Federal Arson Sentences in the Eastern District of North Carolina, FY2016–2025
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 12 of the 16 people (75%) sentenced for arson in the Eastern District of North Carolina in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. All 16 received a prison term, and the median was 36 months (3 years), compared with 60 months for all 94 federal districts.
· Understanding Trends in Military Practice · 6 min read
Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › Federal Sentences in the Eastern District of North Carolina, › Arson: Eastern District of North Carolina
In brief: A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 12 of the 16 people (75%) sentenced for arson in the Eastern District of North Carolina in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. All 16 received a prison term, and the median was 36 months (3 years), compared with 60 months for all 94 federal districts.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 16 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Mandatory Minimums Applied to Most Cases
A mandatory minimum is a prison term that the court must impose by law when the charge carries one. In this district, it applied to 12 of the 16 people with that information recorded (75%).
Even so, the median prison term was lower here than for arson across all districts, where it was 60 months for 742 people. The records do not show how the minimums interacted with each sentence.
Prison Terms
All 16 people (100%) were sent to prison, and none received probation only. For all districts, 96% were sent to prison.
The median prison term was 36 months. A quarter received 60 months or more, and a quarter received 29.2 months or less. For all offenses in this district, the median was 60 months.
Pleas
All 16 pleaded guilty, and none were convicted after a trial. Across all districts, 93% pleaded guilty. For all offenses in this district, the rate was 98%.
A written plea agreement was recorded for 94% of the guilty pleas, and 6% were straight pleas with no agreement.
Sentences Compared With the Guideline Range
The sentencing guidelines recommend a range for each case. 38% (6) of the 16 sentences were within it. 31% (5) were below it at the government's request, 25% (4) were below it without a government request, and 6% (1) were above it.
For all districts, 45% of arson sentences were within the range. For all offenses in this district, 56% were. Within-range sentences were less common for arson here than in the district as a whole.
Guideline Used and Share of the Caseload
Arson is an offense type that the U.S. Sentencing Commission assigns by primary guideline. In 15 of the 16 cases, that guideline was §2K1.4 (Arson). The other case used §2X3.1 (Accessory After the Fact).
The 16 cases were less than 1% of the 7,801 people sentenced in the district over the period.
Restitution and Supervised Release
Restitution was ordered for 13 of the 16 people (81%), while no fine was ordered for any (0%). All 16 were ordered to serve supervised release after prison, with a median term of 36 months.
On criminal history, 63% were in category I, the lowest, and 6% were in category VI, the highest. Court-martial records have no criminal history field.
Yearly Counts and Their Limits
Fiscal years 2016 to 2019 had 5 people, and fiscal years 2020 to 2025 had 11. The table shows no more than 4 people in any year. Yearly medians run from 0 months in fiscal year 2025 to 240 months in fiscal year 2019, each based on 1 to 4 people, so they do not form a trend.
The Commission's data covers only people convicted and sentenced, and prison terms are as imposed. Camp Lejeune, Fort Bragg, Marine Corps Air Station Cherry Point, and Seymour Johnson AFB are in the district, but their courts-martial are not part of this federal data.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1 | 9 months | 1 of 1 |
| 2017 | 2 | 51 months | 2 of 2 |
| 2018 | 1 | 6 months | 1 of 1 |
| 2019 | 1 | 240 months | 1 of 1 |
| 2021 | 4 | 30 months | 4 of 4 |
| 2022 | 4 | 45 months | 4 of 4 |
| 2023 | 2 | 60 months | 2 of 2 |
| 2025 | 1 | 0 months | 1 of 1 |
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in the Eastern District of North Carolina (U.S. Sentencing Commission district label "N Carolina East") in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 whose offense type was "Arson" (16). Offense types are the Commission's OFFGUIDE categories.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- Federal Sentences in the Eastern District of North Carolina, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- Federal Drug Trafficking Sentences in the Eastern District of North Carolina, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Firearms Sentences in the Eastern District of North Carolina, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Other Offense Sentences in the Eastern District of North Carolina, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Fraud, Theft, and Embezzlement Sentences in the Eastern District of North Carolina, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.