Federal Arson Sentences in the Middle District of Florida, FY2016–2025
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 15 of the 16 people (94%) sentenced for arson in the Middle District of Florida. All 16 received a prison term, and the median was 61.5 months (5.1 years). The records for this offense type run from fiscal year 2016 through fiscal year 2022.
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Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › Federal Sentences in the Middle District of Florida, FY2016– › Arson: Middle District of Florida
In brief: A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 15 of the 16 people (94%) sentenced for arson in the Middle District of Florida. All 16 received a prison term, and the median was 61.5 months (5.1 years). The records for this offense type run from fiscal year 2016 through fiscal year 2022.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 16 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Mandatory Minimums and Prison Terms
A mandatory minimum is a prison term set by statute that a judge generally cannot go below. One was recorded as applying to 15 of the 16 people (94%). The Commission recorded the information for all 16.
All 16 people (100%) received a prison term. The median was 61.5 months (5.1 years). A quarter received 126 months or more, and a quarter received 60 months or less.
Across all 94 districts, the median prison term for arson was 60 months, and 96% of people were sent to prison. For all offenses in this district, the median was 57 months.
Pleas and Trials
14 of the 16 people (88%) pleaded guilty, and 2 were convicted after a trial. The plea rate was 93% across all 94 districts and 95% for all offenses in this district.
The median prison term after a guilty plea was 61.5 months. After a trial it was 85 months, based on 2 people. A group of 2 is too small to compare trial sentences with plea sentences.
Among the guilty pleas, 79% had a written plea agreement and 21% were straight pleas with no agreement.
Position Against the Guideline Range
63% of the sentences (10 people) were within the guideline range. 19% (3 people) were below the range at the government's request, and 6% (1 person) were below it without a government request. 13% (2 people) were above the range.
Across all 94 districts, 45% of arson sentences were within the range. For all offenses in this district, the figure was 47%.
The Guideline Used
"Arson" is the U.S. Sentencing Commission's offense type for this group. Every case in the group used the same primary guideline, §2K1.4 (Arson), with 16 people.
These cases were less than 1% of the 13,145 people sentenced in the district in fiscal years 2016 to 2025.
Supervised Release, Restitution, and Criminal History
All 16 people (100%) were ordered to serve supervised release after prison, with a median term of 36 months. 1 person (6%) received supervised release for life.
No fine was ordered. Restitution was ordered for 9 people (56%).
31% of the people were in the lowest criminal history category (Category I), and 31% were in the highest (VI). Court-martial records have no criminal history field.
Cases by Fiscal Year
The district had 6 people in fiscal years 2016 to 2019 and 10 people in fiscal years 2020 to 2025. The table lists years 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022, and no later years.
Fiscal year 2020 had the most, with 6 people. Yearly medians range from 34 months in fiscal year 2022 to 120 months in fiscal year 2021, but each rests on 6 people or fewer. The records do not show a trend. The fiscal year runs from October 1 to September 30.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1 | 63 months | 1 of 1 |
| 2018 | 4 | 105 months | 3 of 4 |
| 2019 | 1 | 60 months | 0 of 1 |
| 2020 | 6 | 102 months | 6 of 6 |
| 2021 | 2 | 120 months | 2 of 2 |
| 2022 | 2 | 34 months | 2 of 2 |
What the Records Cannot Show
The data counts only people who were convicted and sentenced. Acquittals and dismissals are not included, and prison terms are the terms imposed, not time served.
Jacksonville, MacDill AFB, and Mayport, Florida are military installations in this district. Courts-martial are tried in military courts, not in this federal district court.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in the Middle District of Florida (U.S. Sentencing Commission district label "Florida Mid") in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 whose offense type was "Arson" (16). Offense types are the Commission's OFFGUIDE categories.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- Federal Sentences in the Middle District of Florida, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- Federal Drug Trafficking Sentences in the Middle District of Florida, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Immigration Offense Sentences in the Middle District of Florida, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Fraud, Theft, and Embezzlement Sentences in the Middle District of Florida, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Firearms Sentences in the Middle District of Florida, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.