Federal Firearms Sentences in the Middle District of Tennessee, FY2016–2025
Firearms offenses made up 29% of the 2,879 people sentenced in the Middle District of Tennessee in fiscal years 2016 to 2025: 821 people. Of those, 778 (95%) received a prison term, and the median was 50 months (4.2 years). The median across all 94 federal districts for this offense type was 42 mont
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Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › Federal Sentences in the Middle District of Tennessee, FY201 › Firearms: Middle District of Tennessee
In brief: Firearms offenses made up 29% of the 2,879 people sentenced in the Middle District of Tennessee in fiscal years 2016 to 2025: 821 people. Of those, 778 (95%) received a prison term, and the median was 50 months (4.2 years). The median across all 94 federal districts for this offense type was 42 months.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 821 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Firearms Cases Are 29% of the District's Sentencings
The U.S. Sentencing Commission counted 821 people in the offense type it labels "Firearms" for this district. They were 29% of everyone sentenced in the district over fiscal years 2016 to 2025. The offense type is the Commission's category, assigned from the primary guideline used at sentencing.
Nearly all of these cases used one guideline: §2K2.1 (Unlawful Receipt, Possession, or Transportation of Firearms or Ammunition), with 801 cases. 2 cases used §2K2.5 (Possession of Firearm or Dangerous Weapon in Federal Facility), and 1 used §2K1.5 (Possessing Dangerous Weapons or Materials While Boarding or Aboard an Aircraft).
Prison Terms
Of the 821 people, 778 (95%) received a prison term, and 32 (4%) received probation only. Across all districts, 94% of people in this offense type were sent to prison.
Among those sent to prison, the median prison term was 50 months. A quarter received 82.5 months or more, and a quarter received 30 months or less. The national median for firearms offenses was 42 months, so the median in this district is higher. It is the same as the median for all offenses in this district, which was also 50 months.
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 139 of the 821 people (17%).
Where Sentences Fell Against the Guideline Range
Among the 819 people with this information, 346 (42%) were sentenced below the range at the government's request. Another 247 (30%) were sentenced below it without a government request. A total of 196 (24%) were within the range, and 30 (4%) were above it.
Across all districts, 52% of firearms sentences were within the range. Within-range sentences were less common in this district. For all offenses here, 26% were within the range, about the same as the share in this offense type.
Guilty Pleas and Trials
Of the 821 people, 800 (97%) pleaded guilty, and 21 were convicted after a trial. The national guilty plea rate for this offense type was also 97%. Among the guilty pleas, 94% had a written plea agreement, and 5% were straight pleas.
The median prison term after a guilty plea was 48 months. After a trial, it was 96 months, based on 21 people. Trial convictions are a small group, and the records do not show why the terms differ.
After Prison, Financial Penalties, and Criminal History
Supervised release after prison was ordered for 758 people (92%), with a median term of 36 months. A fine was ordered for 11 (1%), and restitution for 12 (1%).
In the criminal history records, 10% of people were in the lowest category, category I, and 33% were in the highest, category VI. Court-martial records have no criminal history field.
Changes Across Fiscal Years
The district sentenced 189 people for firearms offenses in fiscal years 2016 to 2019 and 632 in fiscal years 2020 to 2025. Yearly counts range from 30 in fiscal year 2017 to 130 in fiscal year 2022.
The yearly median was 84 months in 2016 and 60 months in 2025. The table has the full series. The records show these numbers and cannot show what produced the changes.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 38 | 84 months | 97% |
| 2017 | 30 | 60 months | 100% |
| 2018 | 48 | 60 months | 98% |
| 2019 | 73 | 47 months | 97% |
| 2020 | 78 | 50 months | 99% |
| 2021 | 99 | 46.5 months | 99% |
| 2022 | 130 | 50 months | 95% |
| 2023 | 101 | 48 months | 97% |
| 2024 | 107 | 48 months | 98% |
| 2025 | 117 | 60 months | 97% |
What the Records Cannot Show
The data counts only people who were convicted and sentenced. Acquittals and dismissals are not in it. Prison terms are those imposed, not time served.
The records do not describe the facts of any case. They cannot show how a firearm was used or whether another offense was involved.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in the Middle District of Tennessee (U.S. Sentencing Commission district label "Tennessee Mid") in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 whose offense type was "Firearms" (821). Offense types are the Commission's OFFGUIDE categories.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- Federal Sentences in the Middle District of Tennessee, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- Federal Drug Trafficking Sentences in the Middle District of Tennessee, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Fraud, Theft, and Embezzlement Sentences in the Middle District of Tennessee, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Immigration Offense Sentences in the Middle District of Tennessee, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Robbery Sentences in the Middle District of Tennessee, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.