§2A1.5 Conspiracy or Solicitation to Commit Murder: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2016
Guideline §2A1.5, "Conspiracy or Solicitation to Commit Murder," was the primary guideline for 38 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2016. Every one of them went to prison, with a median term of 120 months (10 years). Few sentences matched the calculated range: 16% were within it, and
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In brief: Guideline §2A1.5, "Conspiracy or Solicitation to Commit Murder," was the primary guideline for 38 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2016. Every one of them went to prison, with a median term of 120 months (10 years). Few sentences matched the calculated range: 16% were within it, and 53% were below it at the government's request.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 38 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2016. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Why So Few Sentences Matched the Range
Each federal case has a sentencing range calculated under the Guidelines Manual. For these 38 people, 6 sentences (16%) fell inside that range. Another 20 (53%) were below it because the government asked for a lower sentence. A further 10 (26%) were below it with no such request, and 2 (5%) were above it.
Across fiscal years 2016 to 2025, 30% of sentences under this guideline were within the range. Across all guidelines in fiscal year 2016, the share was 49%. This guideline's 16% is the lower number in both comparisons.
The data show the sentence and the range side by side. They do not show what led a prosecutor or a judge to a lower term.
Length of Prison Terms
No one in this group received probation only. The median prison term was 120 months, the same as the median for all years of data on this guideline. A quarter of the group received 90.5 months or less, and a quarter received 175 months or more.
Across every guideline in fiscal year 2016, the median prison term was 24 months. Mandatory minimum terms applied to 13 of the 38 people (34%). A mandatory minimum is a prison term that the law sets as a floor for the offense, whatever the guideline range says.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 38 | 120 months | 87% |
| 2017 | 49 | 108 months | 80% |
| 2018 | 24 | 120 months | 79% |
| 2019 | 46 | 124.7 months | 74% |
| 2020 | 34 | 120 months | 94% |
| 2021 | 22 | 144 months | 86% |
| 2022 | 27 | 120 months | 89% |
| 2023 | 23 | 78 months | 96% |
| 2024 | 43 | 120 months | 81% |
| 2025 | 33 | 106 months | 76% |
Who Pleaded Guilty and Who Went to Trial
Guilty pleas accounted for 33 of the 38 cases (87%), and 5 people were convicted at trial. Those who pleaded guilty had a median prison term of 108 months. Those convicted at trial had a median of 204 months. With only 5 trial cases, that second figure is fragile.
Of the guilty pleas, 79% came with a written plea agreement and 21% were straight pleas.
Other Parts of the Sentence
Supervised release followed prison for 35 people (92%), and the median term was 60 months. Courts ordered a fine for 5 people (13%) and restitution for 1 (3%).
Criminal history category I, the lowest, covered 42% of the group. Category VI, the highest, covered 18%. Court-martial files have no such field.
The Fiscal Year and the Year After
Fiscal year 2016 began October 1, 2015 and ended September 30, 2016. The following year, 2017, had 49 people under the same guideline, a median of 108 months, and 20% of sentences within the range.
The Commission put these 38 cases in its Murder category. No court-martial offense is paired with this guideline in the approved crosswalk, so this post gives federal figures only.
Gaps in the Records
People who were acquitted or whose cases were dismissed do not appear in the Commission's files. The prison terms are the terms imposed, and the time actually served may differ.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in fiscal year 2016 whose primary sentencing guideline was §2A1.5 (38), U.S. Sentencing Commission individual data files. The primary guideline is the one that set the offense level for the most serious count.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- §2A1.5 Conspiracy or Solicitation to Commit Murder: Federal Sentences, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- §2A1.5 Conspiracy or Solicitation to Commit Murder: Federal Sentences, Fiscal Year 2017 (previous or next fiscal year)
- How Often Federal Judges Sentence Outside the Guideline Range
- Mandatory Minimums: How Many Federal Sentences Are Set by Congress
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.