Federal Arson Sentences in the District of North Dakota, FY2016–2025
15 people were sentenced for arson in the District of North Dakota in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, and all 15 pleaded guilty. The median prison term was 36 months (3 years), compared with 60 months across all 94 districts. Sentences below the guideline range at the government's request were the most c
Understanding Trends in Military Practice · 6 min read
Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › Federal Sentences in the District of North Dakota, FY2016–20 › Arson: District of North Dakota
In brief: 15 people were sentenced for arson in the District of North Dakota in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, and all 15 pleaded guilty. The median prison term was 36 months (3 years), compared with 60 months across all 94 districts. Sentences below the guideline range at the government's request were the most common result, at 67% (10).
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 15 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Guilty Pleas in Every Case
All 15 people (100%) pleaded guilty, and none was convicted after a trial. All 15 had a written plea agreement. No one in this group was sentenced after a straight plea with no agreement.
Across all 94 federal districts, 93% of arson cases ended in a guilty plea. For all offenses in this district, the rate was 97%.
Sentences Below the Guideline Range
The most common result was a sentence below the guideline range at the government's request: 67% (10). Another 13% (2) were below the range without a government request, 13% (2) were within the range, and 7% (1) were above it.
For arson across all 94 districts, 45% of sentences were within the range. For all offenses in this district, it was 34%. Here only 13% of arson sentences were within the range.
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 2 of the 15 people with that information recorded (13%).
How Long the Prison Terms Were
All 15 people received a prison term. The median was 36 months (3 years). A quarter received 44 months or more, and a quarter received 6 months or less. The nationwide median for arson was 60 months, which is higher than the median in this district.
The 36-month median is the same as the median for all offenses in this district. The terms are the terms imposed, not time served.
One Guideline Covers All the Cases
"Arson" is the U.S. Sentencing Commission's offense type. In this district, all 15 cases used one primary guideline: §2K1.4 (Arson). That makes the group more uniform than many other offense types.
Arson made up less than 1% of the 3,337 people sentenced in the district across these years.
Supervised Release, Restitution, and Criminal History
All 15 people (100%) were ordered to serve supervised release after prison, with a median term of 36 months. Restitution was ordered for 7 people (47%). No fine was ordered.
In criminal history, 47% were in category I (the lowest), and 7% were in category VI (the highest). Court-martial records have no criminal history field.
Yearly Counts Are Very Small
7 people were sentenced in fiscal years 2016 to 2019, and 8 in fiscal years 2020 to 2025. The yearly counts in the table are 1 to 4 people, and no cases appear for some years. Medians such as 180 months in 2016 and 2 months in 2025 each describe 1 or 2 people, so they are not trends.
The fiscal year runs from October through September.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1 | 180 months | 1 of 1 |
| 2018 | 3 | 36 months | 3 of 3 |
| 2019 | 3 | 16 months | 3 of 3 |
| 2020 | 4 | 17.5 months | 4 of 4 |
| 2022 | 1 | 48 months | 1 of 1 |
| 2024 | 1 | 44 months | 1 of 1 |
| 2025 | 2 | 2 months | 2 of 2 |
What the Records Leave Out
The Commission's data counts only people who were convicted and sentenced. It does not show dismissals, acquittals, the facts of a fire, or the reasons a court went below the range. Grand Forks AFB and Minot AFB are in this district, but courts-martial are tried in military courts, and these figures are federal only.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in the District of North Dakota (U.S. Sentencing Commission district label "North Dakota") in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 whose offense type was "Arson" (15). Offense types are the Commission's OFFGUIDE categories.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- Federal Sentences in the District of North Dakota, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- Federal Drug Trafficking Sentences in the District of North Dakota, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Immigration Offense Sentences in the District of North Dakota, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Firearms Sentences in the District of North Dakota, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Assault Sentences in the District of North Dakota, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.