§2A1.5 Conspiracy or Solicitation to Commit Murder: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2023
Fiscal year 2023 had the lowest median prison term in the yearly table for §2A1.5, "Conspiracy or Solicitation to Commit Murder": 78 months (6.5 years), for 23 people sentenced in federal court. The records cannot show why, and a group this small does not establish a trend.
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Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › §2A1.5 Conspiracy or Solicitation to Commit Murder › §2A1.5: FY2023
In brief: Fiscal year 2023 had the lowest median prison term in the yearly table for §2A1.5, "Conspiracy or Solicitation to Commit Murder": 78 months (6.5 years), for 23 people sentenced in federal court. The records cannot show why, and a group this small does not establish a trend.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 23 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2023. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
A Low Median in a Small Group
All 23 people (100%) received a prison term. The median was 78 months. A quarter of the group received 58 months or less, and a quarter received 160 months or more.
For all fiscal years 2016 to 2025 under this guideline, the median is 120 months. The previous fiscal year, 2022, had a median of 120 months, and the next, 2024, also had 120 months. The 78 months in 2023 is lower than each of those years and lower than the all-years median. For everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2023, the median was 30 months.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 38 | 120 months | 87% |
| 2017 | 49 | 108 months | 80% |
| 2018 | 24 | 120 months | 79% |
| 2019 | 46 | 124.7 months | 74% |
| 2020 | 34 | 120 months | 94% |
| 2021 | 22 | 144 months | 86% |
| 2022 | 27 | 120 months | 89% |
| 2023 | 23 | 78 months | 96% |
| 2024 | 43 | 120 months | 81% |
| 2025 | 33 | 106 months | 76% |
Reading the 2023 Figure With Care
This post reports what the data show so far. It may be too early to tell whether changes in federal sentencing around 2023 affected these cases. The records cannot show whether any one thing caused the lower median.
With 23 people, a few sentences can move a median. One year does not make a trend.
Sentences Below the Range at the Government's Request
The Guidelines Manual calculates a range for each case. In fiscal year 2023, 15 of the 23 sentences (65%) were below the range at the government's request. A further 3 (13%) were below the range without a request. In 5 cases (22%), the sentence was within the range. None were above it.
For all years under this guideline, 30% of sentences were within the range. For all guidelines in fiscal year 2023, 42% were. The share below the range at the government's request is larger than the share within the range.
Pleas, Trial, and Plea Agreements
Of the 23 people, 22 (96%) pleaded guilty and 1 was convicted at trial. The median prison term after a guilty plea was 75 months. The 1 trial conviction carried 180 months, a figure that rests on a single person.
Among guilty pleas, 91% had a written plea agreement and 9% were straight pleas with no agreement. A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 3 people (13%).
Other Orders and the Year's Dates
All 23 were ordered to serve supervised release, with a median term of 36 months. A fine was ordered for 2 people (9%), and restitution for 6 (26%). Fiscal year 2023 ran from October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023.
Criminal history category I, the lowest, covered 57% of the group, and category VI, the highest, covered 13%. Court-martial files carry no such field.
Scope of the Data
The Commission filed these cases under Murder. The approved crosswalk gives this guideline no court-martial counterpart, so the numbers stand alone. Acquittals and dismissals are not counted, and prison terms are terms imposed, not time served.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2023 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2A1.5 (23), U.S. Sentencing Commission individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2A1.5 Conspiracy or Solicitation to Commit Murder: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- §2A1.5 Conspiracy or Solicitation to Commit Murder: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2022 (previous or next fiscal year)
- §2A1.5 Conspiracy or Solicitation to Commit Murder: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2024 (previous or next fiscal year)
- How Often Federal Judges Sentence Outside the Guideline Range
- Mandatory Minimums: How Many Federal Sentences Are Set by Congress
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.