Drug Possession: Sentences After a Guilty Plea vs. After Trial, Federal Court and Courts-Martial
In federal court, the median prison term for simple possession was 6 months after a guilty plea and 84 months after a trial. In courts-martial for drug possession, the median confinement was 4.2 months after a guilty plea and 3 months in contested cases that ended in conviction. The court-martial an
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In brief: In federal court, the median prison term for simple possession was 6 months after a guilty plea and 84 months after a trial. In courts-martial for drug possession, the median confinement was 4.2 months after a guilty plea and 3 months in contested cases that ended in conviction. The court-martial and federal results point in opposite directions, and the groups behind each number differ greatly in size.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 6,268 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, compared with court-martial results from this site's Military Trial Results data (updated November 2, 2026). Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Federal Sentences After a Plea and After a Trial
The federal records cover 6,268 people sentenced in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 under a conviction for simple possession, 21 U.S.C. 844. Federal court reports a plea rate of 98% for this offense.
The median prison term was 6 months after a guilty plea. After a trial it was 84 months. The trial figure is based on 91 people who were convicted at trial and sent to prison.
In the federal sentencing data, the word trial also covers people who pleaded guilty to some counts and went to trial on others. The 84 months therefore may not describe people who contested every charge.
Court-Martial Sentences by Type of Case
The court-martial records list 228 convictions with a plea recorded, with trial dates from 2016 to 2025. Of those, 171 were guilty pleas, and 57 came from contested cases. A contested case is one where the accused pleaded not guilty to at least one charge.
The median confinement was 4.2 months after a guilty plea, based on 158 cases with confinement. In contested cases that ended in conviction it was 3 months, based on 42 cases with confinement.
That makes the court-martial median after a guilty plea higher than the median in contested cases. This is the reverse of the federal pattern.
The Services Taken Separately
Each service shows a lower median in contested cases than after a guilty plea, except where the base is too small. The Army had 1 contested case with confinement, at 14 months, so no pattern can be taken from it.
The Marine Corps median was 9 months after a plea and 3.5 months in contested cases, based on 43 and 8 cases. The Navy was 6.5 months and 3.9 months, based on 20 and 6 cases. The Air Force was 3.9 months and 2 months, based on 72 and 27 cases.
| Service | Median confinement after a guilty plea (cases) | Median confinement, contested cases (cases) |
|---|---|---|
| Army | 3 months (23) | 14 months (1) |
| Air Force | 3.9 months (72) | 2 months (27) |
| Navy | 6.5 months (20) | 3.9 months (6) |
| Marine Corps | 9 months (43) | 3.5 months (8) |
How the Federal Guidelines Frame Sentences
Federal sentences are measured against a guideline range. For this offense, the sentence was within the range for 87% of the people with that information. It was above the range for 7%, below it at the government's request for 2%, and below it without a request for 3%.
Court-martial records have no matching field. The comparison between the systems is therefore limited to the length of confinement or prison.
Why a Direct Comparison Is Hard
A court-martial sentence is adjudged at trial, before any clemency or appeal. A federal prison term is the term imposed, not time served.
The court-martial medians combine every service and every kind of court-martial. The records used here do not separate them by who imposed the sentence.
What Cannot Be Concluded
The records do not show why a sentence after a trial differs from a sentence after a plea in either system. They cannot show whether any plea agreement shaped a sentence, or what charges were dropped.
The federal trial group and the contested court-martial group are not defined the same way. The numbers show what was recorded, and they do not show what a person facing either system should expect.
How We Counted
Courts-martial: convictions for drug possession (Article 112a wrongful possession; federal simple possession, 21 U.S.C. 844) with trial dates in 2016 to 2025, split by plea (171 guilty pleas, 57 contested). Medians use cases with confinement adjudged. Federal: 6,268 people sentenced under a conviction under 21 U.S.C. 844 (simple possession), any guideline, fiscal years 2016 to 2025 (U.S. Sentencing Commission).
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
Who is in each set of numbers. The federal sentencing numbers come from the U.S. Sentencing Commission. They count only people who were convicted and sentenced in federal district court. People whose cases were dismissed or who were acquitted are not in them. The military numbers come from court-martial results, which include acquittals. To compare acquittal or dismissal rates, the federal side uses a different source: the Federal Judicial Center's case data, which counts every defendant whose case ended.
Different cases reach each system. Federal prosecutors bring a narrow set of cases. In fiscal year 2024, immigration and drug trafficking cases were 59% of everyone sentenced in federal court (36,664 of 61,678). Many crimes that the military prosecutes, such as most assaults, most sexual assaults between adults, and drug use, are usually state crimes for civilians and reach federal court only in special situations, such as on federal land or in Indian Country. A federal case and a court-martial for the same crime can involve different kinds of facts.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
Offense categories do not line up exactly. Each comparison uses a federal offense group chosen to match the military article as closely as possible (see the crosswalk). Some matches are close; others are partial. The post says which federal guideline or statute was used and why it is not an exact match.
Drug use has no federal counterpart. Federal law does not make drug use a crime. A positive drug test is not a federal offense; a civilian can be charged only with possessing the drug. Bringing drugs onto a military installation is also a military-only offense. For these, the nearest federal charge is simple possession, and the post says that the match is not exact.
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Military confinement credit and parole. For military sentences adjudged after 2004, good conduct time is 5 days for each month of confinement, about 16%. Military prisoners can also earn up to 8 more days a month for work and programs and up to 2 days a month for special acts, with a limit of 15 days a month in total. Military prisoners can be considered for parole by their service's clemency and parole board. The military numbers in this post are the confinement adjudged at trial, not the time served.
Military sentences include punishments federal sentences do not. A court-martial sentence can include a punitive discharge (bad-conduct discharge, dishonorable discharge, or dismissal for officers), reduction in rank, and forfeiture of pay. These have no federal counterpart. A comparison of months of confinement leaves them out. A short confinement term combined with a dishonorable discharge is a heavier sentence than the months alone show.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Plea agreements work differently. In federal court, most plea agreements do not bind the judge on the sentence. Since 2019, a military plea agreement can set a minimum and maximum sentence that the military judge must follow if the judge accepts the agreement. The federal numbers count anyone who pleaded guilty, with or without a written agreement.
How "plea" and "trial" are counted. In the federal sentencing numbers, "trial" means the person was convicted after a trial, including people who pleaded guilty to some counts and went to trial on others. People acquitted at trial are not in these numbers at all (see "Who is in each set of numbers"). In the federal case data, the trial rate counts both convictions and acquittals at trial among all defendants whose cases ended, including dismissed cases. Military numbers count contested cases that reached a verdict. These denominators are not the same, and each post states the one it uses.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- Federal Law Has No Crime of Drug Use: How Article 112a Cases Compare (overview)
- Drug Possession Sentences Since the 2023 Military Sentencing Reform: What the Data Shows So Far
- Drug Possession Charges: How Often Federal Trials and Courts-Martial End in Acquittal
- Drug Possession Charges: Federal Trial Acquittals vs. Contested Marine Corps Courts-Martial
- Guilty Pleas in Drug Possession Cases: Federal Court vs. Courts-Martial
- Drug Possession Convictions of Junior Enlisted (E-1 to E-4): Courts-Martial Compared With Federal Court
- Drug Possession Convictions of NCOs (E-5 to E-9): Courts-Martial Compared With Federal Court
- Are Courts-Martial More Likely to End in Acquittal Than Federal Trials? (related comparison)
- Guilty Pleas in Federal Court vs. Courts-Martial, Year by Year (related comparison)
- Child Pornography Sentences: Federal Court vs. Courts-Martial, 2016–2025 (related comparison)
- Drug Distribution and Importation: Federal vs. Court-Martial Sentences, 2016–2025 (related comparison)
- Sexual Abuse of an Adult: Federal Cases vs. Article 120 Courts-Martial (related comparison)
- Child Sexual Abuse and Enticement: Federal Cases vs. Article 120b Courts-Martial (related comparison)
- Theft and Fraud by Dollar Loss: Federal Sentences vs. Article 121 Courts-Martial (related comparison)
- Army Article 112a Cases by the Numbers, 2021–2025 (court-martial data)
- What Sentence Follows an Army Drug Conviction? (court-martial data)
- How Often Are Contested Army Article 112a Cases Acquitted? (court-martial data)
- Guilty Pleas in Army Drug Cases: How Often, and What Came Next (court-martial data)
- Are Air Force Drug Courts-Martial Disappearing? Article 112a, 2016–2025 (court-martial data)
- How Much Confinement for an Article 112a Conviction in the Air Force? (court-martial data)
- Pleading Guilty to Article 112a in the Air Force: What Sentences Followed? (court-martial data)
- Is Navy-Marine Corps Drug Prosecution Rising or Falling? Article 112a, 2017–2025 (court-martial data)
- How Much Confinement for an Article 112a Conviction in the Navy-Marine Corps? (court-martial data)
- Fighting a Navy-Marine Corps Drug Charge: How Contested Cases Ended (court-martial data)
- When Navy-Marine Corps Accused Plead Guilty to Drug (court-martial data)
- Article 112a (Wrongful Use, Possession of Controlled Substances): Court-Martial Data and Trends (court-martial data)
- Article 112a UCMJ Drug Offenses and Positive Urinalysis (law firm reference page)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.