Courts-Martial, 2017–2025 (court-martial data)
- What Sentence Follows a Navy-Marine Corps Child Sexual Abuse Conviction? (court-martial data)
- Fighting a Navy-Marine Corps Child Sexual Abuse Charge: How Contested Cases Ended (court-martial data)
- Guilty Pleas in Navy-Marine Corps Child Sexual Abuse Cases: How Often, and What Came Next (court-martial data)
- Article 120b (Rape and Sexual Assault of a Child): Court-Martial Data and Trends (court-martial data)
- Article 120b UCMJ: Rape and Sexual Assault of a Child (law firm reference page)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.