Federal Arson Sentences in the Eastern District of Kentucky, FY2016–2025
In the Eastern District of Kentucky, 10 people were sentenced for arson offenses in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. All 10 received a prison term, and the median prison term was 60 months (5 years). That is the same median as for arson cases in all 94 federal districts together.
· Understanding Trends in Military Practice · 6 min read
Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › Federal Sentences in the Eastern District of Kentucky, FY201 › Arson: Eastern District of Kentucky
In brief: In the Eastern District of Kentucky, 10 people were sentenced for arson offenses in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. All 10 received a prison term, and the median prison term was 60 months (5 years). That is the same median as for arson cases in all 94 federal districts together.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 10 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
How Many Arson Cases Were Sentenced, and What Were the Prison Terms?
The U.S. Sentencing Commission lists 10 people sentenced for arson in this district over fiscal years 2016 to 2025. The fiscal year runs October 1 to September 30. Arson is the Commission's own offense category, and every one of the 10 cases had §2K1.4 (Arson) as the primary guideline.
Among the 10 people sent to prison, the median prison term was 60 months. A quarter received 63.8 months or more, and a quarter received 57 months or less. These are the terms imposed, not time served.
A Small Share of the District's Work
Arson cases were less than 1% of the 4,374 people sentenced in the Eastern District of Kentucky in this period. The median prison term for all offenses in the district was 70 months, which is higher than the 60 months for arson.
The count is small. Each percentage rests on very few people, so the figures describe a handful of people and should not be read as a pattern.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 3 | 60 months | 3 of 3 |
| 2017 | 4 | 57 months | 3 of 4 |
| 2018 | 2 | 60 months | 2 of 2 |
| 2025 | 1 | 137 months | 1 of 1 |
Mandatory Minimums and the Guideline Range
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 7 of the 10 people with that information recorded (70%). For 6 of the 10 (60%), the sentence was within the guideline range. For 4 (40%), it was below the range at the government's request. None was above the range, and none was below it without a government request.
In all 94 federal districts, 45% of arson sentences were within the guideline range. In all offenses in this district, the figure was 54%.
Guilty Pleas and Trials
9 of the 10 people (90%) pleaded guilty, and 1 was convicted after a trial. All 9 guilty pleas had a written plea agreement. Across all offenses in this district, guilty pleas were 93%, and for arson in all districts they were 93%.
The median prison term after a guilty plea was 60 months. The one person convicted at trial and sent to prison received 57 months. A single case cannot show how trial and plea sentences compare.
Supervised Release, Restitution, and Criminal History
All 10 were ordered to serve supervised release after prison, with a median term of 36 months. Restitution was ordered for 9 of the 10 (90%), and no fine was ordered for anyone.
By criminal history category, 10% were in the lowest category and 30% were in the highest. Court-martial records have no criminal history field, so that measure has no military counterpart.
When the Cases Were Sentenced
9 of the 10 people were sentenced in fiscal years 2016 to 2019, and 1 in fiscal years 2020 to 2025. The yearly table shows the years with cases. The one person in fiscal year 2025 had a median prison term of 137 months, which is higher than any other year listed, but it is a single case.
For the whole district, the cornerstone page on federal sentences in the Eastern District of Kentucky gives the broader numbers.
What These Numbers Cannot Show
The Commission counts only people who were convicted and sentenced. Acquittals and dismissals are not in the data, so the records say nothing about how many arson charges ended another way. They also do not give the facts of any case or the reasons for any sentence.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in the Eastern District of Kentucky (U.S. Sentencing Commission district label "Kentucky East") in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 whose offense type was "Arson" (10). Offense types are the Commission's OFFGUIDE categories.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- Federal Sentences in the Eastern District of Kentucky, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- Federal Drug Trafficking Sentences in the Eastern District of Kentucky, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Fraud, Theft, and Embezzlement Sentences in the Eastern District of Kentucky, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Firearms Sentences in the Eastern District of Kentucky, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Immigration Offense Sentences in the Eastern District of Kentucky, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.