Federal Arson Sentences in the Northern District of Illinois, FY2016–2025
All 16 people sentenced for arson in the Northern District of Illinois in fiscal years 2017 to 2025 pleaded guilty and received a prison term. The median prison term was 42.5 months, compared with 60 months for arson in all 94 federal districts.
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Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › Federal Sentences in the Northern District of Illinois, FY20 › Arson: Northern District of Illinois
In brief: All 16 people sentenced for arson in the Northern District of Illinois in fiscal years 2017 to 2025 pleaded guilty and received a prison term. The median prison term was 42.5 months, compared with 60 months for arson in all 94 federal districts.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 16 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Every Arson Case Ended in a Plea and a Prison Term
In fiscal years 2017 to 2025, 16 people in this district were sentenced for arson, which is the U.S. Sentencing Commission's offense type "Arson." All 16 (100%) received a prison term, and all 16 (100%) pleaded guilty. None was convicted after a trial.
Every guilty plea had a written plea agreement. Restitution was ordered for all 16 people, and no fines were ordered. The data do not say what property was involved or how much damage was done.
Median Prison Term Compared With Other Groups
The median prison term was 42.5 months (3.5 years). A quarter received 60 months or more, and a quarter received 33 months or less.
For arson in all 94 districts, the median prison term was 60 months, and 96% were sent to prison. For all offenses in the Northern District of Illinois, the median was 42 months. The arson median here was lower than the all-district arson median and about the same as the all-offense median for the district.
Mandatory Minimums and the Guideline Range
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 9 of the 16 people (56%). That is a large share for this district, though the sheet gives no all-district figure to compare it with.
Sentences were spread across the guideline range. In all, 5 people (31%) were within the range, and 3 (19%) were below it at the government's request. Another 5 (31%) were below it without a government request, and 3 (19%) were above it. For arson in all districts, 45% of sentences were within the range, and the figure for all offenses in the district was 29%.
The Guideline Behind These Cases
All 16 cases had the same primary guideline, §2K1.4 (Arson). The category is the Commission's own, and it is based on that guideline.
Arson cases were less than 1% of the 6,211 people sentenced in the district in fiscal years 2016 to 2025.
Supervised Release and Criminal History
After prison, 15 people (94%) were ordered to serve supervised release. The median term was 36 months.
By criminal history, 13% were in the lowest category and 6% in the highest. Court-martial records have no criminal history field.
Counts by Fiscal Year
Fiscal years 2016 to 2019 had 4 people, and fiscal years 2020 to 2025 had 12. No year in the table had more than 4 people. The table has no rows for some years, and the small counts do not support any trend.
Fiscal years run from the start of October to the end of September.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 3 | 30 months | 3 of 3 |
| 2018 | 1 | 72 months | 1 of 1 |
| 2022 | 4 | 60 months | 4 of 4 |
| 2023 | 4 | 52.5 months | 4 of 4 |
| 2024 | 2 | 36.5 months | 2 of 2 |
| 2025 | 2 | 31 months | 2 of 2 |
What Cannot Be Learned Here
The Commission counts only people who were convicted and sentenced. Acquittals and dismissals are not in the data. Prison terms are the terms imposed, not time served.
Great Lakes, Illinois, is a military installation in this district. Courts-martial are tried in military courts, not in this federal district court.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in the Northern District of Illinois (U.S. Sentencing Commission district label "Illinois North") in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 whose offense type was "Arson" (16). Offense types are the Commission's OFFGUIDE categories.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- Federal Sentences in the Northern District of Illinois, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- Federal Drug Trafficking Sentences in the Northern District of Illinois, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Fraud, Theft, and Embezzlement Sentences in the Northern District of Illinois, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Firearms Sentences in the Northern District of Illinois, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Robbery Sentences in the Northern District of Illinois, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.