Federal Arson Sentences in the Northern District of California, FY2016–2025
All 10 people sentenced for arson offenses in the Northern District of California in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 received a prison term, and a mandatory minimum applied to 7 of them (70%). The median prison term was 48 months (4 years). In all 94 federal districts, the median for arson was 60 months.
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Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › Federal Sentences in the Northern District of California, FY › Arson: Northern District of California
In brief: All 10 people sentenced for arson offenses in the Northern District of California in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 received a prison term, and a mandatory minimum applied to 7 of them (70%). The median prison term was 48 months (4 years). In all 94 federal districts, the median for arson was 60 months.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 10 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Mandatory Minimums Applied in Most Cases
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 7 of the 10 people (70%). A mandatory minimum is a minimum prison term set by statute.
The group is small, and the records cannot show which charges carried the minimums. They also cannot show how the minimums affected any sentence.
The share is a count of cases. It is not a measure of how severe the underlying conduct was.
Prison Terms in This District and Nationwide
All 10 people (100%) received a prison term, and no one received probation only.
Among them, the median prison term was 48 months. A quarter received 58.5 months or more, and a quarter received 36.5 months or less.
In all 94 districts, 742 people were sentenced for arson, and 96% were sent to prison. The national median was 60 months, which is higher than the district median.
One Guideline Covers Every Case
"Arson" is the U.S. Sentencing Commission's offense type, assigned from each case's primary guideline.
All 10 people were sentenced under §2K1.4 (Arson). The records therefore do not divide arson cases into smaller groups.
These cases were less than 1% of the 4,531 people sentenced in the district across fiscal years 2016 to 2025. For all offenses in the district, the median prison term was 30 months.
Sentences Against the Guideline Range
Each case has a guideline range calculated under the federal guidelines. Within that range were 40% (4) of the 10 sentences.
Another 40% (4) were below the range at the government's request. A sentence above the range was given to 20% (2), and none was below the range without a government request.
Nationally, 45% of arson sentences were within the range. For all offenses in this district, the figure was 24%.
Pleas, Trial, and Plea Agreements
Of the 10 people, 9 (90%) pleaded guilty and 1 was convicted after a trial. All 9 guilty pleas had a written plea agreement.
The median prison term after a guilty plea was 48 months. The 1 person convicted at trial received 216 months. A single case cannot be compared with the plea group.
Supervised Release, Restitution, and Criminal History
All 10 people (100%) were ordered to serve supervised release after prison, with a median term of 36 months. Restitution was ordered for 6 (60%), and no fine was ordered (0%).
On criminal history, 20% were in the lowest category, category I, and 20% were in the highest, category VI. Court-martial records have no criminal history field.
Yearly Counts
The federal fiscal year begins October 1 and ends September 30. The records show 2 people sentenced in fiscal years 2016 to 2019 and 8 in fiscal years 2020 to 2025.
No year has more than 2 people. The yearly medians range from 0 months in 2024 to 235 months in 2025, and each of those years has 1 person. Those figures cannot show a trend.
The records count only people who were convicted and sentenced, and prison terms are the terms imposed, not time served.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1 | 41 months | 1 of 1 |
| 2017 | 1 | 35 months | 1 of 1 |
| 2020 | 1 | 60 months | 1 of 1 |
| 2021 | 2 | 132 months | 1 of 2 |
| 2022 | 2 | 40.1 months | 2 of 2 |
| 2023 | 1 | 54 months | 1 of 1 |
| 2024 | 1 | 0 months | 1 of 1 |
| 2025 | 1 | 235 months | 1 of 1 |
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in the Northern District of California (U.S. Sentencing Commission district label "California North") in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 whose offense type was "Arson" (10). Offense types are the Commission's OFFGUIDE categories.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- Federal Sentences in the Northern District of California, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- Federal Drug Trafficking Sentences in the Northern District of California, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Firearms Sentences in the Northern District of California, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Fraud, Theft, and Embezzlement Sentences in the Northern District of California, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Immigration Offense Sentences in the Northern District of California, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.